Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like IND is thinking 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 System looks impressive but is slow-moving and most of the energy will break away and move ahead into the southern Rockies, where it will likely do approximately what the models already think it will do. Just my opinion anyway, the pattern looks flat and energy will tend to be largely confined to southern stream. For anywhere north of central IL-IN-n OH to get much snow, there would have to be lake enhancement or phasing of some northern stream energy. This could happen for Chicago, Lake Michigan is not entirely frozen and weak energy is indicated. So my punt is for 5-8 inch snowfalls in s IL-IN and s.c OH, 1-3 inches further north but some dry spots could mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 more useful...NAM beyond 48 or GFS beyond day 10? Both are NCEP embarrassments. Anyways...feeling good about my original 2-4" fcst imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 dvn A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY INTOSUNDAY...AS MODELS ARE AN EXTREME EXAMPLE OF DISCONTINUITY. EVEN ATTHIS LATE STAGE...THERE ARE MODELS FORECASTING EXPLICITLY HEAVY SNOWAMOUNTS UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30...WHILE OTHERS PRODUCING LESS THAN 4INCHES EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS IS TROUBLING. IN THISINSTANCE...THE ECMWF NOW IS A VERY DRY OUTLIER...AS IS THEGFS...WHILE THE NAM...UKMET...AND GEM REMAIN QUITE WET...WITH 0.40TO 0.60 LIQUID OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. RATIOSLOOK TO BE IN THE 15 TO 17:1 RANGE...AS WIND SHOULD PREVENT ANY 20:1FROM VERIFYING. WITH SNOW ARRIVING ON FGEN FORCING TOWARD 18Z IN THENORTHWEST...AND WITH THAT BAND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THENIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT MODERATELY SNOW IN ANY LOCATION FOR MORE THAN 4HOURS...WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AFTER IT PASSES. THIS SHOULD KEEPAMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH IN OUR CWA. STILL...IT APPEARS THATOUR SOUTH COULD SEE LONG ENOUGH FORCING FOR A BROAD 5 TO 7 INCHESOVER A 18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION...THIS STILLSEEMS TO FIT WITH AN ADVISORY VS WARNING. I WILL ALSO GO ADVISORYFOR AREAS UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30 AS WELL...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 4INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. FOR OURSOUTH...I WILL BEGIN THE ADVISORY SATURDAY AT 6 PM...NORTH AT NOON.IF THIS HAD BEEN A CLOSED LOW SITUATION WITH ALL OTHER VARIABLE THESAME...I WOULD HAVE EASILY SEEN A SOLID WARNING EVENT...BUT WITH THEWAVE SO FAR SOUTH...IT FEEL AN ADVISORY IS A BEST FIT PRODUCT ATTHIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOT going 2-8 inches across the area: AS FOR HEADLINES...I HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANYHEADLINES. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE ANADVISORY TYPE EVENT WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OFTHE AREA...TO 4 TO 8 INCHES FAR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS MAYEXCEED 6 INCHES ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING...THE EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER A FAIRLY LONGDURATION...MORE THAN 12 HOURS...THUS WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET BY INTHESE AREAS AS WELL WITH AN ADVISORY. THE MAIN REASON FOR HOLDINGOFF...IS JUST TO MAKE SURE THAT THINGS DONT CHANGESIGNIFICANTLY...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING OVER AN ADVISORYFOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS caves to the NAM in terms of QPF for the event tonight. Widespread .25 QPF across WI/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't remember, what did we end up with in central OH? The airport had 9.9", but other parts of the city had 12"-15", especially on the West Side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18Z GFS....lol, all you can do is laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18Z GFS....lol, all you can do is laugh. This setup has been challenging for the models to sort out. Multi-waves ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow. The arctic air just crashes into Kentucky on the 18Z GFS. Perhaps we will end up getting more sleet and snow while getting hardly any freezing rain. Although, don't models have a tedency to shift north on the day before the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOT's first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nothing like the 18Z run to make people go WTF and pretty much silence this thread ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yea this kind of setup is hell on earth for models. multiple waves along a front with surging cold air from the north from huge high and surging intense waa from the south. those two will be duking out and I think models are struggling with the placement of the front. I remember the early Jan event that frontogenic band ended up moving very slowly due to a shortwave that rode up the front and that stalled the movement of the cold air. a lot of little details could change at the last second. hell our southern stream system hasn't even been sampled yet. wont have a full sample till 0z runs tmrw night. the natural baroclinic zone actually sits farther north where some snowpack remains so im not sure if models captured this correctly. a lot of challenging things that could have big impact on the system. also models were trying to close off a low at 500mb I think at one time. that would greatly change this overall setup. it is funny how euro before was the southern outlier and gfs was so north and now they have switched. the consistency in the models is a joke this winter. so much wobbling all the way up till the event begins. so my forecast is 1-12" of snow for here. LOL. jk. I think 5-7in is a safe bet for me. Im sitting in Chillicothe, IL just north of Peoria. im not sold on any one solution yet. things can still change. high ratios can throw in some surprises to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Tough forecast for most of us. Euro dropped QPF from nearly 0.50" on the 00z to a bit over 0.10" on the 12z for here. Seems too dry to me. Hopefully tonight's 00z guidance suite comes in with more consistency across the board. I guess for now I'm gonna go with 2-3" for here/QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Don't think we see what's really going to happen till the 12z runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Moderate snow, ~15F at VOK aka Target Bluff German Haus LunMILY RESTAURANT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I find this very interesting. Looking at the current 18z run of GFS I see that it has initialized the HP too far south than where it currently is. looking at the images I posted you can see 18z gfs has the 1036mb contour in far northern Montana however looking at the most recent surface map the 1036mb contour is up in central Canada. could be one reason why models have been shifting higher QPF and snow totals further south. not saying this will hold tomorrow because the arctic air could surge more but currently it doesn't have a good handle on it. like thundersnow just stated we really wont have a good idea till the runs tomorrow. we wont even see a full sampling till 0z runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Interesting thinking from IWX AFD this afternoon GREATEST CONFIDENCE LIES W/SAT NIGHT EARLY SUNPD AND HAVE BUMPED POPS FOR BOTH PDS. HWVR DETAIL UNCERTAINTYREMAINS ESP W/POTENTIAL MESOBANDING INVOF ARCTIC FNT SAT NIGHT. FORNOW WENT ALONG W/RAW CONSENSUS QPF WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWED PRIORGRIDS SANS FAR SOUTH WHERE GENERAL SOLUTION CONSENSUS IS WETTER SUNAFTN/SUN NIGHT. THUS TO GIVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM ALG PROJECTED 8 INCHSNOW CONTOUR...WILL ADD A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF EXISTING WATCH AS AHEDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well this is interesting for sure. 18z GFS did prog pressures across nrn MT at 0z tonight around 1036mb and looking at obs now, they are between 1028mb-1030mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well this is interesting for sure. 18z GFS did prog pressures across nrn MT at 0z tonight around 1036mb and looking at obs now, they are between 1028mb-1030mb yea maybe just a slower moving high/arctic air mass which would def help our cases in seeing more snow. I totally sound like a wishcaster now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well this is interesting for sure. 18z GFS did prog pressures across nrn MT at 0z tonight around 1036mb and looking at obs now, they are between 1028mb-1030mb More evidence of this discrepancy: Williston ND Actual pressure at 6PM CST (0z tonight): 1029.4 mb 18z GFS forecasted pressure (0z tonight): 1032.4 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yeah that pressure stuff is bottom of the barrel weenie stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well this is interesting for sure. 18z GFS did prog pressures across nrn MT at 0z tonight around 1036mb and looking at obs now, they are between 1028mb-1030mbGrasping straws.3rd wave will still be a non-event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Grasping straws. 3rd wave will still be a non-event up here. good chance it's a non-event 50 miles south as well. Absolute best case scenario, the baroclinic zone hangs up just enough to prevent Saturday night from blasting through in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So, Sunday, as it stands now, is a whiff for NE IL? Am I understanding that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So, Sunday, as it stands now, is a whiff for NE IL? Am I understanding that right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam coming in pretty wet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam coming in pretty wet.. What's it do for Macomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What's it do for Macomb? 5-8 feet for you..jk.Pretty good for your area... This whole setup is suspicipus ....Tonights run looks a little different..ANyone else notice? Not as suppressed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yea this kind of setup is hell on earth for models. multiple waves along a front with surging cold air from the north from huge high and surging intense waa from the south. those two will be duking out and I think models are struggling with the placement of the front. I remember the early Jan event that frontogenic band ended up moving very slowly due to a shortwave that rode up the front and that stalled the movement of the cold air. a lot of little details could change at the last second. hell our southern stream system hasn't even been sampled yet. wont have a full sample till 0z runs tmrw night. the natural baroclinic zone actually sits farther north where some snowpack remains so im not sure if models captured this correctly. a lot of challenging things that could have big impact on the system. also models were trying to close off a low at 500mb I think at one time. that would greatly change this overall setup. it is funny how euro before was the southern outlier and gfs was so north and now they have switched. the consistency in the models is a joke this winter. so much wobbling all the way up till the event begins. so my forecast is 1-12" of snow for here. LOL. jk. I think 5-7in is a safe bet for me. Im sitting in Chillicothe, IL just north of Peoria. im not sold on any one solution yet. things can still change. high ratios can throw in some surprises to usually when I read this from a poster inside 72 hours of an event I'm thinking . But I have to admit there is virtually no consensus right now and models are still flip flopping amongst themselves. I mentioned in the Ohio thread that the 12z runs were comical for Ohio. The ggem shows ZERO accumulations south of i70, while the euro has the axis of heaviest in southern OH. Safe to say, the whole idea of this needing better sampling is spot on this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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