March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential

[REDMK6GLI]

It amazes me that people like you are treating this as if it were April already. The antecedent air mass is more typical of January and the sun angle will have little to no effect. Maybe in Manhatten proper which always has sticking issues. UHI factor.

guess as soon as march 1st hits the sun wakes up.....

[Stormlover74]

Exactly! A long duration system with 1-1.25" of qpf equates to low rates. We have seen this story before folks this time of year.

When?

[MJO812]

Exactly!  A long duration system with 1-1.25" of qpf equates to low rates.  We have seen this story before folks this time of year.

No we haven't. When was the last time we had a long duration snow event?

[Superstorm93]

It amazes me that people like you are treating this as if it were April already. The antecedent air mass is more typical of January and the sun angle will have little to no effect. Maybe in Manhatten proper which always has sticking issues. UHI factor.

 

Exactly, It's early March, not April. We won't have impressive ratios to work with, but we can still get a significant snowstorm if the GFS/EURO (850T/precip rates) are somewhat close to verifying. 

 

Things look very decent as of now. 

[Heisy]

I think its possible that if the northern ULL becomes more of a player we will see the overrunning squashed and this ends being a coastal storm that redevelops on a stalled front. 

[earthlight]

anyone looking at these snowfall maps for a system that has (at best) 0.5'-1"/hr rates in early March is fooling themselves.

This is a bad post. Have you looked outside? Or taken the time to look at the modeled low level cold air?

[forkyfork]

the euro shows temps falling into the teens as the storm progresses

[96blizz]

Yesterday, I had to sift through 2 pages of talk about the sun angle.  Look at history and look outside right now (sticking to everything!).  This air mass is remarkably anomolous and cold and it's March 2 --- which is really February if we're splitting hairs. 

[Rjay]

the euro shows temps falling into the teens as the storm progresses

Yea I posted that last night. Starts out at 40 and light rain and drops quickly into and through the 20s and it stops snowing when we are in the teens. The Euro also shuts off the precip a good 24+ hours before the GFS.

[earthlight]

the euro shows temps falling into the teens as the storm progresses

Impossible, it's March!

[nzucker]

Yesterday, I had to sift through 2 pages of talk about the sun angle.  Look at history and look outside right now (sticking to everything!).  This air mass is remarkably anomolous and cold and it's March 2 --- which is really February if we're splitting hairs. 

Talking about the sun angle on March 2nd with an event modeled for 1.5" QPF and -10C 850s is a joke. 

[REDMK6GLI]

This is a bad post. Have you looked outside? Or taken the time to look at the modeled low level cold air?

lol the cold air mass is probably the most impressive compared to average this winter, or in his case now spring

[Stormlover74]

Yesterday, I had to sift through 2 pages of talk about the sun angle. Look at history and look outside right now (sticking to everything!). This air mass is remarkably anomolous and cold and it's March 2 --- which is really February if we're splitting hairs.

The only time Sun angle really comes into play is during the middle of the day if it's snowing lightly and temps are around freezing or above..and that can mean anytime of the year

[bluewave]

I think its possible that if the northern ULL becomes more of a player we will see the overrunning squashed and this ends being a coastal storm that redevelops on a stalled front. 

 

So far the Euro doesn't drop the PV into the Lakes and it's more progressive than GFS . But we'll see if it starts

moving in a more amplified direction.

[Weathergun]

12z GFS has 2m temperatures 18z Monday in teens and 20s. Enough of this sun angle talk:

 

[earthlight]

12z GFS has 2m temperatures 18z Monday in teens and 20s. Enough of this sun angle talk:

All I can focus on in that image is the massive, sprawling arctic high pressure on the north side of a thermal gradient.

Beautiful.

[IsentropicLift]

Not only is it not April but it's the very, very beginning of March. Might as well call it the tail end of February which it would be if February had a least 30 days like every other month. The storm will begin less than two weeks after President's Day, one of our most historically snowiest days, that should tell you something. Early March can deliver and has done so in the past. Another two to three weeks from now it would be a bit of a different story.

[96blizz]

The only time Sun angle really comes into play is during the middle of the day if it's snowing lightly and temps are around freezing or above..and that can mean anytime of the year

Exactly.  It's frustrating!  You get 30 hours of mod snow, it's going to pile up with this airmass and this time of year...  Simple. 

 

Now on to the next models!  So far, the first just knocked it out of the park (of course if you want a snowy event...)

[TheCloser24]

Some individuals tried to use the 'sun-angle argument' during the October 2011 noreaster and we had 1 to 2 ft of snow across much of interior.

[96blizz]

All I can focus on in that image is the massive, sprawling arctic high pressure on the north side of a thermal gradient.

Beautiful.

Ha ha!  That's just an awesome image Lord!

[winterwarlock]

Todays snow was heavy....what happenswhen rates are 1/4 inch an hour

[Stormlover74]

Not only is it not April but it's the very, very beginning of March. Might as well call it the tail end of February which it would be if February had a least 30 days like every other month. The storm will begin less than two weeks after President's Day, one of our most historically snowiest days, that should tell you something. Early March can deliver and has done so in the past. Another two to three weeks from now it would be a bit of a different story.

Actually it wouldn't. In 03 we had snow accumulate mid day in april.

[96blizz]

Some individuals tried to use the 'sun-angle argument' during the October 2011 noreaster and we had 1 to 2 ft across  much of interior.

Oh that one.  Wow.  That would have been a problem but the snow was SOOOO heavy, the sun could do nothing!  Much like April '82. 

 

Bottom line - if it snows hard enough, it will accummulate any time of year.

 

Just like hail in the summer time!  (conceptually different, but you get it....)

[Stormlover74]

Todays snow was heavy....what happenswhen rates are 1/4 inch an hour

If temps are 30-32 snow won't stick regardless of time of year with those rates

[IsentropicLift]

Actually it wouldn't. In 03 we had snow accumulate mid day in april.

That's a rare occurrence, and as you get closer to April sun angle does begin to play a role. The beginning of April sun angle is equivalent to the end of August. Not saying it can't happen, because it obviously has and will again, if you can get heavy enough rates and a cold enough air mass.

[jm1220]

Man, what I would do for this to be 12 hours out and not 120.

[Stormlover74]

Man, what I would do for this to be 12 hours out and not 120.

Yep now we play the waiting game. Which model loses the storm first or shows some screwy panic inducing solution?

[SnoSki14]

That's a rare occurrence, and as you get closer to April sun angle does begin to play a role. The beginning of April sun angle is equivalent to the end of August. Not saying it can't happen, because it obviously has and will again, if you can get heavy enough rates and a cold enough air mass.

May 1977 I believe in New England proves that snow can accumulate despite sun angle. Cold and rates play more of a role obviously than late December, but it's difficult getting much accumulation if temps are borderline and the snow is light during January. 

[lovelyfob]

All I can focus on in that image is the massive, sprawling arctic high pressure on the north side of a thermal gradient.

Beautiful.

 

 

But can it overcome the sun angle? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Yep now we play the waiting game. Which model loses the storm first or shows some screwy panic inducing solution?

The 18z GFS really crapped the bed yesterday, hopefully that was our one blip.