michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's pretty good mind you, and certainly way above average...but we also saw two 6"+ events in an 8 day span in Feb 2007. That to me was a lot more rare/historic. Now, a couple of locations around LAF have seen two 10"+ events this winter (Jan 5 and Feb 4-5). That's up there on the all time scale. And I was wrong about the 12z NAM for LAF...last piece does get in here with about 0.50" QPF. Would be a solid hit. We saw two 10"+ storms in a 7-day span New Years week this winter. Little things like that that get completely overlooked by the media and even the NWS when tallying all the impressive numbers from a winter like this, but in a strange way, they are some of the rarest feats to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS is way south with the 3rd wave. Bringing snow even into STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS is way south with the 3rd wave. Bringing snow even into STL. yep, we've been unable to lock in any consistency with this piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS is way south with the 3rd wave. Bringing snow even into STL. And the consistency of inconsistency continues for the GFS. Anyone got odds on the 18z going north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yep, we've been unable to lock in any consistency with this piece. SE Nebraska goes from 10-12 on the 6z to 1-3 on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Probably will continue till sampling. Would of thought with better ensemble agreement we might see the 12z run hold but nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Should be partially sampled tonight, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow... Wagons 150 miles south. Went from 3-5 to sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z UKie. 12 hour increments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 looks like uncle went south, man the wagons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 2nd wave is interesting here. Short range models (NAM/SREFs/RGEM) all fairly bullish, with the SREF mean now over 5". I think that's pushing it but around 3" sounds reasonable as a consensus number for these models. Globals in contrast are terrible. First wave misses just to the north, second just to the south, and the third wave way south. 12z GFS was an improvement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 looks like uncle went south, man the wagons If it did, it wasn't by much. Pretty close to its 0z run IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With the last storm that shot up through Wisconsin, GFS/Euro/CMC had the correct track over Madison, and NAM had the track over Lake Michigan until 12 hrs before when it corrected west by 150 miles.. Think I will be watching GFS/Euro quote name="Chicago WX" post="2836515" timestamp="1393593565"]Great agreement between the 6z GFS and NAM. Where the GFS has the heaviest snow...the NAM has little to nothing. For LAF, it's either 0.0" or 12.0"+. 6z NAM... 2:28 6z NAM clown.gif 6z GFS... 2:28 6z gfs clown.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Spwild, it's the lack of a square bracket at the beginning of the post that's causing that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 To be clear, I know of no one that is giving the NAM any credence with this event...right now. That one post of mine was just a "for fun comparison". Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 To be clear, I know of no one that is giving the NAM any credence with this event...right now. That one post of mine was just a "for fun comparison". Nothing more, nothing less. mmmhmmmmm Looks like my companies two main offices could both end up with big snows from the same system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 looks like uncle went south, man the wagons The models on this storm are amazing. North/South alternating 200 or so miles with every new run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 mmmhmmmmm Looks like my companies two main offices could both end up with big snows from the same system. Where's that? 12z GGEM actually came north a bit from its 0z run for us, or maybe a little wetter...but it was on the southern edge of the guidance. Looks like a good hit from northern MO to OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's not much but the PV lobe up over Canada is further south on the 12z GFS compared to the 6z run which is obviously causing the southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where's that? 12z GGEM actually came north a bit from its 0z run for us, or maybe a little wetter...but it was on the southern edge of the guidance. Looks like a good hit from northern MO to OH. Yea GGEM looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z RGEM looks good for Southern Wisconsin with the 2nd wave, between 0.3-0.6" QPF for this part of the region. May have to bump up my initial call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's not much but the PV lobe up over Canada is further south on the 12z GFS compared to the 6z run which is obviously causing the southern track.I was watching the 12z GFS roll in and it really was a small difference but it was evident by tonight...so hopefully that means the models stop bouncing around tonight, wherever they end up. Sampling of the energy off the CA coast will help too although the PV is probably going to dominate so any small shifts with the PV will probably at the end of the day control where this goes IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 2nd wave is interesting here. Short range models (NAM/SREFs/RGEM) all fairly bullish, with the SREF mean now over 5". I think that's pushing it but around 3" sounds reasonable as a consensus number for these models. Globals in contrast are terrible. First wave misses just to the north, second just to the south, and the third wave way south. 12z GFS was an improvement though. This is crazy with the models. I wonder if the 2nd wave is going to be stronger for us. This winter there has been systems have increased strength as we approached. I actually would not mind a 3 part system ... this could be a very good way to 'spread the wealth' if the 3rd wave is south. Only concern 'damage wise' would be ice storm amounts in parts of IN/OH in the 2nd wave followed by a decent snow in the 3rd wave. Hmmmm ... This pattern configuration has toyed with the models this winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was watching the 12z GFS roll in and it really was a small difference but it was evident by tonight...so hopefully that means the models stop bouncing around tonight, wherever they end up. Sampling of the energy off the CA coast will help too although the PV is probably going to dominate so any small shifts with the PV will probably at the end of the day control where this goes IMO. Exactly, such a subtle difference. Still think there is room to come back north. There was such good ensemble support with the 6z for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, such a subtle difference. Still think there is room to come back north. There was such good ensemble support with the 6z for it. +NAO ... I agree there remains a possible north shift (not a guarantee though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Spwild, it's the lack of a square bracket at the beginning of the post that's causing that problem. That be Spwild, it's the lack of a square bracket at the beginning of the post that's causing that problem. That better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 0.0 to 10.0" in six hours. What a crappy model. 2:28 12z nam clown.gif Look, if this were to happen, I would cry buckets. Macomb, 2-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where's that? 12z GGEM actually came north a bit from its 0z run for us, or maybe a little wetter...but it was on the southern edge of the guidance. Looks like a good hit from northern MO to OH. Here in Indy and the other is location in Bethlehem, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My first call for LAF is 7-10" with some potential upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GEFS follow the OP and are south across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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