pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Are you saying that the models are overdone? Because every single piece of guidance right now is showing this. Yes. Daytime max std deviation for NYC in early March is approximately 9 to 9.5 degrees. A temp in the mid teens is accordingly over a 3 sigma departure. This is equivalent to a daytime max in mid January of about 5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Did eastern NJ cease to exist on this map? Yes, ignoring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yes. Daytime max std deviation for NYC in early March is approximately 9 to 9.5 degrees. A temp in the mid teens is accordingly over a 3 sigma departure. This is equivalent to a daytime max in mid January of about 5F. March 2007 had temps in the teens during the sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 March 2007 had temps in the teens during the sleet storm And this event which I posted in the other forum...a clipper with temps in the low to mid teens during the daylight hours http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/07-Mar-07-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 March 2007 had temps in the teens during the sleet storm In the AM hours, the temp passed 20 in early afternoon on March 7. This is also one event of the many hundreds of early March storms we have had. Pointing out one example as a means to justify a higher probability of the event occurring is a logical fallacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 We're in a perfect position now.....the good thing. We're in a perfect position now....the bad thing ! Chances are this will trend one way or another, and these events usually tend to trend further north with the overrunning. It's a thin line we're on here between 12" of snow staying snow, and mainly rain with 1" of snow. At this time, I feel the chance of 12" is very low, 6" is low, and 3" is a fair chance. This storm definitely has potential, but I would be very cautious about biting on to any model runs at this point 5 days out. Cheers! May we be very stormy! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yes, ignoring it. Why? Just give him the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It snowed in October 2011, with a sun angle a month after summer ended. April 2004 6"+ fell on long Island S+ rates even at around freezing overrides sun angle which I have to admit is overrated. I have seen moderate snow in mid January not stick. Many factors go into the equation. Blizzard of 1888 (Mid March) temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 In the AM hours, the temp passed 20 in early afternoon on March 7. So what is ur argument? That we will max out in the 20's? Okay but more then half that 2007 sleet storm was spent in the teens. As forecast right now this will be the coldest march storm since 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Why? Just give him the info Because the map is cut off and I don't know the reason why. I don't know if it's because it's painting no snow for that area or because of some graphic error. It doesn't show a gradual cut off. 9"+ to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So what is ur argument? That we will max out in the 20's? Okay but more then half that 2007 sleet storm was spent in the teens. As forecast right now this will be the coldest march storm since 2007 That doesn't change the fact that it is HIGHLY unlikely to occur in the fashion in which it's modeled. Daytime temps in the teens in early March along the coast are almost unheard of. The fact that you can only cite one example in recent history is proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 In the AM hours, the temp passed 20 in early afternoon on March 7. This is also one event of the many hundreds of early March storms we have had. Pointing out one example as a means to justify a higher probability of the event occurring is a logical fallacy. But those hundreds of March storms did not have a -epo a pv to our north with a high pressure draining cold air into our area. You ignoring the set-up is more ignorant, especially when ur comparing it to diff set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It snowed in October 2011, with a sun angle a month after summer ended. April 2004 6"+ fell on long Island S+ rates even at around freezing overrides sun angle which I have to admit is overrated. I have seen moderate snow in mid January not stick. Many factors go into the equation. Blizzard of 1888 (Mid March) temps in the teens to be fair, the sun angle is just as strong now as it was during the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That doesn't change the fact that it is HIGHLY unlikely to occur in the fashion in which it's modeled. Daytime temps in the teens in early March along the coast are almost unheard of. The fact that you can only cite one example in recent history is proof of that. just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it never will. fact is this storm is going to have a HISTORICALLY cold air mass for the beginning of march and with temps around 20 degrees sticking should not be an issue what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That doesn't change the fact that it is HIGHLY unlikely to occur in the fashion in which it's modeled. Daytime temps in the teens in early March along the coast are almost unheard of. The fact that you can only cite one example in recent history is proof of that.this is an epic season with an epic -epo. ...it is possible that it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it never will. fact is this storm is going to have a HISTORICALLY cold air mass for the beginning of march and with temps around 20 degrees sticking should not be an issue what so ever. He has been proven wrong Many times this winter with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That doesn't change the fact that it is HIGHLY unlikely to occur in the fashion in which it's modeled. Daytime temps in the teens in early March along the coast are almost unheard of. The fact that you can only cite one example in recent history is proof of that. Chris , this is going to be a cold storm at the surface , You prob don`t see 12 inches of snow accumulate on 6th and 57 in the city, ( BUT MOST ON THE BOARD WILL ) this is going to be a widespread Snow event . NYC UHI should not be the measuring stick for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it never will. fact is this storm is going to have a HISTORICALLY cold air mass for the beginning of march and with temps around 20 degrees sticking should not be an issue what so ever. I didn't say it never would. I said it was highly unlikely, as in <5% chance of occurring (which I think matches up statistically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The snow will stick if it's cold enough and heavy enough, just as it does all year. The snow will have to be a little heavier now than it would in January for the same snow accumulation, but anything from light snow and up with temperatures in the 20s will be fine everywhere. The snow was sticking to the roads here in Midtown this morning. The sun angle is really overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 this is an epic season with an epic -epo. ...it is possible that it will happen. Him ignoring the pattern and comparing this to a avg march storm is ignorant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 He has been proven wrong Many times this winter with the cold. Really? Where? Did NYC go below 0? No. Did NYC have a high in the single digits? No. Stats are important, especially when you are considering computer models that incorporate them significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Chris , this is going to be a cold storm at the surface , You prob don`t see 12 inches of snow accumulate on 6th and 57 in the city, ( BUT MOST ON THE BOARD WILL ) this is going to be a widespread Snow event . NYC UHI should not be the measuring stick for this. welcome to the march 2-4 banter thread paul.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ok how about guys take the sun angle existential discussion to the other thread and we discuss the Euro? Isnt it about time?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Chris , this is going to be a cold storm at the surface , You prob don`t see 12 inches of snow accumulate on 6th and 57 in the city, ( BUT MOST ON THE BOARD WILL ) this is going to be a widespread Snow event . NYC UHI should not be the measuring stick for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The PV looks a bit further south so far on the Euro than its last run. Sunday morning the best snows are to our northwest however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Chris , this is going to be a cold storm at the surface , You prob don`t see 12 inches of snow accumulate on 6th and 57 in the city, ( BUT MOST ON THE BOARD WILL ) this is going to be a widespread Snow event . NYC UHI should not be the measuring stick for this. I was referencing daytime highs in the teens on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Really? Where? Did NYC go below 0? No. Did NYC have a high in the single digits? No. Stats are important, especially when you are considering computer models that incorporate them significantly. Enjoy ur single digit run Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The PV looks a bit further south so far on the Euro than its last run. just noticed that on SV should translate to a better setup down the road yank.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Chris , this is going to be a cold storm at the surface , You prob don`t see 12 inches of snow accumulate on 6th and 57 in the city, ( BUT MOST ON THE BOARD WILL ) this is going to be a widespread Snow event . NYC UHI should not be the measuring stick for this. silly question but does Brooklyn have uhi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 some comic relief for whats going in here fellas.....enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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