A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RUC showing 2-3 across most of LOT with a little weenie band near MBY of 3-4 4" call looking money. 2-5" area wide call made days ago also looking money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RUC showing 2-3 across most of LOT with a little weenie band near MBY of 3-4 4" call looking money. 2-5" area wide call made days ago also looking money. 5.1 for LOT. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 5.1 for LOT. Lock it in. you've already locked in a much higher weenie call at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Bottom row of counties of IWX's area is in the WSW. I'm on the northern edge. MBY final call 6.4" FWA 5.2" (Saturday morning-Monday morning). Regardless of the March Model Mayhem, I'm still liking my call for here and FWA. Difference due to slant sticking lol. Actually, I'm just farther south, near what I believe will be the gradient cutoff of the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 you've already locked in a much higher weenie call at ORD. you've already locked in a much higher weenie call at ORD. Busted. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Met from IND says they are waiting on the 12z runs before making headline adjustments. He says, "Model agreement is a bit lower than I'd care to see at this point." I'd say that's an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-5" total in my p&c. Sounds about right, though I'd be surprised if we hit the higher end of that range (4-5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-5" total in my p&c. Sounds about right, though I'd be surprised if we hit the higher end of that range (4-5"). I'd at LEAST wait for the 12Z runs. The 6Z runs definitely took a step back towards some of the earlier, bigger, solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-5" total in my p&c. Sounds about right, though I'd be surprised if we hit the higher end of that range (4-5"). Eh, you'll do okay. I'm thinking you'll be at the top end of that range when all is said and done. My p&c calls for 3-6, but I still like 6, maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm going bullish on this one and calling for ten metric units of accumulation or 3.93701" .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-5" total in my p&c. Sounds about right, though I'd be surprised if we hit the higher end of that range (4-5"). This storm has trended in a poor way for our locations. I really was hoping it would come together and not be a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd at LEAST wait for the 12Z runs. The 6Z runs definitely took a step back towards some of the earlier, bigger, solutions. While I'd like to see the 6z runs become a "trend"...they kinda did the same thing yesterday. But, we'll hope for the best. Hope you guys do well with this one. Eh, you'll do okay. I'm thinking you'll be at the top end of that range when all is said and done. My p&c calls for 3-6, but I still like 6, maybe a little more. I think IND has a very good handle on things...with respect to the northern CWA being 7/10'ed. Seems most guidance is indicating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 24 hr WV loop is cool, swirl just about to push onto the CA shore. You can see the PV push south, get push back north, and then creep back south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well at least it is snowing this morning. As for this storm => Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice moderate snow this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 While I'd like to see the 6z runs become a "trend"...they kinda did the same thing yesterday. But, we'll hope for the best. Hope you guys do well with this one. I think IND has a very good handle on things...with respect to the northern CWA being 7/10'ed. Seems most guidance is indicating that. If that happens, you can blame Hoosier for jinxing us! I've been seeing signs of it, but I'm in denial. It's actually been awhile since I've been screwholed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice moderate snow this AM The SREF mean is pretty hell bent on a ~5" total our area. While yesterday's models gave me hope I still have strong doubts about tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If that happens, you can blame Hoosier for jinxing us! I've been seeing signs of it, but I'm in denial. It's actually been awhile since I've been screwholed. Trust me, I'm not going to forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seems like it's a different look with every run...but the 12z NAM has a nice 6-8" band from northern MO through the northern ILX CWA and then northern IN. Also a pretty drastic change at 39 hours...when looking back in OK. We'll see how that translates downstream, but may be very good for the Ohio River area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 radar has the look of a 1-2" event for LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So it looks like the NAM finally caved (no surprises there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And the NAM goes back to squashing the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi A-L-E-K, what are your professional credentials? Am curious, thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi A-L-E-K, what are your professional credentials? Am curious, thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi A-L-E-K, what are your professional credentials? Am curious, thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For the snow event Chicago to Indy area, the NAM, SREF and GFS have been overdone in northward push of moisture.Because the cA airmass reached the area prior to the mP airmass from CA the result is a more southward push with each model run update. The RAP 1-18hr forecasts will be most accurate. Appears to be a 4" snowfall event, with lake enhancement for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seems like it's a different look with every run...but the 12z NAM has a nice 6-8" band from northern MO through the northern ILX CWA and then northern IN. Also a pretty drastic change at 39 hours...when looking back in OK. We'll see how that translates downstream, but may be very good for the Ohio River area. so jb cuts a vid this morning about how the 6znam is finally showing what he thinks will happen, with the last piece being stronger and further north.... ....then out rolls the 12znam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi A-L-E-K, what are your professional credentials? Am curious, thanx. His credentials? :weenie: By the way, welcome to the site. Look forward to your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 HI all, if people are here to guess on the weather, that is good. If people are here to learn about weather, do more with their lives as a result, that is good, too. Just figuring out the two camps. Just difficult to see people prognosticate from erroneously trending data and possibly lead others into thinking its accurate. That is actually dangerous! Beyond 12-24 hrs the NAM, SREF, WRF and often the GFS are completely in error on warm air advection winter patterns like we have seen now. The ECMWF and then the RAP are always best. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 radar has the look of a 1-2" event for LOT Looks to far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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