IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 What are you even seeing dude, I am looking at the same GFS run, its not better. Its rain bro. No need to sugar coat it.Not better than 12z. Read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 There MIGHT be some very light snow at 150, but this run looks nothing like 12z and was warmer the whole way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 NW areas change over hour 150 but the whole evolution is crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No big storm, toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gotta love the GFS, different solution just 6 hours later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Why is it dismissed now because it shows rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's still the GFS (good for sh t model). The Euro is the only way to go for consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Why is it dismissed now because it shows rain True, we'd all be buying it if it showed a HECS. However, it's an 18z run of a bad model....I'd worry if 0z continued the trend or if the Euro and Canadian bailed at 0z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We toss because it looks lost a loft. I'm not worried about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I know this belongs in the banter thread, but these models are driving me nuts this winter. Absolutely no consistency at all. Oh well, onto the 00z- another run another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 18z GFS is rain for the WAA. Just noise. It's all noise this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No big storm, toss ha, ha, ha "just noise", "no big storm toss". you guys are laughable as far as the "gotta love GFS competely different run 6 hrs later".....not true in the slightest. slightly further north with the waa does not equate to a completely different run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't think you can just 'dismiss' the GFS because the Euro shows this --- or because it's an 18z run, etc. This is a lot like the Feb 5 event and the GFS did quite well with that event versus our Miller A on Feb 13/14 that the Euro just dominated (as it tends to do w/ Southern Stream events). Lots of time to go and lots of good on our side. BUT, that GFS NEVER looked good from the very onset of precip forward. Onto the Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not better than 12z. Read. You said it was better. Read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not to sound cliche but the GFS is all over the place at 500mb, just ignore for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No big storm, toss Lol I know you're kidding. Just another solution on the table. The Euro looked awesome. Good blocking, the PV creating confluence so the storm cant cut and it tracks underneath us , high pressure keeping cold air in place and lots of moisture being thrown up over the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I know this belongs in the banter thread, but these models are driving me nuts this winter. Absolutely no consistency at all. Oh well, onto the 00z- another run another solution. You're never going to get consistency 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's all noise this far out. agreed. This is a very viable solution. Yes, a different one, but viable. The key thing to watch is the timing and orientation of the PV in SE canada. 18z gfs leaving the front stalled along the coast... might try and produce something along it. maybe , maybe not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Why is it dismissed now because it shows rain You locking this in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Mount holly SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING ON THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WARM FRONT, NOW ARRIVING IN OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, OR ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY WERE SHOWING. WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO WARRANT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT STALLS, AND POSSIBLY RETREATS BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR SPRING WEATHER WATCHERS IS THAT THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND E CENTRAL PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, PULLING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS SOLUTION, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN THE TRANSITION SEASON, EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES, AND THAT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THE 12Z RUNS. THERE IS ESPECIALLY LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 You said it was better. Read.Better for the second part of the storm, which never came. Temps cool as the run goes on. Pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Better for the second part of the storm, which never came. Temps cool as the run goes on. Pay attention. Cooler temps mean zilch with no moisture. You could see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Cooler temps mean zilch with no moisture. You could see that coming.I was on mobile. Cut me a freakin break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Like I said, toss this run. It's a big outlier even to itself and looks confused, the best way I can put it. It doesn't have the coastal at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I was on mobile. Cut me a freakin break. It's cool man. Not trying to argue. i want a good snowfall just like everyone else and appreciate what you do for us with PBP, especially the Euro w/ your pay access. I was trying to put in my $.02 as the model came out, which folks didn't like because it was warm/rain, and we hear "Let Yanks do it". If being on mobile hurts ya, others can help out. Onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's cool man. Not trying to argue. i want a good snowfall just like everyone else and appreciate what you do for us with PBP, especially the Euro w/ your pay access. I was trying to put in my $.02 as the model came out, which folks didn't like because it was warm/rain, and we hear "Let Yanks do it". If being on mobile hurts ya, others can help out. Onward. No Problem. 18z GFS is bad for me since I leave work 5-5:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No Problem. 18z GFS is bad for me since I leave work 5-5:30. yank you do a fine job doing PbP regardless. we ALL miss some things no matter how good we are ( including LORD earthlight ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Cooler temps mean zilch with no moisture. You could see that coming. Agree. It was a pretty bad pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ensembles any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ensembles any better? The same. Warm...with some light snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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