Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Right now Id say 2-5" is a good call for SE MI. I believe the second wave is our best bet. I appear that it has been coming in a bit stronger which is sending the 3rd wave more to our south. Yeah your call sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Skilling going with a usual big range 3-8" area wide. RPM was jacked with 7-8" area wide. I like that general area wide range though would maybe chop an inch off the top end unless it appears that this comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's quite optimistic. I'm probably looking at an inch here. That maybe true with Howell ... that area seems to get less with these set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro looks south & SLP looks weak, at least to my eye. Only 0.10-0.15" QPF for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, it was a miss to the south for 3rd wave. Besides maybe a half inch late tonight, this is strictly with Saturday night into Sunday His RPM seems to extend that 7-9" range right into MI with the map he is showing. That would be great!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, it was a miss to the south for 3rd wave. Besides maybe a half inch late tonight, this is strictly with Saturday night into Sunday skilling snow.png Euro/GFS going south with Sunday is fine, kinda of saw that coming but they're still pretty dry Saturday night, Euro in particular so I'm having a hard time coming around to those kind of totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Only 0.10-0.15" QPF for ORD. 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro/GFS going south with Sunday is fine, kinda of saw that coming but they're still pretty dry Saturday night, Euro in particular so I'm having a hard time coming around to those kind of totals. Yeah I don't either. 3-6" is better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Only 0.10-0.15" QPF for ORD. Quite a cut from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sounds like big cuts on the 12z Euro. Think my first call of 6" for LAF is too high. 2-4" sounds better...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I believe the second wave is our best bet. I appear that it has been coming in a bit stronger which is sending the 3rd wave more to our south. Yeah your call sounds about right. Yes, I do agree with Josh on this one, 2-5" looks like a reasonable call at this junction. FWIW DTX is going with 2-4" in most places especially south of I-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sounds like big cuts on the 12z Euro. Think my first call of 6" for LAF is too high. 2-4" sounds better. Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Quite a cut from 00z. garbage consistency across the board...save for maybe the GFS handling with the northern wave Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here we go again. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's quite optimistic. I'm probably looking at an inch here. It fits in pretty well with model "consensus" as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Quite a cut from 00z. Huge outlier right now with respect to QPF, it is a bit suspect if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here we go again. Fine, you win. Done making calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Fine, you win. Done making calls. The break up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Fine, you win. Done making calls. I just don't understand the rush to jump when basically every other 12z run hammers us. And it's not like the Euro hasn't been bouncing around with the details from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY... SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SLEET POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY- BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN... FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE... LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN... CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES... LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD... HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE... LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * TIMING: SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. * MAIN IMPACT: SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEGATIVE TRAVEL IMPACTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY ARE YET UNDETERMINED. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's all gonna depend on the strength of the PV, how far south that Arctic front progresses, WAA with the LLJ, and where that baroclinic zone finally sets up. I would expect that changes impacting each of these variables account for our model shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, I do agree with Josh on this one, 2-5" looks like a reasonable call at this junction. FWIW DTX is going with 2-4" in most places especially south of I-69. Maybe we should throw in a 6" lolli in Wyandotte can't ignore that magnet I will say I have really liked DTXs process this winter. They don't jump from run to run and have kept things well in perspective and not hyper IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Won't know for certain until tonight, but I think as a whole the heaviest snow band and ice line will shift up to 50 miles south of what was initially thought... Just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe we should throw in a 6" lolli in Wyandotte can't ignore that magnet I will say I have really liked DTXs process this winter. They don't jump from run to run and have kept things well in perspective and not hyper IMO. Yeah living and dying by every run looks bad from a NWS office. Best to watch for trends and adjust as you get closer. If anything the trend is for a stronger second wave which would be favorable for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Won't know for certain until tonight, but I think as a whole the heaviest snow band and ice line will shift up to 50 miles south of what was initially thought... Just a guess It might be longer than that. We won't even have full sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs. Pure gut feeling here but I'd say we are probably within 75 miles of the final solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sounds like big cuts on the 12z Euro. Think my first call of 6" for LAF is too high. 2-4" sounds better...for now.Right Right on cue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It might be longer than that. We won't even have full sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs. Pure gut feeling here but I'd say we are probably within 75 miles of the final solution right now. AGREED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just a cautionary glance at the system off the coast of California. I think there could be changes coming especially considering how vigorous the system looks currently. No way that it is going to be correctly sampled. Here is an infrared view of the system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 0.0 to 10.0" in six hours. What a crappy model. 2:28 12z nam clown.gif Look, if this were to happen, I would cry buckets. Macomb, 2-3 inches? While at the same time, the I-72 corridor from Springfield to Champaign, and then to Danville, gets socked with at least 10-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just a cautionary glance at the system off the coast of California. I think there could be changes coming especially considering how vigorous the system looks currently. No way that it is going to be correctly sampled. Here is an infrared view of the system: It was beautiful overnight on WV, what a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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