IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 850's creep north of Philly at hour 117 with some mixing issues going on for that region. We're all moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 120 heavy snow continues..18z monday…all snow from ttn-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hour 120 is just epic, ripping snow for everyone here. Again looks like some icing issues on 95 for the Philly to Baltimore corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 at 120, there's 8"+ in NNJ with plenty more coming. North w/ the 850 from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Moderate to heavy snow pretty much all day Monday, that's the best way to describe it, especially from TTN northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 123 temps crash…snowing from phl-north. 12+ for the metro area major ice issues with some snow for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12"+ for NNJ at 123 with plenty more coming. I should just cut and paste and change the amount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Switching back to light snow after dark on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 1.00 of qpf thru 126 all snow ttn-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Weenie run! GFS outside of the 18z run yesterday has been steadfast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hudson Valley cashes in too big time. By 120/123 850 temps crash back down to southern jerz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Great hit this run for part 1 =... part 2 might be less this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 no follow up wave on this run..which is not surprising….def a trend towards a monday event over by monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 even LI stays all snow and does not mix! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Out quicker than 12z. That's the major difference (more like the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Out quicker than 12z. That's the major difference (more like the Euro). yeah I didnt like what the 12Z gfs was showing with that ridiculous long duration event.. this seems much more reasonable but still a great run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Punted offshore after midnight on Monday night. 30-36 hour event. That northern stream wave dropping down isn't as robust as 12z and doesn't drag it out as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 even LI stays all snow and does not mix! LI is at the same latitude as NYC and SSTs off coast are cold, no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 yeah I didnt like what the 12Z gfs was showing with that ridiculous long duration event.. this seems much more reasonable but still a great run... Agree! As jm1220 said in these set-ups the models have a hard time on what energy to key on, this is def more reasonable then a 72 hr snow bomb loL. If true the monday morning commute will be a joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Out quicker than 12z. That's the major difference (more like the Euro). That makes more sense since since it's really rare for a snow to last days like the GFS was showing earlier. The PV digging into the Lakes was an outlier solution compared to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That makes more sense since since it's really rare for a snow to last days like the GFS was showing earlier. The PV digging into the Lakes was an outlier solution compared to the other guidance. Yep exactly. I remember there was a week in June around 2007 where it rained for like 7 days straight along a hung up front, that would be cool if it could happen in winter with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So does this show a foot from Trenton north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LI is at the same latitude as NYC and SSTs off coast are cold, no surprise Haven't we learned yet SSTs don't mean much? It's all about track and wind direction at the surface and mid levels. If we get an east or SE surface wind we change over. If the surface is cold and we get a 850mb or 925 mb low to our west the mid level winds come out of the S or SE and we change over to ice or ice then rain. Sometimes it's about precip intensity (evaluation cooling) . Cold SSTs don't have much of anything to do with LI staying snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So does this show a foot from Trenton north? 9-10" unless ratios are better than 10:1..the bulk on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Agree! As jm1220 said in these set-ups the models have a hard time on what energy to key on, this is def more reasonable then a 72 hr snow bomb loL. If true the monday morning commute will be a joy! this solution looks much more realistic and in-line with much of the guidance regarding duration of the system -- yeah monday morning should be a great day to travel into the city to start a new job regardless if its rain/snow/ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 this solution looks much more realistic and in-line with much of the guidance regarding duration of the system -- yeah monday morning should be a great day to travel into the city to start a new job regardless if its rain/snow/ice....Good luck With the new job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Haven't we learned yet SSTs don't mean much? It's all about track and wind direction at the surface and mid levels. If we get an east or SE surface wind we change over. If the surface is cold and we get a 850mb or 925 mb low to our west the mid level winds come out of the S or SE and we change over to ice or ice then rain. Sometimes it's about precip intensity (evaluation cooling) . Cold SSTs don't have much of anything to do with LI staying snow. Exactly-we have to pay as much attention to where the 850 low tracks for precip type as the surface low. Even if the surface low tracks south of you, mid level winds may be still screaming from the south and torching the mid levels, or it may happen too late and the surface is torched anyway. If the 850 low tracks north or west, it's definitely sleet and possibly freezing rain or plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Haven't we learned yet SSTs don't mean much? It's all about track and wind direction at the surface and mid levels. If we get an east or SE surface wind we change over. If the surface is cold and we get a 850mb or 925 mb low to our west the mid level winds come out of the S or SE and we change over to ice or ice then rain. Sometimes it's about precip intensity (evaluation cooling) . Cold SSTs don't have much of anything to do with LI staying snow. It certainly helps, low 50s in Dec vs mid 30s in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 In order to get the back end coastal you need the PV to split at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It certainly helps, low 50s in Dec vs mid 30s in March It has minimal effects. It might keep us as a colder rain this time of year than in December if winds switch to SE but other than that LI changes over with the wind directions I mentioned in my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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