Radioman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I made a final call of 4" (3" sat night, 1" sunday) IMBY last night...it's bullish but i'll ride it given lake assistance. 6.5 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Comparison from the last GFS run is definitely north. 06z:00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 problem with the GFS is it has been wobbling north and back south every run, would be nice to see it stick with a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 problem with the GFS is it has been wobbling north and back south every run, would be nice to see it stick with a solution. Euro to some extent also. I'm going to ride the " it hasn't been properly sampled train," .... Weenie hope train rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Come on NW trend. ... don't worry my hopes are not high but one can always hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 per LOT: south trend, 1-8" far nw to far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06z GFS is literally a long duration pixie dust storm verbatim for Detroit. The highest any 6hr shows for QPF is a whopping 0.10". I'll pass on that crap again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06z GFS is literally a long duration pixie dust storm verbatim for Detroit. The highest any 6hr shows for QPF is a whopping 0.10". I'll pass on that crap again. actually...it shows 0.12" in a 6hr period...and there is no reason to assume its pixie dust either. Plus it gets us closer to beating a centuries old record. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great agreement between the 6z GFS and NAM. Where the GFS has the heaviest snow...the NAM has little to nothing. For LAF, it's either 0.0" or 12.0"+. 6z NAM... 6z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great agreement between the 6z GFS and NAM. Where the GFS has the heaviest snow...the NAM has little to nothing. For LAF, it's either 0.0" or 12.0"+. 6z NAM... 2:28 6z NAM clown.gif 6z GFS... 2:28 6z gfs clown.gif Good thing is the NAM is complete garbage until about 24hrs out. 06z GFS and Euro are pretty similar, which should bode well for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The one thing is, the NAM hasn't been exclusively garbage outside 24 hrs this winter and has been the first to catch on to NW trends a couple times. It's weird having it sitting there as a far south outlier. All that said, it's an obvious toss given the complete lack of consensus and will likely capitulate to a GFS/Euro blend solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great agreement between the 6z GFS and NAM. Where the GFS has the heaviest snow...the NAM has little to nothing. For LAF, it's either 0.0" or 12.0"+. 6z NAM... 2:28 6z NAM clown.gif 6z GFS... 2:28 6z gfs clown.gif Have to love clown maps. Spot in IN/OH border has 15"+ per GFS and not a flake per NAM Oh those models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The one thing is, the NAM hasn't been exclusively garbage outside 24 hrs this winter and has been the first to catch on to NW trends a couple times. It's weird having it sitting there as a far south outlier. All that said, it's an obvious toss given the complete lack of consensus and will likely capitulate to a GFS/Euro blend solution. I think the NAM was initially a southern/eastern outlier at first with the 1/5 storm. Then it jumped well northwest and was pretty close after the jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Part time Chicago TV Met Tim McGill just posted the GFS snowfall map showing 18" for ORD. People flipping out on Twitter. Seriously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good thing is the NAM is complete garbage until about 24hrs out. 06z GFS and Euro are pretty similar, which should bode well for those areas. Yeah...thought it was funny, as you can't get much different between two models inside 4 days. Still not sure what to expect here though. Hoosier hammering, seemingly rooting for, the 7/10 split has me a bit concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 actually...it shows 0.12" in a 6hr period... Whoops!!! My mistake! As far as the record, it would be nice to hit it, but I'm not pressed over it. Just no more grinders. And as far as the type of snow event, I'd bet on seeing fine splitting flakes or pixie dust over the fluffy/high ratio stuff, given that we'll be well north of the best lift/moisture (even on the 06z GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you all watch a lot of rando tv mets, I think the only time I watch tv for weather info is when there are live twister feeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Whoops!!! My mistake! As far as the record, it would be nice to hit it, but I'm not pressed over it. Just no more grinders. And as far as the type of snow event, I'd bet on seeing fine splitting flakes or pixie dust over the fluffy/high ratio stuff, given that we'll be well north of the best lift/moisture (even on the 06z GFS). Hey, 0.02 is 0.02" I think there is a way to look up DGZ in the models (not sure if it goes this far out though?) so technically you can probably tell what kind of ratios the GFS is intimating. But really I wouldnt even waste my time on such details at this stage. Clown map have a spot in IN/OH border that has 15" per GFS and 0.0" per NAM. Still all over the place. I know you dislike grinders, but have you noticed how dirty the snow looks in spots? Might as well cover it up and go for that record. Spring wont get here any faster, so what the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah...thought it was funny, as you can't get much different between two models inside 4 days. Still not sure what to expect here though. Hoosier hammering, seemingly rooting for, the 7/10 split has me a bit concerned. 8.2" final call for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 9z SREF is entertaining for IND. Total QPF below (mean has 1.21"). Notice the lone wolf at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF plumes with major upward movement at ORD, mean up to 6.5", 5 members over 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you all watch a lot of rando tv mets, I think the only time I watch tv for weather info is when there are live twister feeds Like back in November when the bad storm came & the CBS met told us all to put books on our heads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you all watch a lot of rando tv mets, I think the only time I watch tv for weather info is when there are live twister feeds This and Skilling sometimes for snow events. And of course Cheryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 And of course Cheryl Winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 8.2" final call for LAF Hope so. I think I'm starting my call at 6.0". Can adjust downward or upward from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hope so. I think I'm starting my call at 6.0". Can adjust downward or upward from there... how many 6+ events has laf had this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF plumes with major upward movement at ORD, mean up to 6.5", 5 members over 10" One of the more impressive one run jumps this winter. Also, looks like half the 6z GFS ensemble members bring the .75" liquid line up to or past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 One of the more impressive one run jumps this winter. Also, looks like half the 6z GFS ensemble members bring the .75" liquid line up to or past us. I mentioned the 6z GEFS last page, would be really nice to see some of these north/wetter shifts stick instead of just flipping back south on the next run. The GFS in particular seems to be the most consistent with the general idea but even it is wobbling back and forth each run with how far north sunday comes. Hoping for nice trends with 12z/0z...i have no interest in a 48 hr moderate hit but I'm always game for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 One of the more impressive one run jumps this winter. Also, looks like half the 6z GFS ensemble members bring the .75" liquid line up to or past us. LOT's current grid forecasts highs in the low 20s. I assume a better track for this area would tick the temp up a couple degrees, but it seems like this would be a good ratio event regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 how many 6+ events has laf had this winter? I've had three. And two more between 5.0 and 5.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.