Weathergun Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 All I can focus on in that image is the massive, sprawling arctic high pressure on the north side of a thermal gradient. Beautiful. It's beautiful setup for CAA on the N-NE wind. The GFS resolution at this range, is also likely to underdo the thermal gradient. A stronger thermal gradient, will enhance lifting and snowfall rates to perhaps 1"-2" per hour on Monday, to the north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GEM available as yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 No it wasn't and yet it accumulated fine Todays snow was heavy....what happenswhen rates are 1/4 inch an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The 18z GFS really crapped the bed yesterday, hopefully that was our one blip. seems like with every storm the models do something screwy 3 to 4 days out but since this is not a coastal storm hopefully that won't be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Some individuals tried to use the 'sun-angle argument' during the October 2011 noreaster and we had 1 to 2 ft of snow across much of interior. That was HEAVY rates! I don't care, you can all disagree. The fact of the matter is, without heavy rates a system like this will NOT give you 16-18" of snow. The sun angle on March 4 is similar to the sun angle of late september/early oct. FACT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 May 1977 I believe in New England proves that snow can accumulate despite sun angle. Cold and rates play more of a role obviously than late December, but it's difficult getting much accumulation if temps are borderline and the snow is light during January. Worcester picked up more than a foot in that storm. Boston received 0.5". Higher elevations in NY, CT, and MA did very well with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 But can it overcome the sun angle? april 6 1982 nyc had a snowstorm..the march superstorm 1993 nyc had a snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I started a thread to discuss snow accumulation. ...please keep this thread to model and storm discussion. It is getting unreadable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's a rare occurrence, and as you get closer to April sun angle does begin to play a role. The beginning of April sun angle is equivalent to the end of August. Not saying it can't happen, because it obviously has and will again, if you can get heavy enough rates and a cold enough air mass. agreed. i was in Boston at school for the April Fools Day Storm in 1997 and that 3 feet of snow did not have much trouble accumulating. I think it was close to 70 degrees less than two days before the storm as well. If it snows heavy enough it will stick anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was HEAVY rates! I don't care, you can all disagree. The fact of the matter is, without heavy rates a system like this will NOT give you 16-18" of snow. The sun angle on March 4 is similar to the sun angle of late september/early oct. FACT! 1"/hr is not heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Based off of preliminary free maps the GGEM looks a lot better than 00z, which wasn't hard considering the 00z run was barely anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 1"/hr is not heavy? I'll take this to the other thread, but at no point does the GFS show 1'/hr rates. The best any 3 hr panel has is 0.25" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Canadian is a MONSTER hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If you think light to moderate snow won't stick with temperatures in the lower 20's falling into the teens the only one you're fooling is yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Canadian is a MONSTER hit Details please??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wow, look at that HP, cold air is entrenched with a huge slug of moisture incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Based on where the low goes at 144 you can summize its a giant hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Canadian also looks like a much "easier" 500mb setup, GFS was all over the place with the shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 For some comic relief, the text output for the 12z GFS has constant snow from hours 108-171 with surface temps staying below 30 west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 WOW And this isn't even adding 132-144 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 WOW And this isn't even adding 132-144 yet 132.jpg 12"+ area wide easily extrapolated WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12"+ area wide easily extrapolated WOW! 120 hours already has 5-10mm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not much falls on the 12z GGEM post hour 144. Light over running on Sunday-Monday with breaks possible. Heavy snow Monday night. Gone on Tuesday before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GEFS is similiar to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GEFS is similiar to the op nice agreement. 12z EURO should be forum crashing worthy should it deliver the goods much like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If the 500mb digs even deeper the coastal could enhance snowfall...wild scenarios possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Even if it ends early morning tues it would easily be our longest duration storm this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The Canadian is more like the Euro with a stronger lead low than GFS and less PV digging 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovelyfob Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 april 6 1982 nyc had a snowstorm..the march superstorm 1993 nyc had a snowstorm.. April 7, 2003 March 16-19, 2004 (two seperate storms) March 15-16 2007 There were several storms last March too. http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=menu&+target=wint1213snowtotals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Prob banter, but i have no idea what the state of NJ will do with their rock salt situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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