Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I don't have UKMET precip maps, but 500mb looks really favorable for frozen precipthank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Haven't heard anyone mention the ukmet? What's it showing? UKMET doesn't output precip past 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro EPS control run was 8-12" for the area from SW to NE. 15 Ensemble members had 10" or more at KLGA. 23 members had at least 6" or more at KLGA 20 Ensemble members had at least 10" or more at KMMU Interestingly five had less than two inches. The max at both sites look a bit lower than 12z. They look dry for any secondary event at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 These are all nice trends, but there is still a very long way to go. We have to hope that the arctic front can clear the area in time for the storm to develop along it and form heavy overrunning precip. If the storm develops too soon it could be too warm, or it could be weak and we see little precip. I would still look at the outputs last night as a possibility out of many, not any kind of probability. I would say the probability is that there will be some kind of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 These are all nice trends, but there is still a very long way to go. We have to hope that the arctic front can clear the area in time for the storm to develop along it and form heavy overrunning precip. If the storm develops too soon it could be too warm, or it could be weak and we see little precip. I would still look at the outputs last night as a possibility out of many, not any kind of probability. I would say the probability is that there will be some kind of a storm. fair way of putting it but consistency is good thus far. being on the coast though like you is going to make me nervous regardless up until this storm hits. SWFE's are finicky for coastal areas more often than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 fair way of putting it but consistency is good thus far. being on the coast though like you is going to make me nervous regardless up until this storm hits. SWFE's are finicky for coastal areas more often than not It starts out warm for everybody Sunday but the bulk falls Monday with temps in the low to mid 20s..don't think anybody would have ptype issues until maybe south coastal nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This is actually looking like an a system we see during an El Nino year as the SOI recently took a plunge and the low is set to bring Southern California one of its biggest storms in years. From the Los Angeles NWS office: The biggest storm of the year and possibly 2 or 3 years remains on track for Friday and Saturday. It is remarkable how consistently the models have handled this storm and confidence is much higher than normal for a storm this far out. Preliminary rainfall amounts for this storm call for 1 to 2 inches for coastal and valley areas with 2 to 4 inches in the foothills and mountains. ... With even higher (maybe way higher) amounts possible along south facing slopes. Snow levels on Friday will generally be above 7000 feet. ... But will drop down to around 5000 feet by Saturday. This storm will likely produce significant amounts of snow. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 By the time precip starts falling on the 00z ECMWF (~ hour 114) The 850mb freezing line is already south of I-80 and by hour 120 the surface and 850mb freezing lines are both south of I-80. I wouldn't call that a start for rain for everyone. Probably some brief sleet as the column cools further under moderate precipitation. The only places that look to start as plain rain are primarily south and east of NYC. (Not sure why I'm breaking down this run so much since it's already old data). The GFS releases the energy more gradually than the Euro, but if you compare the 06z GFS to the 00z ECMWF they are more similar than the 00z GFS was to the 00z ECMWF. I don't believe that we'll see a continues period of 48-72 hours of precipitation, but I do believe that snow/rain showers will overspread the region by mid-day on Sunday and persist into Monday afternoon before the main slug of snow arrives. Wrapping up early on Tuesday morning. Thinking a 36-48 hour event, with some breaks in activity possible, especially Sunday evening and early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I actually believe that as we get closer the models will back down on the uber long duration event they have now. Pretty rare I don't particularly buy it....Yes it could be a longer event than usual, but 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I actually believe that as we get closer the models will back down on the uber long duration event they have now. Pretty rare I don't particularly buy it....Yes it could be a longer event than usual, but 48 hours? Think of this like you would think of a cut off low off the mid-atlantic coast in the summer or spring months. The precipitation won't be constant, but as different pieces of energy enter the flow they will propagate along the warm front. We have plenty of cold air to the north and warm air to the south creating a good temperature gradient and a recipe for lift. We should then see an enhanced period of heavy snow as the last pieces of energy move offshore. Just how heavy that snow ends up being is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 number 1 analog for this event is 2/8/1994 from CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=1994020806 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 number 1 analog for this event is 2/8/1994 from CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=1994020806 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html None of those analogs show a MECS. A lot of them are ice storms. I believe that this event will be colder both at the surface and a loft than what's being displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 number 1 analog for this event is 2/8/1994 from CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=1994020806 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html That was a 3-5" forecast for most that had a narrow band of 8-12",right over us. But the setup was definitely very similar..waves of low pressure rode along the front on 2/9-2/10 as well before moving back north and blasting us again on 2/11. Ewr had 30" over the 4 day period though of course it didn't snow the whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was a 3-5" forecast for most that had a narrow band of 8-12",right over us. But the setup was definitely very similar..waves of low pressure rode along the front on 2/9-2/10 as well before moving back north and blasting us again on 2/11. Ewr had 30" over the 4 day period though of course it didn't snow the whole time I can see a similar situation evolving here, although I believe 12"+ totals will be more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 FWIW, The 84 HR NAM has much better setup compared to its older runs. Not as much ridging out ahead of the shortwave, a better confluent ULL and a weaker shortwave out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 FWIW, The 84 HR NAM has much better setup compared to its older runs. Not as much ridging out ahead of the shortwave, a better confluent ULL and a weaker shortwave out west... Any further update on the NAM? Know its outside its range but looking for indications &trends at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was a 3-5" forecast for most that had a narrow band of 8-12",right over us. But the setup was definitely very similar..waves of low pressure rode along the front on 2/9-2/10 as well before moving back north and blasting us again on 2/11. Ewr had 30" over the 4 day period though of course it didn't snow the whole time I recall the forecasts were for a change to rain on Feb 8th, but it remained well below freezing...cold high to the north ftw. Insane temp gradient during the morning hours on the 8th.....temp was 67 degrees in Norfolk while it was in the mid to upper teens with snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Any further update on the NAM? Know its outside its range but looking for indications &trends at this point that's the end of the run (what he described). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 that's the end of the run (what he described). Thanks, wasnt aware Nam was THAT short term, not quite sure how I missed in many years of following weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Upton THERE IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH THE THE FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTH...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUES-WED. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A COLDER SOLUTION...WITH TEMPS REMAINING A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...KEEPING PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was a 3-5" forecast for most that had a narrow band of 8-12",right over us. But the setup was definitely very similar..waves of low pressure rode along the front on 2/9-2/10 as well before moving back north and blasting us again on 2/11. Ewr had 30" over the 4 day period though of course it didn't snow the whole time The interesting thing is that this winter was just a more intense version of the Pacific side dominated blocking pattern that we saw in 1994 with more snow to date here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 ULL in Canada much stronger on the GFS, should help reinforce better cold air, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So far through day 4 the 12z GFS looks on target to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So far through day 4 the 12z GFS looks on target to deliver. yup. hr 84 looks just like hr 90 at 6z, even w/ the placement of the 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 WAA snows from the Rocky Mountains to New England on Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was a 3-5" forecast for most that had a narrow band of 8-12",right over us. But the setup was definitely very similar..waves of low pressure rode along the front on 2/9-2/10 as well before moving back north and blasting us again on 2/11. Ewr had 30" over the 4 day period though of course it didn't snow the whole time Sadly, I missed most of the winter of 93-94, as I was in Ireland for work from late December through about mid-February. My wife hated that winter, lol, as she was a few months pregnant with our son. My work at least paid for snow removal while I was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Waa snows like the ggem north of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So far through day 4 the 12z GFS looks on target to deliver. Looks nice at 96 hours. A lot of overrunning about to overspread the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Light snows moving in by the time you wake up on Sunday morning for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Waa snows like the ggem north of the area? NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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