NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Lets have a vote on who should do PBP!!! Can we draft someone from another forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NW NJ (basically Morris/Sussex/Warren/Passiac countuies) and the interior SE NY posters N of 287 are almost all frozen on the Euro run....obviously their weather can differ from the I-95 crowd and on this run it does. The temps probably don't get out of the 20s the entire storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NW NJ (basically Morris/Sussex/Warren/Passiac countuies) and the interior SE NY posters N of 287 are almost all frozen on the Euro run....obviously their weather can differ from the I-95 crowd and on this run it does. The temps probably don't get out of the 20s the entire storm there. Thank You! A met finally chiming in, and a respected one at that. That's one of our biggest problems around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 People only care about where they live, what will happen in their backyard. It's simple, no one will ever be satisfied by the PbP because it doesn't include someone. If you want to know what is going on in Your back yard, why don't you look it up yourself. Yanks does a great job. Posting the Major cities is the right thing to do, not other locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 HM, on 26 Feb 2014 - 2:09 PM, said: There's one simple difference that not only affects winter storm outcome early next week but also temperatures in general after...Euro holds pv into western Canada. If that occurs, it will basically taint all of next week for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z euro attempted to split the PV, in return confluence is slightly further north as well. This seemingly minor change in PV structure allows for a weakness in the Northeast US. At 00z the pv held firm and did not split. This allowed confluence to remain further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The CMC is pretty cold, in fact i think it would probably jackpot areas in central nj, The gradient gets pushed pretty far south in response to the PV placement. A ton of spread on the 12z guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The CMC is pretty cold, in fact i think it would probably jackpot areas in central nj, The gradient gets pushed pretty far south in response to the PV placement. A ton of spread on the 12z guidance today. The snow accumulation map has a 50mm bullseye over Monmouth County of all places on the GGEM. But we all know that any model that bullseyes Monmouth County is bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The CMC is pretty cold, in fact i think it would probably jackpot areas in central nj, The gradient gets pushed pretty far south in response to the PV placement. A ton of spread on the 12z guidance today. I don't know, for being 3.5-4.5 days out for the southern most major model having the all snow/sleet/ice line just S of PHL and the most northern major model having the all snow/sleet/ice line NE PA and NW NJ its a fairly tight spread. Course for some borderline locations it could make a big difference in terms of weather but overall pretty tight agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The snow accumulation map has a 50mm bullseye over Monmouth County of all places on the GGEM. But we all know that any model that bullseyes Monmouth County is bogus. I would think the euro ensembles come in colder then the op, it seems to be this recent trend as of late. Lots of time with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I don't know, for being 3.5-4.5 days out for the southern most major model having the all snow/sleet/ice line just S of PHL and the most northern major model having the all snow/sleet/ice line NE PA and NW NJ its a fairly tight spread. Course for some borderline locations it could make a big difference in terms of weather but overall pretty tight agreement. The Gfs idv ensembles had a ton of spread….from nothing-rain-heavy snow. We are going to see changes as we move forward, at least thats what i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 102 euro ens surface is in se upsate Ny and 850's are by ttn…light qpf in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 108 surface is crashing..by hpn and 850's around ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 For Sunday afternoon the 12z ECWMF ensemble mean looks warm at the surface but cold a loft. 850mb freezing line on a W-E line near TTN and surface freezing line starting in the LHV and sinking southward as the heavier snow moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 By hour 114 both the surface and 850mb freezing lines are south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 114 surface and 850's by ttn…looks colder then the op so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hour 120 the heavier precip moving in, colder than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Op Euro in essence is a coastal storm thats too far west, it more or less does not even have the overrunning event at all...you can argue it does but to me its just a bit of precip developing in your usual WAA ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hr 120 its snow from ttn north..colder then the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 To give everyone a good idea of exactly where the R/S line is setting up, looks to be somewhere between TTN and PHL and then SE of NYC cutting through western Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not shocked. Colder than the op was expected here and certainly a good sign. BUT, what jumped out at me on the Euro Ens is that Allsnow/Yanks started at 102 --- means we still have a long way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hour 132 Philly proper now cold enough for snow, weak LP offshore, looks like the GFS more than the Euro OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 For Sunday afternoon the 12z ECWMF ensemble mean looks warm at the surface but cold a loft. 850mb freezing line on a W-E line near TTN and surface freezing line starting in the LHV and sinking southward as the heavier snow moves in. Thanks for the PBP. Describing features in two dimensions is a helpful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ensembles look great for nyc metro and from ttn north…..warmish for southern nj and philly area... comparing the 00z ensembles of the euro its a tad warmer for areas south of ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 By hour 138 the heavier or steadier precip is offshore. Still some QPF as far west as Pittsburgh so thinking is a few members hold back more energy like the GFS op shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ensembles look great for nyc metro and from ttn north…..warmish for southern nj and philly area... comparing the 00z ensembles of the euro its a tad warmer for areas south of ttn so NYC-LI-SWCT and LHV still look great on the ensembles and the OP was too warm. almost in line with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Really good support on the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean for a very snowy period centered around Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 For some of our Philly posters, the ensemble mean is warm for areas south of Philly for a majority of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 so NYC-LI-SWCT and LHV still look great on the ensembles and the OP was too warm. almost in line with the GFS Yes….but they have moved a bit north from 00z. I can't say the op is out to lunch, but the ensemble mean is a lot colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro op has not handled the -epo pattern nor the northern jet stream very well this season. What makes anyone think its handling the pv correctly (splitting it)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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