Powerball Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I've never seen a full-on 1-foot storm and I'd really love to. How did your area do with GHD 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Today's recap (so you don't have to read pages) - Alek punted (shocker?) - Someone called this wave a cornfield storm - Everyone complained of a southward shift - Some dude went hardcore weenie and posted a lot of smileys and thought there would be a foot of snow or more - Some site called forecast.io popped up and changed snow totals for Detroit 3 times today - WXBell got called a weenie site with a lot of weenies and weenie related content - The above point about WXBell was then refuted - Someone misspelled non-sense Other than that, no one really has any grasp on totals...... 2-5" is the right call for Chicagoland... like it has been for about 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 2-5" has been the right call for Chicagoland... like has been the case for about 48 hoursFirst call: 6.2 sat pm- sun night.Edit..more at your bank clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 First call: 6.2 sat pm- sun night. Edit..more at your bank clock. for clarification, my 2-5" call is for the entire 2 maybe 3 part event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 for clarification, my 2-5" call is for the entire 2 maybe 3 part event.pretty wide call. might as well go 1-5 and cover all your bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 First call: 6.2 sat pm- sun night. Edit..more at your bank clock. your bullish calls have been doing well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just as an FYI, when posting links like that in the future, be sure to remove your address... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That forecast.io website seems about as accurate as the Farmer's Almanac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Still punting this one as I will be lucky to get 1-2" ... IL/IN/OH get March in like a Lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 pretty wide call. might as well go 1-5 and cover all your bases. haha, fair. I always hate when LOT busts out a 4-10" call. 4.0 IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 your bullish calls have been doing well Unfortunately, no science behind it. But I've seen Tom S. get these right plenty over the years. He is not all model driven. Seasonal trends and a little climo. to boot, and maybe some lake water makes me more positive. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When I was at work I saw last night's SREFs, and they were quite warm into 18Z Sunday. I think they had 40s for southern half of central Indiana with upper 30s around IND. Haven't looked at anything since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When I was at work I saw last night's SREFs, and they were quite warm into 18Z Sunday. I think they had 40s for southern half of central Indiana with upper 30s around IND. Haven't looked at anything since. 15z mean is in the mid 30's at 18z Sunday for IND. Pretty wild spread though...mid 50's to low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 After reading this thread and looking at various model runs I still think I might do better at this stage by throwing darts on the upcoming weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Unfortunately, no science behind it. But I've seen Tom S. get these right plenty over the years. He is not all model driven. Seasonal trends and a little climo. to boot, and maybe some lake water makes me more positive. We shall see. Skillings love affair with his RPM model sometimes gets him in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 After reading this thread and looking at various model runs I still think I might do better at this stage by throwing darts on the upcoming weekend system. IND has got the dart board out Data continues to suggest that a winter storm will be a threat to central Indiana and the surrounding region this weekend. Precipitation will be likely as early as Saturday night, with snow favored north, and freezing rain/sleet favored further south, along with some snow. A variety of precipitation types may be experienced at any one location Saturday night through Sunday night, with any remaining precipitation transitioning to snow early Monday as the system exits the area and colder air filters in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Skillings love affair with his RPM model sometimes gets him in trouble I could agree with that somewhat. But I've been watching Tom Skilling since 1984 long before the model plethora we have today. And if you missed thundersnow's earlier post Skilling admitted model consensus was south but other factors lead him to believe the models are too far south. I have seen him do this before. Lastly, can't name to many snows this year where his calls were crazily off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I've been sitting by quietly since I have nothing constructive to add to the thread. I will say, though, that it is quite entertaining. I have liked where I sit for several days and I still do. I just hope we don't get 'split' though, as Hoosier alluded to earlier. I've felt all along that in Indiana between US 30 and I 70 will see the highest total accumulations from all of the waves, maybe a little south of 30 in the western part of the state. Not a mby forecast, just kind of a model blend from the past few days. An ensemble mean inside my head, so to speak. lol Bring it on, because now it's all about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 15z mean is in the mid 30's at 18z Sunday for IND. Pretty wild spread though...mid 50's to low 20's. 21z down to 33º at 18z...and then drops off the table. No surprise, as they were pretty whacked...considering all of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe a stupid question, but is the SREF being skewed by the NAM's warm, strong north solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The LAF crew will enjoy the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The LAF crew will enjoy the 0z NAM. Classic pencil thin screw zone while we get 4-6" Saturday night into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe a stupid question, but is the SREF being skewed by the NAM's warm, strong north solution? Op NAM is actually running colder than the mean. The skew is some super warm "other" outliers. Don't really pay it (SREF) much mind at that range anyways. The LAF crew will enjoy the 0z NAM. Hoosier approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Firstly, to comment on a couple things, let me go ahead and do so. That's not my real address, don't worry, I'm not that stupid lol. It's a generic one in Macomb. Secondly, in 2011, I think that was the event with like 5 to 7 inches or something? It's been a few years. Now, finally, something reliable. THE LONG TERM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO MAIN SNOW EVENTS.ONE LINGERING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITHLIGHT SNOW. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE OTHER THAN THE DRY GFSCONTINUES TO SUPPORT ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SUPPORTED FORECAST AT THIS POINT AND HAVENO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM IT. THUS...THE FRIDAY PM EVENT SHOULDTOTAL 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND IN THE NORTH 1/2OF THE CWA.THE NEXT SNOW EVENT IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.THIS EVENT MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TWO DISTINCT WAVES/PERIODS OF SNOW WITHIT...ONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE NORTH...ANDANOTHER STRONGER SURGE OF SNOW IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE SATURDAY NIGHTAND SUNDAY. SNOW RATIOS APPEAR VERY FLUFFY...AND IF WE HAD ZEROWIND...WE MIGHT VERIFY 18-20:1 RATIOS AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS.HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND...THATWILL CREATE COMPACTION OF SNOW AMOUNTS AND SOME DRIFTING AS ITSHATTERS CRYSTALS. THUS...I AM MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A PROLONGEDLIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES PER 6 HOUR PERIODSATURDAY NIGHT. A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW OFFERS A CHALLENGE TOFORECAST. IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS RATESREMAIN SLOW AND WINDS NOT TOO HIGH. AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND 8 INCHES INTHE SOUTH OVER A 36 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. THAT WILL LOOK LIKE A LARGEAMOUNT...BUT AGAIN WITH RATHER MILD IMPACTS...MORE SUPPORTIVE OFADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT A PROLONGEDADVISORY MAY BE USED FOR THIS EVENT IN THE SOUTH 1/2 FOR SATURDAYLATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ^^^This is what weather.gov said. I'll take my 8 inches. It's within my original guess. 12-20 is what the "inaccurate" site says Still full-on weenie, but toning it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 First call Imby 2-4 inches storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Caplan riding the NAM hard. And Schwarz jumping on that bandwagon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Firstly, to comment on a couple things, let me go ahead and do so. That's not my real address, don't worry, I'm not that stupid lol. It's a generic one in Macomb. Secondly, in 2011, I think that was the event with like 5 to 7 inches or something? It's been a few years. I'll take my 8 inches. It's within my original guess. 12-20 is what the "inaccurate" site says Still full-on weenie, but toning it down On behalf of all of us, keep toning it down... And Macomb got a lot more than 5-7" with GHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Secondly, in 2011, I think that was the event with like 5 to 7 inches or something? It's been a few years. 16-20" of snow in the Macomb area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Op NAM is actually running colder than the mean. The skew is some super warm "other" outliers. Don't really pay it (SREF) much mind at that range anyways. Hoosier approved. lol'd when I saw the NAM. Within the realm of possibility and there are hints of a relative minimum on some other models even if location varies. That being said, not worth getting too worried yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 16-20" of snow in the Macomb area. On behalf of all of us, keep toning it down... And Macomb got a lot more than 5-7" with GHD 16-20" of snow in the Macomb area. To be fair, I was north of here at the time, I go to school down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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