Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just a cautionary glance at the system off the coast of California. I think there could be changes coming especially considering how vigorous the system looks currently. No way that it is going to be correctly sampled. Here is an infrared view of the system: It really is impressive. I was trying to remember the last time there was something like that off the coast of California. Models seem to weaken it fairly quickly but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As much as we weenies like to cling to the "but it hasn't been properly sampled yet" last straw, all the models are showing a healthy vort slamming into the coast (it's not like they are initializing a turd), the problem is with the PV which just crushes it. And PVs this winter have been monsters. South makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That baby is HUGE. Kind of has a Hurricane like look to it. Does the TWC have a name for it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 First call for ORD: 3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As much as we weenies like to cling to the "but it hasn't been properly sampled yet" last straw, all the models are showing a healthy vort slamming into the coast (it's not like they are initializing a turd), the problem is with the PV which just crushes it. And PVs this winter have been monsters. South makes sense. Concur with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just a cautionary glance at the system off the coast of California. I think there could be changes coming especially considering how vigorous the system looks currently. No way that it is going to be correctly sampled. Here is an infrared view of the system: Definitely looks impressive on satellite. It has a well defined eye like a hurricane lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 First call for ORD: 3.0" good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Preliminary afternoon zone totals from the NWS briefing. Totals and orientation look similar to February 5-6, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Totals and orientation look similar to February 5-6, 2010. I don't remember, what did we end up with in central OH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That baby is HUGE. Kind of has a Hurricane like look to it. Does the TWC have a name for it?? Titan. Appropriately named after seeing that WV image http://www.weather.com/news/winter-storm-titan-ice-storm-snowstorm-west-midwest-northeast-20140226 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Titan. Appropriately named after seeing that WV image I haven't watched TWC in years. The naming of winter storms just makes me laugh . To each there own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 While at the same time, the I-72 corridor from Springfield to Champaign, and then to Danville, gets socked with at least 10-12 inches. If I had to make the call I'd say I-72 is the sweet spot right now. I fully expect 8-10 over here at Pittsfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF plumes still 6.change for ORD with .8" of wave 1 taint, dropped most of the low balls and big dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF plumes still 6.change for ORD with .8" of wave 1 taint, dropped most of the low balls and big dogs Beat me to it. Still a large cluster from 6-9" and the big dogs aren't far south with good cluster at IKK from 8-13" First call for MBY will be 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Fine, you win. Done making calls. Chicago WX vs Hoosier in a Steel Cage match. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF plumes still 6.change for ORD with .8" of wave 1 taint, dropped most of the low balls and big dogs Same with DTW, actually decent consensus besides a random high or low run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol 18z NAM coming in N with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol 18z NAM coming in N with both Wave 2 and 3. there's no good reason to trust it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol 18z NAM coming in N with both Wave 2 and 3. How far north? What's the bullseye? I'm like sitting 70 miles north of the last bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 there's no good reason to trust it right now I would agree, however we are closing in very quickly on the event, it is about 24 hours out from when wave 2 erupts over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There's no good reason to trust any model right now tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM going beefier with Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO and GFS were both N besides the 12z run. Hell, 6z GFS just had it way north and had very good ensemble agreement. GGEM went from being way S on the 0z run to a pretty big jump N on it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM has been going beefy with waves in the 24-42 hour timeframe only to back off all winter (including tonight), meanwhile the GFS has been pretty damn steady (strictly talking about Sat night) and the Euro which has done excellent with QPF is bone dry. Everything says discount the NAM until it gains support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM going beefier with Saturday. Yeah most of the models have been trending stronger with the 2nd wave vs the 3rd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Sunday wave kinda looks like it wants to come in farther south on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM has been going beefy with waves in the 24-42 hour timeframe only to back off all winter (including tonight), meanwhile the GFS has been pretty damn steady (strictly talking about Sat night) and the Euro which has done excellent with QPF is bone dry. Everything says discount the NAM until it gains support. GFS is pretty strong with the second wave as well, it just dampens early which GFS has done with waves several times this winter. Really the only model that is sub par with the second wave is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18Z NAM now showing 48hr QPF over 0.5" for MSN. That seems unlikely but even if we only get half of that it's a decent snowfall with higher ratios. MKX is forecasting 3.4" total here which has seemed reasonable, but maybe it's underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM = Tim approved I'll be glad when this thing is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Parts of C. IL and C. OH all barely get a couple inches on this run. NAM had them at 10-12+ on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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