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February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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IND has issued advisories/warnings. 

 

 

Warning text:

 

* ACCUMULATION...SNOWFALL AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 70 BY
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR LINE. 

 

WWA text:

 

* ACCUMULATION...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1101 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-020115-
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0023.140301T2100Z-140302T1500Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET
1101 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATION...SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO AN INCH
PER HOUR FOR A TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS...
MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION.

* OTHER IMPACTS...FRESH SNOWFALL...DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS MAY BRING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FOR
MONDAY MORNING.

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You have a shot that I could use to pick that up? :lol:

 

Hopefully Hoosier doesn't get too upset with me, but I'm gonna go with 3-5" for LAF. Riding a 12z GFS and NAM compromise with that call...because the others (RGEM, UK) so far, are pretty ugly for here.

 

 

This might be the most irritating storm for me this winter.  Certainly up there.  I'm thinking about lowering my call but not sure to what range.  System was still offshore at 12z so the 18z and especially 00z runs should tell the tale.  :weenie:

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This might be the most irritating storm for me this winter.  Certainly up there.  I'm thinking about lowering my call but not sure to what range.  System was still offshore at 12z so the 18z and especially 00z runs should tell the tale.  :weenie:

 

By far the most irritating storm for me. The run-to-run, day-to-day changes for here have been stupid. 

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LOT

 

1158 AM CST

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE UP THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SPREADING GRADUALLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. WILL LIKELY BE NUDGING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DOWNWARD SOME...PROBABLY MORE INTO THE 3-5" RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH MANY AREAS POSSIBLY WINDING UP ON THE LOWER END OF THAT
RANGE. EVEN SO...A COUPLE/FEW HOURS OF STRONG ASCENT COUPLED WITH
WEAKER STABILITY ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEFLY IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES. ALSO APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOWFALL WILL BE WRAPPING UP
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY DONE NORTH OF
I-80 BY MIDNIGHT.

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We seem to be grasping at straws here locally. I am taking note of PAH's ice storm warning with thunder for Sunday for Western KY.  And the possibility of svr wx for NOLA for Sunday festivities two days before Mardi Gras.  Gotta find something of interest.

 

Check the 120hr ECMWF, been showing Gulf of Mex deep Low pressure for a few days now, this run has it closer to NOLA, that would be Wed-Thu time-frame.  Buoys show water heat 70-75F central Gulf.

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