BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Anyways, Alek will chime in, in the AM as usual. Looking at GFS soundings, there is an inversion just below 850 mb, so not sure if lake enhancement will really be a factor. Maybe at the very end of the system. Do you have the snowfall total map from the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Do you have the snowfall total map from the GEM? Not done running yet. --- 0.1-0.30" stripe through WI on Friday night for those interested. Through 126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 2/8/94 is the #1 CIPS Analog, where MKE picked up +10" and highest totals confined to WI/IL shoreline....overall setup looks similar with zonal flow, PV over SE Canada and NE/E winds with 850mb temps between -14-18C. Makes me think the lake will be a decent contributor despite the cold/icy lake temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 2/8/94 is the #1 CIPS Analog, where MKE picked up +10" and highest totals confined to WI/IL shoreline....overall setup looks similar with zonal flow, PV over SE Canada and NE/E winds with 850mb temps between -14-18C. Makes me think the lake will be a decent contributor despite the cold/icy lake temps. Lock it in boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Definitely hoping I have to make a username change, but too early to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro much weaker with the Fri night wave for northern IL. Instead of 2-4" it's 1-2" at best. Sun wave is still coming in, but looks pretty meager at 102hrs. EDIT: Looking like a 1-2" event Fri night followed by another 1-2" event Sat night if Euro works out for this area. Nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah, the 00z Euro is pretty weak sauce for Iowa. For Cedar Rapids it has a dusting Friday, a couple inches Saturday, then nothing after that. It's a real far cry from the better GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Long duration 3-6 inches with miserable cold. Getting tiresome on my end too. Ready for spring and thunderstorms somewhat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LAF had temps in the low 20s for GHD. That's about the coldest temp I've seen with sleet, at least anything remotely significant, but I imagine it could be a lot colder given the right setup. All about what's going on aloft. I think it was '94 or '95 (widespread icestorm in early Feb or early Jan....I know I suck at dates), anyways biggest sleet storm I've ever experienced. It was 16 degrees and sleet most of the day. When it finally 'warmed up' in the evening it went over to thunderstorms and freezing rain. Surface temps mean nothing when it comes to sleet....other than getting too warm of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The ECMWF and GGEM disagree. not anymore ECMWF is a total snoozer for Friday (weekend looking bad as well), GFS down to 4 flakes for Friday, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was my train of thought on what he said... For him probably anything under 4" or so as a non-event. I don't think he's a fan of these long duration events, but he can correct me if I'm wrong. It was pretty clear I was talking strictly about Friday in that post. 3 day event totals may end up in the 6-8" range if everything works out (we're trending away from that direction) but Friday is going to be just another forgettable 1-3" hit (being generous). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 not anymore ECMWF is a total snoozer for Friday (weekend looking bad as well), GFS down to 4 flakes for Friday, etc LOT 's uninspired AFD this AM seems to support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LOT doesn't seem overly excited about this weekend in the morning disco. I'm hoping the weekend trends reverse course and we get a decent hit. With the big high moving in next week it's gonna get frigid again. Let's make this the last big cold/snow event and start spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LOT 's uninspired AFD this AM seems to support this. there isn't much support for anything interesting on the table right now and the GFS certainly hasn't been consistent...hard to get too bullish at this point. 2-5" for a 3 day total sounds fair at this point. It is nice to see LOT agreeing with my thoughts on Friday. Shame my usual stalkers had to get so bent out of shape. UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THEWEEKEND WITH BROAD FLAT TROUGHING IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND HALF AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DOESNT LOOK LIKE SNOW WILL GET OUT OF HAND...BUT IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was a snooze fest AFD. Hardly even mentioned the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 2/8/94 is the #1 CIPS Analog, where MKE picked up +10" and highest totals confined to WI/IL shoreline....overall setup looks similar with zonal flow, PV over SE Canada and NE/E winds with 850mb temps between -14-18C. Makes me think the lake will be a decent contributor despite the cold/icy lake temps. On the lake contribution factor. The soundings don't look that great with an inversion below 850 mb. Would need that to raise up to make use of those delta Ts. --- Yeah GFS is weak sauce with the first wave, which actually bypasses the immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 not anymore ECMWF is a total snoozer for Friday (weekend looking bad as well), GFS down to 4 flakes for Friday, etc The GFS was never onboard for Friday's event.Need just a few more tenths to make it a top 10 snowiest February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 It is nice to see LOT agreeing with my thoughts on Friday. Shame my usual stalkers had to get so bent out of shape.Well naturally they're going to agree when the majority now flips to a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 there isn't much support for anything interesting on the table right now and the GFS certainly hasn't been consistent...hard to get too bullish at this point. 2-5" for a 3 day total sounds fair at this point. It is nice to see LOT agreeing with my thoughts on Friday. Shame my usual stalkers had to get so bent out of shape. When you posted it, the EURO/GGEM all had 4+ for that first wave. Stop trying to troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I noticed locally that the 6z GFS was worse than tha 0z GFS, but there were a few nicer ensembles at 6z than 0z. Still tons of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I noticed locally that the 6z GFS was worse than tha 0z GFS, but there were a few nicer ensembles at 6z than 0z. Still tons of uncertainty. 6z GFS is awful for Toronto. Every single one of the waves manages to miss this city in some way. Places that can't handle the snow (I.. Mid Atlantic states) get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 When you posted it, the EURO/GGEM all had 4+ for that first wave. Stop trying to troll. awfully weird way of saying my call about a trend towards non-event (friday) was spot-on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 6z GFS is awful for Toronto. Every single one of the waves manages to miss this city in some way. Places that can't handle the snow (I.. Mid Atlantic states) get it. Its just a graze job here...but as said, several ensembles look very nice for your area as well as mine. All over the place, at this stage I wouldnt expect anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hello boys and girls (if there are any), the Macomb boy is back, and holy crap. http://forecast.io/#/f/40.4599,-90.6695 I'm not putting too much stock into this but it had my roommate and I laughing pretty hard. But here's the synopsis of the DVN (I'm in the extreme southern part): REGARDLESS...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SATURDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POSSIBLY EXISTS THAT THIS STORM MAY BEIN TWO SECTIONS...A LEAD WEAK SECTION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THESTRONGER SECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HASCHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. IFTHE SLOWING TREND CONTINUES THEN THESE POPS WILL INCREASE OVER TIMETHE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.SNOW AMOUNTS ARE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE AREDIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF SYSTEM AMONG THE MODELS. ALL OFTHIS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...WHICH DIFFER BETWEEN THEMODELS...PLAY INTO OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THATACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND IS A GIVEN AND THIS STORM WILL NEEDTO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. So guys, I'm totally feeling 4-8 inches for Macomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So guys, I'm totally feeling 4-8 inches for Macomb. decent call for a 3 day event total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 When you posted it, the EURO/GGEM all had 4+ for that first wave. Stop trying to troll. Not necessarily for Chicago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Last night, Jerry Taft had .5" to 1" for Friday. 3" for Saturday, and 5" for Sunday, and his snow maps were showing around 9" or so for parts of the Chicago area, but overall, it looked like a 5"-9" for the three days. Still got folks out there talking about 12" - 14". Don't think we'll get that, unless things change. I'll bet we top out at 7" by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Last night, Jerry Taft had .5" to 1" for Friday. 3" for Saturday, and 5" for Sunday, and his snow maps were showing around 9" or so for parts of the Chicago area, but overall, it looked like a 5"-9" for the three days. Still got folks out there talking about 12" - 14". Don't think we'll get that, unless things change. I'll bet we top out at 7" by Monday morning. You jinxed it by incorrectly posting the GFS had the snowfall south of LOT when it actually showed 12-14 for Chicago. Now it is south. Second time this winter you've down that to a storm. A lot of unhappy folks, save ALE. NAM must have been smokin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Side note, should I be using DVN or ILX? Because I'm kinda right in the middle of like 3 of them, but the LSX doesn't quite do it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 TimChgo is clearly a loyal Channel 7 news guy. Classic Alek, spiking the football before the event even starts. Still have no idea what to expect here. Euro continues the theme of a graze job for LAF with the main/last piece...while the GFS is the most bullish with overall multi-day precip. At least my p&c doesn't have sleet likely right now. On a historical note, Indianapolis needs 6.0" to break their season snowfall record (52.3º now, record is 58.2º). Thus my rooting interests lies with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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