Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To A-L-E-K .... saying this in fun, if you are depending on psychic powers to be right, chose something other than weather! Coin toss would be the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here's the latest on JBs call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks to far north? nah, just janky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 of U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To A-L-E-K .... saying this in fun, if you are depending on psychic powers to be right, chose something other than weather! Coin toss would be the way to go I won't speak for Alek's credentials, but I will say from being on weather bulletin boards with him for many years that he has a very good understanding of meteorology and sometimes weenies here disagree with his conservatism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I won't speak for Alek's credentials, but I will say from being on weather bulletin boards with him for many years that he has a very good understanding of meteorology and sometimes weenies here disagree with his conservatism. Yeah i always appreciate his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To determine a particular models performance, compare the new update cycle 00 hour image with the previous cycles 6hr forecast if it is a 6 hr cycle, or compare the new cycle 00 hr image with the previous cycle 12hr image if it updates on a 12 hr cycle. Also with forecasting, trend is rarely wrong. It is getting location and timing right - that is where people can make money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage19 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To A-L-E-K .... saying this in fun, if you are depending on psychic powers to be right, chose something other than weather! Coin toss would be the way to go He's got model support from that from nam/gfs/rap he's just not making up stuff, sure the data COULD be wrong but its hard to ignore it and you can be a snow lover as you want but you have to be real and fair with your accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mr Dee, this is a weather forum primarily made up of enthusiasts. We're all pretty knowledgable people with respect to meteorology, but this is a hobby for most...not a living. Relax, and enjoy the conversation/debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The local meteorologist are having a nightmare with this one. Between the NAM and GFS and the ridiculous baroclinic zone setup it's a mess. Hoping for a snowstorm rather than a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The late Friday system was a bust here with little more than a trace of snow. The good band parked all afternoon and evening from Ames to Waterloo and dropped 3-4 inches there. I don't know what the heck to expect today. There have been plenty of model runs that dropped real nice snow, but the Euro has become very dry and the other models have slowly backed off as well. It may be just another 1-2 inch event, which would be an incredible disappointment given what the models have shown for the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanx to all for comments. Appreciate the enthusiasm and input from all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To Winterfreak -- the atmospheric sounding forecast above you, this is for KC metro area, shows the inversion is up at about 7,000 ft.Thus, you will get either ice pellets (raindrops will already freeze) or snow, but don't see freezing rain or icing. By 50 miles south of KC metro area, appears freezing rain icing more likely. You can use the RAP forecast products here at AmWx. Be safe ~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 HI all, if people are here to guess on the weather, that is good. If people are here to learn about weather, do more with their lives as a result, that is good, too. Just figuring out the two camps. Just difficult to see people prognosticate from erroneously trending data and possibly lead others into thinking its accurate. That is actually dangerous! Beyond 12-24 hrs the NAM, SREF, WRF and often the GFS are completely in error on warm air advection winter patterns like we have seen now. The ECMWF and then the RAP are always best. Thank you. Dude most of us are here to just has some fun. Most here are we weather geeks & hobbyists. We love to look at dream model runs and for the most part know it is just model porn!!! Several people on here have been posting together on various forums for over 10+ years ... we harass, tease and joke A LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 1.3" down this morning. Pretty dry snow at that. 68.9" for the season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 1.3" down this morning. Pretty dry snow at that. Yeah I used my leaf blower today to get rid of it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gee, Alek may bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tried to add RAP sounding image for KC area for this afternoon. The above freezing area is way up at about 8,000 ft. This favors ice pellets and snow mix, not freezing rain and icing. Trend is then to all below freezing at all altitudes favoring snow. Data from AmWx RAP sounding. Be safe ~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gee, Alek may bust high. Like most of his calls this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS gets IND 6.0" or so...which would set the season snowfall record. Don't really care about MBY at this point, but really rooting for Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tonight we should see a fairly quick 3 inches of powder. Its interesting how many times and ways the evolution of these waves have changed. Oh well, should beautify the ancient snowpack. Wish it would hold off til after midnight, but it wont, so cant be choosy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tried to add RAP sounding image for KC area for this afternoon. The above freezing area is way up at about 8,000 ft. This favors ice pellets and snow mix, not freezing rain and icing. Trend is then to all below freezing at all altitudes favoring snow. KC wx.png Data from AmWx RAP sounding. Be safe ~ Was just going to check this out. Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Damn Canadians. Nice LAF screwhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gee, Alek may bust high. savor it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A bowler's worst nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Haha^ Wasn't expecting the sun to come out today! Band in Iowa looks too scattered right now to do much over 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A bowler's worst nightmare. You have a shot that I could use to pick that up? Hopefully Hoosier doesn't get too upset with me, but I'm gonna go with 3-5" for LAF. Riding a 12z GFS and NAM compromise with that call...because the others (RGEM, UK) so far, are pretty ugly for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LOT bumped up my P and C again; now at a total of 5-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Was just going to check this out. Thank you very much. Yes, all the RAP and HRRR data show about 6-8 inches of snow for KC from this event onset approx 6 pm. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tonight we should see a fairly quick 3 inches of powder. Its interesting how many times and ways the evolution of these waves have changed. Oh well, should beautify the ancient snowpack. Wish it would hold off til after midnight, but it wont, so cant be choosy lol. If my flakes (very powdery) are like they were this morning I think 3" is definitely achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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