jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Euro has crapped the bed earlier this winter when the gfs was superior, as well as today's storm so the Euro is not a godsend model by any means especially in this time frame. It's often deadly within 3 days but it's verification scores are similar to the other models at day 5 and beyond. And don't give me if nailed the previous storm when it was further west either. That was a large, pure miller A, something the Euro tends to do much better on. I think we have a chance here due to the western EPO ridge being so strong and forcing the PV south over the coming week. That could suppress the storm track enough to allow for a nice outcome, but if that setup weakens and it's more zonal, I don't see a way out of getting slop or rain and congrats-ing Lake Placid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EURO has been too wrapped up lately in the medium range...FWIW jma looks inland also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Honestly, though the euro hasn't been great, no model has.....even the hi res short term ones. Remember though, that the euro was the model that mostly held onto the snowy solutions during our very snowy period. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Predictable that the weenies runs are hugged and bad runs dismissed...bottom line all solutions on the table this far out but if you read the board this morning it was as if people locked in on the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Euro is still 1"+ north of I-80 with a lot of that falling as either frozen precipitation or freezing precipitation. It was overall not a great run for much of the area, but it was just that, one single run with a lot of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It seems like the Euro has done terrible right after they upgraded it. I don't think they upgraded it. I believe they downgraded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The 12z NAVGEM is still suppressed so at least that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Euro brought back the big storm for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think most of the issues with the play by plays are the same issues as when I tried to do play by plays lol.....there is not enough meteorological knowledge injected into them. It is basically just the reading of images on maps hyping up a storm, just to pull it back when the model jumps ship. Even the reasons given as to why they say the models are wrong in showing such a solution really do not make much sense or validate anything. I personally feel as if unless earthlight or a met is doing the play by play, I cannot get anything more useful out of it than if I just looked at the maps myself. I enjoy that people are posting their opinions of model output, but just as when I have done it and been wrong in my opinions, it is very annoying to just sway with each model run and get everyone hyped up that might think those people doing the play by play are trained.....especially when they are arguing for pages and pages of the thread. It can be very misleading to the average hobbyist and turn the educated hobbyists away Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM Ensembles look nice. None of them show an inland runner like the Euro http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM Ensembles look nice. None of them show an inland runner like the Euro http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Let's see what the euro ensembles show..hopefully the operational had a one time blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So two monster hits (GGEM and GFS) and one that was much warmer. I dunno. I simply look at the strength and position of that high and have a really hard time believing the precip gets that far N and temps that warm. Long way to go, but if I'm a betting man, I'd say the Euro Ens will be further S and E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM Ensembles look nice. None of them show an inland runner like the Euro http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm I've never heard of anyone using the GGEM ensembles for forecasting purposes. Taking a blend of the Euro and Euro ensembles will give you the best forecast 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So two monster hits (GGEM and GFS) and one that was much warmer. I dunno. I simply look at the strength and position of that high and have a really hard time believing the precip gets that far N and temps that warm. Long way to go, but if I'm a betting man, I'd say the Euro Ens will be further S and E... The Euro has a weaker high and north of where the other models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Let's see what the euro ensembles show..hopefully the operational had a one time blipeuro is essentially alone as far as op runs. Methinks its a blip. If it continues tonight then maybe its a trend on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 CMC was a nice hit like the GFS, EURO looks like the only warm model thus far today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So two monster hits (GGEM and GFS) and one that was much warmer. I dunno. I simply look at the strength and position of that high and have a really hard time believing the precip gets that far N and temps that warm. Long way to go, but if I'm a betting man, I'd say the Euro Ens will be further S and E... It almost always is South and East of OP. I'll be curious how it compares to 0z ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Euro will probably show something entirely different tonight. And then something entirely different again tomorrow at this time. It's one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I've never heard of anyone using the GGEM ensembles for forecasting purposes. Taking a blend of the Euro and Euro ensembles will give you the best forecast 90% of the time. Then what's the point of having the other models if the Euro and its ensembles are always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I've never heard of anyone using the GGEM ensembles for forecasting purposes. Taking a blend of the Euro and Euro ensembles will give you the best forecast 90% of the time. The GGEM ensembles have been pretty spot on this winter. They did especially well with the post Super Bowl storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Here is a model for you, the 12z NAVGEM has zero precipitation north of NYC for the duration of the run through hr 144. It's normally known for being too far suppressed so that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Here is a model for you, the 12z NAVGEM has zero precipitation north of NYC for the duration of the run through hr 144. It's normally known for being too far suppressed so that's a good sign. CMC, GGEM, GFS have shown colder solutions with the EURO being ALOT warmer, it raises a red flag for sure TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Have to chuckle at all the folks who were guaranteeing temps in the teens/low 20s, based on the GFS, as part of their argument for why sun angle won't matter. Yeah, sun angle won't matter much if it's rain. Bottom line is we're 4-5 days away and we're getting way too fixated on the details of each model rather than recognizing we have a major winter storm coming and we simply don't have good enough science or computing power to nail down what's going to happen with any certainty this far out (let alone 2-3 days out). Sit back, relax and watch the models all converge (for the most part) on whatever the solution will be - those error bars will get smaller as we get closer to the event (just like the hurricane uncertainty cones they show - we need uncertainty cones on snowfall, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Could the late Feb sun angle be effecting the euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Very little snow for everyone. Plain rain makes it to hpn. You are wrong. Plain and simple Everyone? 10-12" for up this way. Not everyone lives on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Everyone? 10-12" for up this way. Not everyone lives on the coast That's exactly what I was saying. I loved how he cherry picked HPN, right on the coast as his basis. It's plenty of snow for Orange County and surrounding areas, just not as good as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Precisely, not a knock on anybody. But details would be appreciated. If this was a more localized forum then you could prolly get away with that. But, liek i said if you have ppl reading from DC-BOS than a lil context goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Let's hope the gfs holds serve.. The euro looks like a complete wash. Hoping for one more "nice storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Precisely, not a knock on anybody. But details would be appreciated. If this was a more localized forum then you could prolly get away with that. But, liek i said if you have ppl reading from DC-BOS than a lil context goes a long way. The fact of the matter is we have posters here from the Philly forums/ the Upstate NY/PA forums/Mid-Atlantic forums and New England forums. It's not that hard to give a general idea of what's going on outside of the immediate NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Could the late Feb sun angle be effecting the euro pbp? Since all the globals produce forecasts of high and low temps, year round, including during the 16 day period (the Euro control run) centered on the Equinoxes when the sun angle is changing most rapidly, I'm pretty sure insolation is built into the models somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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