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March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential


NEG NAO

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oh jeez. welcome to the annual cascade of sun angle/wont stick during the day posts.

april 7, 2003 i measured 7 inches of snow in the middle of the road at 2pm.

Yup it will stick anytime of year if it falls hard enough. But when we get into late Feb/early March you expect these type of posts.
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Just noise. All signals are there for a significant storm.

March sun angle will affect totals in the city....

Up in my area, no impact

Nonsense. The air mass is arctic and unprecedented.

Whoever gets the most precip south of the arctic boundary will receive the most snow.

Right now, the gfs/euro have that right near NYC.

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Not sure why people are arguing about sun angles and melting for a storm that's 6 days away, but if you're going to argue, at least get the science right.  Yes, the sun angle is significantly higher in early March than in early January, so yes, significantly greater snow melting rates will occur during the day, especially between about 9 am and 3 pm, for the same surface temperature.  It's a pretty simple equation where accumulation rate = snowfall rate - snow melting rate and the melting rate is unquestionably greater now. 

 

However, at 28F, for example, that melting rate is probably about 1/4" per hour now vs. maybe 1/16" per hour in early January, which means that as long as we get a heavy enough snowfall rate, the snow will still accumulate - but it won't accumulate as well as it would in early January - that's a simple fact.  One point to keep in mind, however: once the snow starts accumulating on paved/dark surfaces, that snow layer will begin reflecting the incoming UV radiation, greatly reducing the snow melting rate from what it was prior to the snow covering up the darker/paved surfaces. 

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I always post this example...This is Albany NY on 4/8/2000 at  5pm, thats a 76 degree temp

 

METAR KALB 081951Z 17022G28KT 10SM CLR 24/08 A2938 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/1930 SLP949 T02440078

 

Here are your observations less than 24 hours later...

 

METAR KALB 091051Z 30009KT 1/4SM R01/2200V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M01/M01 A2948 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP984 SNINCR 2/4 4/004 P0007 T10111011

 

METAR KALB 091151Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/1400V1800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M02 A2946 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP976 SNINCR 2/6 P0005 60030 70034 T10171022 10028 21017 58014

 

METAR KALB 091251Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2943 RMK AO2 SLP967 SNINCR 2/8 P0002 T10221033

 

METAR KALB 091351Z 30020G24KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2940 RMK AO2 SLP959 SNINCR 1/9 P0002 T10221033

 

METAR KALB 091451Z 29017G26KT 1/4SM R01/3000V4000FT -SN BR OVC001 M03/M04 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 31026/1442 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP962 SNINCR 1/10 P0000 60004 T10281044 55014

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I always post this example...This is Albany NY on 4/8/2000 at  5pm, thats a 76 degree temp

 

METAR KALB 081951Z 17022G28KT 10SM CLR 24/08 A2938 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/1930 SLP949 T02440078

 

Here are your observations less than 24 hours later...

 

METAR KALB 091051Z 30009KT 1/4SM R01/2200V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M01/M01 A2948 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP984 SNINCR 2/4 4/004 P0007 T10111011

 

METAR KALB 091151Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/1400V1800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M02 A2946 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP976 SNINCR 2/6 P0005 60030 70034 T10171022 10028 21017 58014

 

METAR KALB 091251Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2943 RMK AO2 SLP967 SNINCR 2/8 P0002 T10221033

 

METAR KALB 091351Z 30020G24KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2940 RMK AO2 SLP959 SNINCR 1/9 P0002 T10221033

 

METAR KALB 091451Z 29017G26KT 1/4SM R01/3000V4000FT -SN BR OVC001 M03/M04 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 31026/1442 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP962 SNINCR 1/10 P0000 60004 T10281044 55014

 

I don't think anyone is saying accumulating snow is an impossibility with the early March sun angle (much less early April).  The point is, if this is generally light to occasionally moderate snow, during the day this won't accumulate much.  I've seen moderate snow not stick at ALL in Philly back in 2010 in late Feb/early March, due to the lack of intensity and the sun angle.

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I don't think anyone is saying accumulating snow is an impossibility with the early March sun angle (much less early April). The point is, if this is generally light to occasionally moderate snow, during the day this won't accumulate much. I've seen moderate snow not stick at ALL in Philly back in 2010 in late Feb/early March, due to the lack of intensity and the sun angle.

Please, do you really believe the GFS.. YOU really believe this will be a 72 hr event.

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Who cares if that's how long it lasts. The point was will light to moderate snow stick during the the day in march.

I really don't think light snow will but mod snow should with temps in the 20s and a cold ground. But I think we should hold this discussion 24 hrs out from an event because this is far from a lock as you def know.
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Please, do you really believe the GFS.. YOU really believe this will be a 72 hr event.

 

1if

 conjunction \ˈif, əf\

 

a :  in the event that

 

b :  allowing that

 

c :  on the assumption that

 

d :  on condition that

 

 

Origin of IF
Middle English, from Old English gif; akin to Old High German ibu if
First Known Use: before 12th century
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I really don't think light snow will but mod snow should with temps in the 20s and a cold ground. But I think we should hold this discussion 24 hrs out from an event because this is far from a lock as you def know.

Of course. Its all kinda pointless now but since it is March its always a discussion that comes up.

Anyway onto the euro

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Hr 114 light rain moves in

Hr 120 light to mod precip. 850mb 0 line is running through nyc and LI with temps in the low 30s ..upper 20s in NWNJ

hr 126. Light snow..Surface below freezing for all and 850mb temps below freezing for anyone north of TTN

Hr 132 light snow with temps in the mid 20s except the NJ shore is 30-31

hr 138 heavy snow nw of i95 mod snow nyc..Light snow s and e of there..NJ shore is sleet probably

hr 144 heavy snow for all. 1002 mb low 100+ miles east of Delaware

hr 150 light snow for all. Temps in the teens

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