Gilbertfly Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 new years event part 2....nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So help me God, if MKE is missed south I will do absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I had to pull out the old avatar after seeing LAF's forecast and reading IND's disco. Will have to get much closer to the event before I start worrying. But just in case.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF mean already over 3" by 84 hours at YYZ with round 1. Overall, they've done a good job this winter although they hit a snag with the Feb 17 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF mean already over 3" by 84 hours at YYZ with round 1. Overall, they've done a good job this winter although they hit a snag with the Feb 17 event. They were definitely a bit overdone, but they didn't do terrible with that event. If I remember correctly the mean had a touch over 5" before the event when we actually got ~3-4" . Looks like this is going to be a multi wave event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 They were definitely a bit overdone, but they didn't do terrible with that event. If I remember correctly the mean had a touch over 5" before the event when we actually got ~3-4" . Looks like this is going to be a multi wave event. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So help me God, if MKE is missed south I will do absolutely nothing. count on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 so, help me on GHD....did we have those cold of temps and sleet? Meaning, they are saying a low of 12 and sleet...not disagreeing just trying to understand. LAF had temps in the low 20s for GHD. That's about the coldest temp I've seen with sleet, at least anything remotely significant, but I imagine it could be a lot colder given the right setup. All about what's going on aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM must have been uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM must have been uninspiring. For ORD yeah. 6+ for IA and parts of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM will trend to a non-event friday like the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM will trend to a non-event friday like the others The ECMWF and GGEM disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM must have been uninspiring. 1-3" for NE IL. ~4" along and south of I-80. DLL gets about 8" on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hows Madison looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hows Madison looking 3-4" http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM will trend to a non-event friday like the others what? every model has a band of 4+ with this wave. GFS is 4-6+ ECMWF is about .3-.4 qpf same as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The ECMWF and GGEM disagree. And I thought I read he wouldn't crap on this thread. I don't see any others showing a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 And I thought I read he wouldn't crap on this thread. I don't see any others showing a non event Yep, couldn't even make it a day either We've done excellent with these hyper long duration events this winter but a good portion of the 1'+ totals IMBY was the lake which isn't likely to be a large player this time around. Either way, it's hard to discount decent totals (4-8 region wide) if the duration, deep dgz, and high ratios pan out. Still hoping for something a little more dynamic/intense but i'll try not to crap on this thread too much for people eagerly chasing records. I guess old habits die hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Let's track Taft's model hugging between now and the weekend His first call is 4-8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 0z GFS has that north band like the NAM, but only 3" if that for LSE. Only 0.5" for NE IL at 81 hours. 3-4" band along i-70 in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Alek is such a joke of a poster. 00z GFS a smidge south on snowmaps, but good dump for ORD so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Alek said, "non event for Friday". That looks to be the case now. -at least 2 models agree. 2nd wave does look promising for a lot of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Alek said, "non event for Friday". That looks to be the case now. -at least 2 models agree. 2nd wave does look promising for a lot of us though. He said he wasn't going to crap on the thread and he couldn't even make it 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 He said he wasn't going to crap on the thread and he couldn't even make it 24 hours. Haha, true. Well he tried, but only since 5am this morning. I figure he'll be optimistic come Thursday afternoon if the models still show the same outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Alek said, "non event for Friday". That looks to be the case now. -at least 2 models agree. 2nd wave does look promising for a lot of us though. Probably should wait to see what the foreign runs have to say regarding Friday. Also what is the definition of "non-event?" Seems subjective but arguably the threshold would be higher in this winter since it's been so snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12-14" from southeast IA to chi metro this run when all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 A GFS scenario would be awesome. Sure hope that type of solution wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Probably should wait to see what the foreign runs have to say regarding Friday. Also what is the definition of "non-event?" Seems subjective but arguably the threshold would be higher in this winter since it's been so snowy. That was my train of thought on what he said... For him probably anything under 4" or so as a non-event. I don't think he's a fan of these long duration events, but he can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That was my train of thought on what he said... For him probably anything under 4" or so as a non-event. I don't think he's a fan of these long duration events, but he can correct me if I'm wrong. He's a fan if they produce big dog amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Anyways, Alek will chime in, in the AM as usual. Looking at GFS soundings, there is an inversion just below 850 mb, so not sure if lake enhancement will really be a factor. Maybe at the very end of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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