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February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Meh, too early for p-type concerns. If I'm going to worry about anything at this point, it's getting decent QPF in here...especially with the main wave.

Yeah... at this point I'd rather have a ton of qpf. I almost want something non-snow... all snow is getting a bit boring :P

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Izzi says meh

 

 

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFFECTING REGIONS CLOSER TO THE
OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAKER WAVE FARTHER NORTH COULD PROVIDE FOR A
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW CLOSER TO OUR REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO A STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS ONLY LOOK TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF A COUPLE/FEW
INCHES OF SNOW AND MAINLY FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN CWA.

SATURDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS WEST COAST UPPER LOW OPENS
UP AND PLOWS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE OUR CWA...IT IS
STILL 5 DAYS OUT AND A LOT CAN CHANGE. NOT UNCOMMON FOR MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS TOO QUICKLY AND A
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY POST A GREAT SNOW THREAT FARTHER
NORTH. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA...THOUGH IF CURRENT RUNS HOLD COURSE AND THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS
PANS OUT WE COULD POTENTIALLY BEGIN CHIPPING AWAY AT THIS POPS IN
LATER FORECAST.

 

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TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION...THE FIRST BEING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT GENERALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ALOFT FOR EITHER EVENT...THUS BOTH ARE PRIM ARLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MODEST WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS INDICATES MAINLY A LIGHT SNOW
INTENSITY FOR BOTH EVENTS. THE INITIAL EVENT FRIDAY PM SHOULD
BEGIN IN THE WEST AFTER NOON...AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST OF THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD LAST AROUND 8 HOURS OR SO IN ANY
ONE LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT INTENSITY. THIS SUPPORTS AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IN GENERAL FROM THE INITIAL EVENT. THE GFS IS THE ODD
MODEL OUT OF THIS PROCESS WITH RESPECT TO QPF. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO THAT MODEL SHOWING MORE NOTABLE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY...WHICH
PREVENTS MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE NORTHERN WAVES FORCING OVER
IOWA. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT GIVEN OUR SUPPORT...HOWEVER A NOD
TO THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER END OF LIKELY FOR THE 1ST
EVENT.

QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER PRIMARILY MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVENT FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW
A ZONE OF LIGHT SNOW FORMING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...WORKING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE SATURDAY PM TO
SUNDAY PERIOD...WITH LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE INTENSITY EXPECTED.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW LONG THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS
OVER HEAD. THE GFS IS SLOWEST...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST ON SNOW
TOTALS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF REMAIN QUICKER AND LIGHTER.
AS WE RESOLVE TIMING...WE CAN DETERMINE THE SCALE OF THIS SNOW
EVENT/AMOUNTS.

Eh...

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ILN going snow for all but the s/se 1/3 of cwa

 

 

 





.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IN THE MORNING AND WEAKENING/STRETCHING SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE
LATER PART OF THE DAY. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE MORNING
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND LIKELY EXHIBIT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF
THEY ARE STILL PRESENT BY NOON.

THIS WEAK FRONT BRINGS THE REGION TO THE NEXT THREAT OF WINTERY
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISM IN PLACE ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THE SURFACE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THERMAL PROFILES OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET CREATE A GOOD BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PTYPE EXPECTED. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE AS
TIME PROGRESSES...THE GFS IS COOLER WITH ITS LATEST RUN AND I USED
THIS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE
SAME MODELS HAVE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLEET
AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN FOR APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
1/3 OF THE CWA.

BY THE TIME DAYBREAK MONDAY ROLLS AROUND...ANY LINGERING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BACK INTO THE WINTER
REGIME THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER AND LAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
 

 

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I'm up for one last hooray. 

That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt.

 

yup, just another pos flat wave that doesn't do us much good.  dream winter for those in the tropics of Illinois through se mi that feast on these yawner waves that don't explode until well east.

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