Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If the 500mb digs even deeper the coastal could enhance snowfall...wild scenarios possiblemarch 1888 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GEFS support the op. Heaviest snow Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 1"+ all areas on the GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 1"+ all areas on the GEFS mean.wow, nice signal there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ralph a lot of the individual GFS runs are warm for the city, as it takes the low too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 There is actually 3 GEFS members that develop a pretty big secondary on the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 wow, nice signal there! THANK YOU for starting the other thread regarding snow in march. some people just don't know what upper teens/low 20's can do with snowfall regardless being early march or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 1"+ all areas on the GEFS mean. That's impressive this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 There is actually 3 GEFS members that develop a pretty big secondary on the stalled front. we get hit with the overrunning and we can get that LP to develop as well that would be nothing short of a blockbuster storm in total. plenty of times for trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ralph a lot of the individual GFS runs are warm for the city, as it takes the low too far inland. Ensemble members are pretty useless for temperature profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Impossible, it's March! It's highly improbable. Daytime highs in the teens in early March are several standard deviations below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ralph a lot of the individual GFS runs are warm for the city, as it takes the low too far inland.which low? There r several impulses coming thru. Its the 'caboose' wave I'm watching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 which low? There r several impulses coming thru. Its the 'caboose' wave I'm watching.... that caboose blows up.....well you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 that caboose blows up.....well you do the math hey Red, maybe this was the Wiggum Storm just delayed a day ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not sure why people are arguing about sun angles and melting for a storm that's 6 days away, but if you're going to argue, at least get the science right. Yes, the sun angle is significantly higher in early March than in early January, so yes, significantly greater snow melting rates will occur during the day, especially between about 9 am and 3 pm, for the same surface temperature. It's a pretty simple equation where accumulation rate = snowfall rate - snow melting rate and the melting rate is unquestionably greater now. However, at 28F, for example, that melting rate is probably about 1/4" per hour now vs. maybe 1/16" per hour in early January, which means that as long as we get a heavy enough snowfall rate, the snow will still accumulate - but it won't accumulate as well as it would in early January - that's a simple fact. One point to keep in mind, however: once the snow starts accumulating on paved/dark surfaces, that snow layer will begin reflecting the incoming UV radiation, greatly reducing the snow melting rate from what it was prior to the snow covering up the darker/paved surfaces. Time to repost this for all the people who somehow seem to think sun angle doesn't matter. It does. As I said above, for the same given temperature, significantly more snow will melt during daylight hours (especially between 9 and 3) in early March than in early January and that will be exacerbated on paved/dark surfaces that absorb UV radiation (and convert it to IR/heat), until they are covered and then that factor won't matter, as the snow will reflect most of the UV. Moderate to heavy snow will still accumulate - just not as much, since the melting rate is absolutely greater in March, due to the sun. Just look at today - we've had most of an inch melt in the ~2 hours since the snow stopped here (granted, that was mostly full sun and not indirect sunlight, but just illustrating the concept). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hey Red, maybe this was the Wiggum Storm just delayed a day ;-) Delayed but not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The weenie map on WxBell for the 12z GFS is pretty crazy. Just to give a general breakdown. The Harrisburg area is 30-36", Western NJ is 18-22", NYC proper is 10"+ with something in between 10 and 20" for NE NJ depending on your exact location. LHV area is also 12"+ with the Sullivan County area in the upper teens or lower 20". Same for Western, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah a few GFS ensembles throw a weak overrunning disturbance and hold the ULL back, then blow it up, but not until Wednesday ish lol....Still a long way out guys a lot can change. Wouldn't be shocked if EURO throws something totally different at us. Yanks, I know temps aren't important, but when you have LP over MD you can assume its warm which is what I was talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's highly improbable. Daytime highs in the teens in early March are several standard deviations below normal. Are you saying that the models are overdone? Because every single piece of guidance right now is showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 hey Red, maybe this was the Wiggum Storm just delayed a day ;-) we'll call it that then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Time to repost this for all the people who somehow seem to think sun angle doesn't matter. It does. As I said above, for the same given temperature, significantly more snow will melt during daylight hours (especially between 9 and 3) in early March than in early January and that will be exacerbated on paved/dark surfaces that absorb UV radiation (and convert it to IR/heat), until they are covered and then that factor won't matter, as the snow will reflect most of the UV. Moderate to heavy snow will still accumulate - just not as much, since the melting rate is absolutely greater in March, due to the sun. Just look at today - we've had most of an inch melt in the ~2 hours since the snow stopped here (granted, that was mostly full sun and not indirect sunlight, but just illustrating the concept). What's the melting rate at 20 degrees? And no one is arguing it will melt after. Most in general think with temps progged by the model to be as low at the upper teens and low 20s that melting won't be too big of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah a few GFS ensembles throw a weak overrunning disturbance and hold the ULL back, then blow it up, but not until Wednesday ish lol....Still a long way out guys a lot can change. Wouldn't be shocked if EURO throws something totally different at us. Yanks, I know temps aren't important, but when you have LP over MD you can assume its warm which is what I was talking about I disagree respectfully, low pressure will be riding the stationary front, anything north of the track should be all snow, or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 we'll call it that then we shouldn't....that would be the kiss of death! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I disagree respectfully, low pressure will be riding the stationary front, anything north of the track should be all snow. the 0 degree 850 never gets past C.NJ during the warmest part of the storm on the OP and ensembles aren't the best to determine freezing line issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 we shouldn't....that would be the kiss of death! :-) FINE! you are hereby ban from naming storms after you again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro time, let's do our best not to crash the server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Time to repost this for all the people who somehow seem to think sun angle doesn't matter. It does. As I said above, for the same given temperature, significantly more snow will melt during daylight hours (especially between 9 and 3) in early March than in early January and that will be exacerbated on paved/dark surfaces that absorb UV radiation (and convert it to IR/heat), until they are covered and then that factor won't matter, as the snow will reflect most of the UV. Moderate to heavy snow will still accumulate - just not as much, since the melting rate is absolutely greater in March, due to the sun. Just look at today - we've had most of an inch melt in the ~2 hours since the snow stopped here (granted, that was mostly full sun and not indirect sunlight, but just illustrating the concept). Of course it plays some role especially when it comes to melting, that role is enhanced if temperatures are closer to freezing, but it's overstated far too often. The March superstorm had snow very far to the south. Models are getting into pretty good agreement with the overrunning, but the consolidated coastal is still the wildcard and that will have to be watched. It is only Wednesday so there's still a lot that can happen but there's a good chance we see a period of snow by late weekend to early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I disagree respectfully, low pressure will be riding the stationary front, anything north of the track should be all snow, or close to it. A lot of GFS ensembles do go inland, thats all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The weenie map on WxBell for the 12z GFS is pretty crazy. Just to give a general breakdown. The Harrisburg area is 30-36", Western NJ is 18-22", NYC proper is 10"+ with something in between 10 and 20" for NE NJ depending on your exact location. LHV area is also 12"+ with the Sullivan County area in the upper teens or lower 20". Same for Western, CT. Did eastern NJ cease to exist on this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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