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March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential


NEG NAO

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yeah I didnt like what the 12Z gfs was showing with that ridiculous long duration event.. this seems much more reasonable but still a great run...

 

Agree! As jm1220 said in these set-ups the models have a hard time on what energy to key on, this is def more reasonable then a 72 hr snow bomb loL. If true the monday morning commute will be a joy!  :sled:

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Out quicker than 12z.  That's the major difference (more like the Euro).

 

That makes more sense since since it's really rare for a snow to last days like the GFS was showing earlier.

The PV digging into the Lakes was an outlier solution compared to the other guidance.

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That makes more sense since since it's really rare for a snow to last days like the GFS was showing earlier.

The PV digging into the Lakes was an outlier solution compared to the other guidance.

Yep exactly. I remember there was a week in June around 2007 where it rained for like 7 days straight along a hung up front, that would be cool if it could happen in winter with snow.

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LI is at the same latitude as NYC and SSTs off coast are cold, no surprise

Haven't we learned yet SSTs don't mean much? It's all about track and wind direction at the surface and mid levels. If we get an east or SE surface wind we change over. If the surface is cold and we get a 850mb or 925 mb low to our west the mid level winds come out of the S or SE and we change over to ice or ice then rain. Sometimes it's about precip intensity (evaluation cooling) . Cold SSTs don't have much of anything to do with LI staying snow.

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Agree! As jm1220 said in these set-ups the models have a hard time on what energy to key on, this is def more reasonable then a 72 hr snow bomb loL. If true the monday morning commute will be a joy!  :sled:

this solution looks much more realistic and in-line with much of the guidance regarding duration of the system -- yeah monday morning should be a great day to travel into the city to start a new job regardless if its rain/snow/ice....

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Haven't we learned yet SSTs don't mean much? It's all about track and wind direction at the surface and mid levels. If we get an east or SE surface wind we change over. If the surface is cold and we get a 850mb or 925 mb low to our west the mid level winds come out of the S or SE and we change over to ice or ice then rain. Sometimes it's about precip intensity (evaluation cooling) . Cold SSTs don't have much of anything to do with LI staying snow.

Exactly-we have to pay as much attention to where the 850 low tracks for precip type as the surface low. Even if the surface low tracks south of you, mid level winds may be still screaming from the south and torching the mid levels, or it may happen too late and the surface is torched anyway. If the 850 low tracks north or west, it's definitely sleet and possibly freezing rain or plain rain.

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Haven't we learned yet SSTs don't mean much? It's all about track and wind direction at the surface and mid levels. If we get an east or SE surface wind we change over. If the surface is cold and we get a 850mb or 925 mb low to our west the mid level winds come out of the S or SE and we change over to ice or ice then rain. Sometimes it's about precip intensity (evaluation cooling) . Cold SSTs don't have much of anything to do with LI staying snow.

It certainly helps, low 50s in Dec vs mid 30s in March

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It certainly helps, low 50s in Dec vs mid 30s in March

It has minimal effects. It might keep us as a colder rain this time of year than in December if winds switch to SE but other than that LI changes over with the wind directions I mentioned in my last post.

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