Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOT's current grid forecasts highs in the low 20s. I assume a better track for this area would tick the temp up a couple degrees, but it seems like this would be a good ratio event regardless. 6z GFS keeps us in the mid teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you all watch a lot of rando tv mets, I think the only time I watch tv for weather info is when there are live twister feeds That's the problem. Many of us aren't looking for it. But this idiot posted it on Twitter, then people shared it on FB, etc etc. It's maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z GFS keeps us in the mid teens Well then, that'd be better than just a "good" ratio event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Since it is being discussed quite a bit, I was just reading through the January 4-5 event thread. It's not as similar as I had thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 excellent I80 band for N. IL Sat night on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Since it is being discussed quite a bit, I was just reading through the January 4-5 event thread. It's not as similar as I had thought. I've never understood the comparisons. That was a totally different evolution/storm system. Back to real time...12z NAM hitting your hood good at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I've never understood the comparisons. That was a totally different evolution/storm system. Back to real time...12z NAM hitting your hood good at 42 hours. yeah, i was getting both long duration events mixed up in my head, but you're correct totally different. and yeah, 12z NAM is quality with the Sat night snows for Chicagoland. Sunday probably still a miss south but it's slowly working its way back to the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ice Ice Baby... Could be very nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wagons north on the 3rd wave on the NAM from the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6-7" here tomorrow night into Sunday. Matches the plume mean nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6-7" here tomorrow night into Sunday. Marches with the plume mean nicely If i had to guess based on other guidance, the NAM is too generous with QPF Saturday night (typical NAM bias, little support - euro particularly dry with this wave) and still too slow/south with Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM still a whiff for here, but Indy should do well. Need 6.0" at IND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM still a whiff for here, but Indy should do well. Need 6.0" at IND... GO BIG OR GO HOME at this point! Your #1 guy still saying biggest totals will be north of LAF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wagons north on 06 GFS and 12Z NAM.... One or two more shifts north please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If i had to guess based on other guidance, the NAM is too generous with QPF Saturday night (typical NAM bias, little support - euro particularly dry with this wave) and still too slow/south with Sunday. Possibly but it would handle the banding better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Possibly but it would handle the banding better we'll see, i'm not going to take that kind of QPF seriously unless it gains support. The euro has been doing well with QPF lately and is much drier with that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I've had three. And two more between 5.0 and 5.9". Wow thats got to be up there for all-time for you guys! I have had 5 (well, 4 storms plus the system+front on 1-26/27 dropped over 6" in less than 24 hrs so I counted it as one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wagons north on 06 GFS and 12Z NAM.... One or two more shifts north please. yeah...NAM is a good hit for Wisconsin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good day to all, I am new here; appreciated reading your comments. I am retired airline flight dispatcher and flight weather forecaster, Chicago area 30 years. Noted from Day 3 forward the Euro/ECMWF tends to exceed GFS/GEM in accuracy over US by about 33%. Asking your opinion, experience, views in comparison.Also, for Chicago-Detroit don't see more than 4-6 inches of snow thru March 5th.Potential historic ice-storm as mT moisture from Pacific + mT moisture from Gulf + cA over central US = 24-36 hr overrunning WAA icing event. March 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NCEP is saying to discard the NAM on the upcoming event, too amplified, too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think a Euro/GFS blend is the way to go...GFS winning the consistency battle for now and the 0z Euro took a step towards the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow thats got to be up there for all-time for you guys! I have had 5 (well, 4 storms plus the system+front on 1-26/27 dropped over 6" in less than 24 hrs so I counted it as one) It's pretty good mind you, and certainly way above average...but we also saw two 6"+ events in an 8 day span in Feb 2007. That to me was a lot more rare/historic. Now, a couple of locations around LAF have seen two 10"+ events this winter (Jan 5 and Feb 4-5). That's up there on the all time scale. And I was wrong about the 12z NAM for LAF...last piece does get in here with about 0.50" QPF. Would be a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here is latest model diagnostic discussion from NCEP quoted ..SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SHEARING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION FRI AND SAT...PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUSCONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS A RELATIVELY STRONG OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE CURRENT ENERGY SHEARING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ADVANCING RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TWD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z GFS ARE VERY WELL CLUSTERED TOGETHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NON-NAM CONSENSUSWILL BE PREFERRED. ...ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND DRAPING SOUTH ACROSS THEOHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUN AND MON...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS MEAN AND THE 00Z GEFS MEANCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGEASIDE FROM THE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOW...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SAT INTO SUN. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE ATTENDANT ARCTIC FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE OH VLY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVESTHROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS IS SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODELCONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z NAM AT LEAST INITIALLY FARTHER NORTH BEFORE ITS BOUNDARY SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z UKMET BOTH TRENDED MORE SUPPRESSED...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS. THE 00Z ECMWFSPLITS THE DIFF ESP BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS SOLNS. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORT STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF OVERALL...WITH THE 21Z SREF MEAN APPEARING TO BE TOO FAR NORTH. CONFIDENCE REMAIN LIMITED...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...WILL SUPPORT A BLEND OF THE LATEST GEFS MEAN/ECENS MEAN AND ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's the problem. Many of us aren't looking for it. But this idiot posted it on Twitter, then people shared it on FB, etc etc. It's maddening. He posted it on Feb 25 and it keeps taking the rounds. Just another problem with social media and the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NCEP WINTER WEATHER COMMENT RE MODELS HANDLING OF MARCH 2-4 STORM:WITH THE NAM'S HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE NOT A PREFERRED SOLUTION...CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE SLOW/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE CUT BACK AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BACK IN EASTERN KS ON DAY 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 we'll see, i'm not going to take that kind of QPF seriously unless it gains support. The euro has been doing well with QPF lately and is much drier with that wave. FWIW, the UKMET and GGEM have about 0.3" liquid tomorrow night here. If the GFS and Euro also come in wetter, the NAM may be onto something, though it could still be a bit overdone. Excellent fgen signal with good convergence at 850 and the LLJ induced by the incoming southern stream wave will slow the southward progression of the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW, the UKMET and GGEM have about 0.3" liquid tomorrow night here. If the GFS and Euro also come in wetter, the NAM may be onto something, though it could still be a bit overdone. Excellent fgen signal with good convergence at 850 and the LLJ induced by the incoming southern stream wave will slow the southward progression of the baroclinic zone. definitely something to watch, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 0.0 to 10.0" in six hours. What a crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Please ignore the NAM ... latest SREF or SPC-WRF until 18hrs out then RAP to start of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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