jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yes….but they have moved a bit north from 00z. I can't say the op is out to lunch, but the ensemble mean is a lot colder Trends matter more at this point than any particular solution. We'll have to watch those over the next 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 all this talk up and down, but what at this point does any of this mean? 12" 24" or 6? And im talking for Suffolk county here. Its seems even this far out or (close for some people) nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Trends matter more at this point than any particular solution. We'll have to watch those over the next 2-3 days. The ensembles seem to agree that this is a monday show and over by monday night…..not prolonged like the gfs. The ensemble mean reminds me of February 10th 2014, just colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The 12z NAVGEM is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The ensembles seem to agree that this is a monday show and over by monday night…..not prolonged like the gfs. The ensemble mean reminds me of February 10th 2014, just colder Usually these strung out systems are the models not being able to key in on one wave to deliver the goods. I'd say one harder hitting event is more likely too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Usually these strung out systems are the models not being able to key in on one wave to deliver the goods. I'd say one harder hitting event is more likely too. The Euro ensembles have about 30 hrs or so of precip falling. The snow probably isn't all the heavy (verbatim) if it shows about .75" liquid equivalent. This solution would probably end up meaning an accumulation on grass mostly **depending on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 PbP ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 From met HM in the mid Atlantic sub forum (not Henry from Accuweather) "There's one simple difference that not only affects winter storm outcome early next week but also temperatures in general after...Euro holds pv into western Canada. If that occurs, it will basically taint all of next week for wintry weather." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 PbP ? Play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I seem to recall that many of you have said to trust the ensembles over the Op in the medium to long range, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I seem to recall that many of you have said to trust the ensembles over the Op in the medium to long range, correct? In general yes, but with today's non-event the Euro ensembles actually agreed with the Op overall 4-5 days back when it showed a relatively big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Thankyou you'll should have been around when everyone was on the twc and all the other weatherboards we got kicked off many moons ago talk about healthy debates LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Really hard to tell exact details based off the 24 hour panels but it looks like the 12z JMA was a pretty big hit for the area, especially from I-80 northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Total QPF on the Euro ensemble mean is 0.90"-1.00" for 90% of the area with a bit more for Central and Eastern Long Island and a bit less for southern NJ south of Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The EPS control run is more bullish with 1"+ in a large swath from Trenton into Central Upstate NY including southern and Central New England including the cities of New York, Boston, Springfield, Pittsburgh and Providence. Snow maps JP areas from NYC proper north to Central New England. Sharp cut off south of I-78. Warning criteria snowfall for all of Upton's CWA. 6" or less for Monmouth County and points south. Far southern NJ 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 anyone have a link to the 18z dgex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 anyone have a link to the 18z dgex? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Look under "Model Extras" on the left column. It's not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Look under "Model Extras" on the left column. It's not out yet. thanks don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 A lot of the updated 12z analogs are ice storms for a majority of the area. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 18z gfs is going to be another great run. Pv is not split and surface/850's already south of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Sunday morning is dry on the 18z GFS. Some light precip is in Central and Southern NJ during the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Precipitation starting to pick up a little during the afternoon. Stuff on Sunday is spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 102 540 line is south of ttn…surface/850's south of phl light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Steadier snow moving in around dark Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yet another really good hit on the GFS, have to take into account its relative consistency regarding the WAA snow potential. We should all be snowing steadily Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 105 is plenty cold from phl-north….over-running moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hour 111 moderate snow moving in, snow right down to Philly, mix bag south of Philly, plain rain for ACY and Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 114 surface is south of mason dixon line..850's around phl…and 540 is by ttn…heavy snow for the metro area and nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This might be the biggest hit yet, bit time over running snows Monday morning. Nobody in this forum has any mixing issues. It's plenty juiced as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 117 heavy snow from ttn-north rain/snow line just south of phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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