SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 we pretty much get nothing in terms of snow lol so much for all that sun angle banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hour 132 all areas flip to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The surface freezing line is over KMMU, that's not plain rain north of I-80 unless you're on the GWB. Very little snow for everyone. Plain rain makes it to hpn. You are wrong. Plain and simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z Euro: The PV is further north and shortwave energy more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Gone by midnight Monday night, looks nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hour 132 all areas flip to heavy snow. no it doesn't. the precip is over by the time it's cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro is now the warmest model out there. The handling of the PV is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Another run, another solution. It's 4-5 days out so that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Just toss it- NYC motto for warm storm runs ehh? Like forky said, this is always a worry if you start seeing a N trend. Yes, it's one run, not a trend. Could be the start of one though. The PV orientation doesn't allow a strong HP to settle over top of NY in SE Canada. So the heights amplify a bit more along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DONT PANIC. The small changes (weaker ULL in SE Canada, it was farther N) and the shortwave associated with the storm were faster...all it takes is a tick better in both cases and its back to snow....but I'm sure people will go off the deep end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I can't blame Yanks, stormvista does show snow on the tail end so he has a right to say it is snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro still shows a few inches for NYC with more to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro's had a general north idea for a while now... the snowy solution was only there for two runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I can't blame Yanks, stormvista does show snow on the tail end so he has a right to say it is snow... It changes over between 132-138 those amounts look very suspect to me for the metro area. Upstate ny sure, but not northern jersey and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 bottom line its warmer, we will see if it's a trend, too far out to worry about p-type.. still 4-6 days out.. plenty of time to figure it out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Euro was really off for what was supposed to be today's storm, so I wouldn't hop on the Euro train just yet. It's a complex pattern and there's still plenty of days to go, so take it day by day. The Euro would have to show something like for a few more times for it to be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hr 126 warm. Rain from hpn-south. Upstate my and western pa crushed. Ignore yanks pbp it's further north That's why no one should get excited about this storm yet. We need a very strong and suppressed PV to have a good shot at much snow from this-if the PV is weaker or the energy too strong and pumping up the eastern ridge, we have ourselves a long washout or icestorm inland. We should mostly just be expecting a storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It changes over between 132-138 those amounts look very suspect to me for the metro area. Upstate ny sure, but not northern jersey and NYC the precip is done by 132. we get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 With the high slamming in from the plains towards the east coast and the relatively elongated vortex over most of southern canada I cannot see any way that this ends up much north of where the GFS shows it, if anything suppression worries me more... This is not your classic SWFE that ends up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro's had a general north idea for a while now... the snowy solution was only there for two runs The snowy solution was there at 0z. The point is that it's too early to see if this is a trend or not. Also, the Euro is by itself with this solution. BTW, I'm still waiting for my snowstorm today that the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Can you guys please calm down its 1 OP run 5 days out . Do you guys think every run is going to be a carbon copy of where the baroclinic zone is going to set up . How about you take the whole suite , blend it and sit and wait a day before we call 1 op run a " TREND " . Numerical solutions 120 hours have some spread to them. Relax everyone , a wide spread winter storm is coming in this anomalous winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the precip is done by 132. we get nothing This is quicker then the rest of the models also. Nothing lingers into Tuesday. Just a Monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 With the high slamming in from the plains towards the east coast and the relatively elongated vortex over most of southern canada I cannot see any way that this ends up much north of where the GFS shows it, if anything suppression worries me more... This is not your classic SWFE that ends up north-strongly agree!Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 With the high slamming in from the plains towards the east coast and the relatively elongated vortex over most of southern canada I cannot see any way that this ends up much north of where the GFS shows it, if anything suppression worries me more... This is not your classic SWFE that ends up north The PV was more pronounced on all the models at 12z today except the Euro. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 With the high slamming in from the plains towards the east coast and the relatively elongated vortex over most of southern canada I cannot see any way that this ends up much north of where the GFS shows it, if anything suppression worries me more... This is not your classic SWFE that ends up north was going to post something regarding the general insane cold push similar to this. the EURO doesn't really match up with the other US/global models currently. it also crapped the bed with todays storm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 With the high slamming in from the plains towards the east coast and the relatively elongated vortex over most of southern canada I cannot see any way that this ends up much north of where the GFS shows it, if anything suppression worries me more... This is not your classic SWFE that ends up north Agreed, with that monster northern stream wave rotating southward on the GFS I'm starting to doubt the stronger back end wave and feel that a more sheared out approach like the GGEM or GFS is the way to go. That arctic wave is going to eventually punt this OTS, question is when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The PV was more pronounced on all the models at 12z today except the Euro. Weird. Look at the terrible job Euro did with todays storm. Remember it had several runs where it was the only model showing a significant storm for today. GFS and others beat it terribly. Now today it shows rain, after last night's run showed temps falling into the teens during the snow? I don't know what has happened to Euro. Used to be a great model but now its terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Look at the terrible job Euro did with todays storm. Remember it had several runs where it was the only model showing a significant storm for today. GFS and others beat it terribly. Now today it shows rain, after last night's run showed temps falling into the teens during the snow? I don't know what has happened to Euro. Used to be a great model but now its terrible. It seems like the Euro has done terrible right after they upgraded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EURO has been too wrapped up lately in the medium range...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 was going to post something regarding the general insane cold push similar to this. the EURO doesn't really match up with the other US/global models currently. it also crapped the bed with todays storm as well The Euro has crapped the bed earlier this winter when the gfs was superior, as well as today's storm so the Euro is not a godsend model by any means especially in this time frame. It's often deadly within 3 days but it's verification scores are similar to the other models at day 5 and beyond. And don't give me if nailed the previous storm when it was further west either. That was a large, pure miller A, something the Euro tends to do much better on. The solution depends on the northern stream features like the PV, which models like the gfs have a better handle on. Now that doesn't mean it's wrong by any means but it doesn't mean it's right either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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