Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The climo talks makes no sense, you take this exact setup and place it in January and the results will likely be the same. Climo comes in to effect with marginal solutions or light to moderate snow events during the day where the sun angle and daylight play a role in accumulations. The amount of cold air in play is also very akin to January type cold, so that completely throws typically March climatology out the window. You can't apply it when there's a massive, long duration cold air mass with -15 to -30 departures throughout the northern half of the CONUS. I'm not talking about climo anymore but the differences between January and March are pretty big. Look at our history of snowfalls in January and March and you will see the difference. Also a 10-15 degree departure in early March is probably the average high temp for mid to late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A full or even partial phase is not going to do most of us any good. We really need the energy to eject as weaker waves even though this is not an ideal setup for a gradient event. We have plenty of time to hatch things out though. I'm not liking the fact we went from a progged +pna to a -pna now. More later. It was never progged to be a positive PNA for this storm. The PNA was progged and it still is to rise. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 As we saw w/ the Feb 5 event, these tend to have a lot less 'wobble' in terms of potential for a storm. Meaning, it's more likely to do something than nothing considering out to sea is less of, or even a concern at all. I remember tracking Feb 5 and was amazed at how similar the track stayed for the last few days. Long range there was a SE snowstorm and then a cutter here and there, but once it honed in on the final track, it wobbled very little the last 5 days or so. Even though that wasn't a blockbuster storm, it still featured the heaviest snow I think I've ever seen around 4AM complete with lighting and then ice up here. Wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It was never progged to be a positive PNA for this storm. The PNA was progged and it still is to rise. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif those pna charts are derived off the ensembles no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 those pna charts are derived off the ensembles no? I'm not 100 percent sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of 12z. forget about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'm not 100 percent sure about that.there is a different chart floating around based off the ops which shows the pna as negative. Take both with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't currently see much similarities between the two synoptic setups at all. March 2001 00z GFS for 2014 I knew i was going to eat crow over this with you. I meant in the duration and QPF sense. I know the March 01' storm was one tightly wound system that was a slow mover and this being a SWFE/overrunning. C'mon yank where did i mention synoptic setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 there is a different chart floating around based off the ops which shows the pna as negative. Take both with a grain of salt. Agree. Still a way to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of 12z. forget about this one 5 days out Forky? Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 5 days out Forky? Not yet.strongly agree too soon to use definitives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of 12z. forget about this one Have you looked at the individual members? Some mega hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 strongly agree too soon to use definitives There is a still good front end thump on the models before the changeover so we wouldn't lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 They are always very fragile for the coastal plain since we need lows to stay very weak like 2/8-2/11, 1994 when the PNA was negative for the coast to do well. reanal_1994020900.gif reanal_1994021200.gif Exactly right , you want a Pos tilted trough to run under the confluence . Anything amped up will just run N . This should run between the SE ridge and a cold high . Any amped up system with its warm air that floods the mid levels will always win out . So If its Pos tilted .you`re in good shape . Otherwise you can get a Center to run to PITT . A lil early to pin that down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 5 days out Forky? Not yet. it's almost a week out. where was the Euro 3 days ago on saturday's storm. Agreed too soon to speak in certainty. With that being said, I still think if we see a major storm, it will be week of the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 it's almost a week out. where was the Euro 3 days ago on saturday's storm. Agreed too soon to speak in certainty. With that being said, I still think if we see a major storm, it will be week of the 10th. The models are starting to bring in some snow on Sunday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 it's almost a week out. where was the Euro 3 days ago on saturday's storm. Agreed too soon to speak in certainty. With that being said, I still think if we see a major storm, it will be week of the 10th. the week of the 3rd you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the week of the 3rd you mean The Euro had 2 storms for next week. One for Sunday into Monday and then another one in the middle of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the week of the 3rd you mean no, i mean the following week. I know people are going to start crying Climo and I understand why, but I think the pattern will really be conducive to a winter storm around the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Have you looked at the individual members? Some mega hits. I thought you showed a major snow event for like 38 hours on the Ens Mean. Why the disconnect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Another concern is how many of those monsterous HP systems that were forecasted for a certain storm this year have actually verified even remotely close? I share your concern on these SWFE events for the coastal plain as they are a VERY fine line for us unless we can get a strong HP in SE canada to force redevelopment of the 850mb LP to the south to negate mixing for the coastal plain. VERY early to be speculating about this storm and its impact although it almost looks certain to be a big qpf producer however..... If the confluence is stronger, as Weathergun said, there would be a further south low transfer and cold air available for more snow. But a lot of times last-minute with SWFE events we see a north trend and the primary low hanging on longer. So we will have to watch for trends in the days ahead for more confluence and the strength of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 6z Navgem. Good spot for this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 no, i mean the following week. I know people are going to start crying Climo and I understand why, but I think the pattern will really be conducive to a winter storm around the middle of the month. Well I get back from a Miami/Bahamas vacation on 3/9 (leaving late in the evening this Friday, 2/28) so I hope you are correct lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 no, i mean the following week. I know people are going to start crying Climo and I understand why, but I think the pattern will really be conducive to a winter storm around the middle of the month. Nothing is impossible in March. We certainly can see a significant snowfall. I don't think anyone will be screaming or crying climo, but too many people seem to ignore it completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'm not talking about climo anymore but the differences between January and March are pretty big. Look at our history of snowfalls in January and March and you will see the difference. Also a 10-15 degree departure in early March is probably the average high temp for mid to late January Yeah and we're not supposed to have snow in late October or early November according to that logic, but it's happened. Obviously there's a difference in average snowfall between January and March but that's according to average seasonal temperatures, and seeing upcoming March temps similar to average January temps pretty much matches my argument. There's a good chance of a front end thump regardless of what happens because of the widespread cold air in place, but any snowfall at this point is a bonus after what we've seen so far this winter. If things go south and we don't get anything then so be it, I certainly won't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I thought you showed a major snow event for like 38 hours on the Ens Mean. Why the disconnect? I can't post the paid maps here but if you look at the individual hourly maps on SV for the ensemble mean it was a big hit. I just went back and looked at the 12z Euro mean, I have no idea what Forky was looking at. If anything the mean low track looks south of 12z. Maybe he was looking at an old run or got it from a bad source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Have you looked at the individual members? Some mega hits.i'm sure there are. i'm also willing to bet there are fewer hits than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 i'm sure there are. i'm also willing to bet there are fewer hits than the 12z run How is this not a good look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah and we're not supposed to have snow in late October or early November according to that logic, but it's happened. Obviously there's a difference in average snowfall between January and March but that's according to average seasonal temperatures, and seeing upcoming March temps similar to average January temps pretty much matches my argument. Yes but it happens. October snow is rare. And a November snowfall down to the coastal plain isn't a year event either. We have a retreating cold air mass in March if the OPS are corrects. That's not a good sign. The ensembles look beautiful right now and I'd say to ride them in this time frame. I'm still thinking this track ends up somewhere between the OPs and the ensembles. Good overrunning/front end thump at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 How is this not a good look? If your inland NE/NWNJ but its cutting it VERY close for the coast. 5-6 days out but like JM1220 said coastal plain is always the battleground for SWFE. Gotta hope for some great confluence to assure our entire doesnt mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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