Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 usually when I read this from a poster inside 72 hours of an event I'm thinking . But I have to admit there is virtually no consensus right now and models are still flip flopping amongst themselves. I mentioned in the Ohio thread that the 12z runs were comical for Ohio. The ggem shows ZERO accumulations south of i70, while the euro has the axis of heaviest in southern OH. Safe to say, the whole idea of this needing better sampling is spot on this time. I couldn't agree more man. actually some better sampling or understanding of the northern stream energy will help to b/c the placement of this boundary/arctic air will be the biggest factor is determining where this storm in the SW is goin to track. I don't know how good the upper air network is in Canada as far as sampling goes. this powerful system is actually only a small piece of this complicated puzzle for this storm b/c even if this storm remains quite strong and doesn't shear out as much as models have it, it still is goin to track where that boundary sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A lot of forecasts in MO-OH are going to bust if the 00z NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 wow models are truly lost with this event. 0z nam went WAY north. this is nuts. real curious to see GFS now. should be anywhere from Texas to Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A lot of forecasts in MO-OH are going to bust if the 00z NAM is right. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I couldn't agree more man. actually some better sampling or understanding of the northern stream energy will help to b/c the placement of this boundary/arctic air will be the biggest factor is determining where this storm in the SW is goin to track. I don't know how good the upper air network is in Canada as far as sampling goes. this powerful system is actually only a small piece of this complicated puzzle for this storm b/c even if this storm remains quite strong and doesn't shear out as much as models have it, it still is goin to track where that boundary sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A lot of forecasts in MO-OH are going to bust if the 00z NAM is right. yep....looks like for here it's some sort of mod to heavy frozen mess, (not snow), followed by nothing. Stay tuned, more fun runs coming up shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why? There's a swath of central Missouri through central Ohio that gets very little snow on that run. I don't have confidence in anything so not saying it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 thanks for posting that Hoosier! def more sampling sites in the US. so that could help as the northern energy gets closer to those. def wasn't expecting nam to go that north. wonder if gfs will do a northern jog to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why? Has little snow in the MO-OH corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 wow models are truly lost with this event. 0z nam went WAY north. this is nuts. real curious to see GFS now. should be anywhere from Texas to Minnesota What? I don't see this way north thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Has little snow in the MO-OH corridor. basically the axis of winterstorm watches although I imagine, without checking soundings, lots of sleet....maybe frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What? I don't see this way north thing. I was joking. LOL. im saying the confidence in the forecast is so low b/c models are still flip flopping. nam just went from putting the heavy snow axis from near STL now up to northern Iowa. im not buying into any solution right now. the consensus is horrible. waiting for runs tmrw to make final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Weirdest nam run ever. Indy gets 3 hours of precip and then nothing. The southern wave looks like a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What? I don't see this way north thing. I think he's referring to the first wave, but it was always suppose to be further north, just not nearly as wet and strong. Originally that was always suppose to be a light teaser for us before the main event. Now it IS the main event for us, and the follow up is south and out. Or were there 3 waves and that's the second???? my head hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Some of you know that I have been very bullish on the system for LAF since before this thread was created. I've been watching with some alarm as the third wave has seemed to slow down. By Sunday morning dry and cold air moves into the area from H85 to the surface before the precip can get into the area, both taking the track somewhat south and drying up the QPF in the dryer sector. Now going with less than 4" at LAF. Confidence is less that average, but it's look like the 0z run of the NAM has initialized fairly well north of the Montana/Canadian border. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yeah that pressure stuff is bottom of the barrel weenie stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I was joking. LOL. im saying the confidence in the forecast is so low b/c models are still flip flopping. nam just went from putting the heavy snow axis from near STL now up to northern Iowa. im not buying into any solution right now. the consensus is horrible. waiting for runs tmrw to make final call I think part of the problem in assessing north/south trends is with the multiple waves involved. NAM trending toward a less impressive wave for Sunday gives the illusion of it shifting from St. Louis to Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Woke up this morning to a decent consensus for 6" or more for LAF...and 14 hours later, down to an inch or two at best. Haven't seen this kind of "short term" model movement/failure in quite awhile. Pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It may be a weenie excuse but in addition to multiple waves I remember reading that models have a tough time maintaining consistency during seasonal changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 rgem at 48hrs....not sure how significant but nam doesn't have any semblance of low pressure at all in LA.... rgem has a 1008 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Skilling going with 0.5" or so tonight, and 3-6" tomorrow night. Right now virga has been overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has 500 mb still digging over southern CA at 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS thru 51 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS thru 51 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051 I think we're going to see something between the two, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 0z GFS through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Imagine if we all wasted about 5 days for essentially a marginally interesting event, not just here either, up the East Coast look to go from a big event to a small event with the runs tonight. Honestly if anyone is still championing this current pattern they need to think twice, as we are way too northern stream dominant and it is god awfully dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Funny how I was called silly by someone for writing off this storm before (in term of it being major). But whatever. My 3-6" call from before still looks solid, with isolated 6-10"+ lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z GFS/GEM not a total disaster here though not as good as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Only through 48 hours but gotta love these differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Last ten runs of 84 hour NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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