JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Man, if ever the GFS was going to get a storm right I hope it's with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 wxbell is such a trash product Joe is right actually, other than the snow maps which we denounced as being crap everything else matches with free products but is in a much better quality and you have the ability to center the maps on many locations across the world instead of a default North America view. Trust me I am a cheapskate on weather products and I bought into their model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Embarrassing to see that from a met. Everybody and their mother should know by now that those maps have problems dealing with mixed precip which there will be plenty of. Very embarrasing, now everybody in Louisville is expecting a foot or more of snow. I'd love to see that map verify, but I know that's probably not going to happen. This is most likely going to be a freezing rain event as most overunning systems are in this type of setup around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z a tick south. More in line with the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z a tick south. More in line with the Euro... An absolute burying for us in CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yikes. The 18Z GFS has close to 1.50 inches of precip here in Louisville with temperatures ranging from 25-30 degrees throughout most of the event with a lot of that being freezing rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41962-ban-weatherbell-snow-maps/page-2? weenie maps by weenies for weenies It has been made clear long ago that the snow maps are nonsense, so I don't see your point. Oh, and csnavywx needs to post more...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm wagons north as well. It's all in the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yikes. The 18Z GFS has close to 1.50 inches of precip here in Louisville with temperatures ranging from 25-30 degrees throughout most of the event with a lot of that being freezing rain or sleet. Disaster, someone is definitely getting an ice storm with this storm and it isn't going to be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 uh, what? Over a foot of snow on the GFS for CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not a chance. Um, ok, whatever you say, chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not a chance. Because of QPF or mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Um, ok, whatever you say, chief. Wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The globals are garbage with this type of setup and the GFS is no stranger to that. It is to far south intially and frankly, if the wave doesn't become more energized, I don't see the amounts and rates being high enough to make a foot. But if that happens, it will likely be further north.........................double whammy. Even if your nonsense was correct for the first time this winter, all I said was that the GFS showed a burying for CMH. I never said it was correct, I just reported what it showed like everyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Um, ok, whatever you say, chief. Always go with the opposite of what he says. MO to OH looks good...Maybe not 12", but prime for the best totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Even if your non-sense was correct for the first time this winter, all I said was that the GFS showed a burying for CMH. I never said it was correct, I just reported what it showed like everyone else does. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Even if your non-sense was correct for the first time this winter, all I said was that the GFS showed a burying for CMH. I never said it was correct, I just reported what it showed like everyone else does. lol "non-sense" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Everybody needs to take a deep breath and calm down. But who the hell is driving this "wagon" if a low from Memphis moving to N. Carolina/Virginia is north? P.S Jay is only stating what the modeling is showing as possible which we all do... We all know the system isn't sampled and probably won't verify the extremes, but he never said he's preaching gospel. Cut him some slack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol "non-sense" Yes, I accidentally misspelled it, how mortifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think I am going to start a rumor on Facebook that the Peoria area is going to get 2 feet of snow lol. Before I post it I may run to Walmart, buy all the milk and then sell it 4x the amount I paid for it I really am thinking that I am going to be on the far northern edge of the heaviest band somewhere in the 4-7 inch range with locally higher amounts near 8-10 inches just north of I-70 for Illinois. Should be an icy mess south of I-70 especially along I-64 and points south for Southern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Lol.. This is what you guys from Ohio and Kentucky get for trying to post in the main storm thread. Now be good posters and get back where you belong. All hail wagons north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Always go with the opposite of what he says. MO to OH looks good...Maybe not 12", but prime for the best totals. yep, locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Congrats to the LAF/CMH crew!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Skilling is wagons north Interestingly, the latest GFS, ECMWF, Can & Navy model runs take Sun system south.There are contradictory indications from models for Sunday---NOT an unusual situation at this distance ahead of the event. Model jet stream structure forecast suggests sending snow south may be the wrong forecast solution. We're forecast to be under the right-rear entrance region of a jet stream wind max--a region in which air is lifted and cooled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Congrats to the LAF/CMH crew!!!Seems silly for congrats this early. Not expecting any drastic shifts but you never know. Earlier in the winter we saw the euro waffle a bit but lately its been more consistent. That being said its waffled with this storm the last 4 runs so I think some changes, maybe substantial is possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Seems silly for congrats this early. Not expecting any drastic shifts but you never know. Earlier in the winter we saw the euro waffle a bit but lately its been more consistent. That being said its waffled with this storm the last 4 runs so I think some changes, maybe substantial is possible... Unless the models are completely mishandling the northern stream, there's no way we're going to get the piece of energy entering the west coast to cut into all of that confluence and amplify enough to give us the bigger snows. I haven't written off the nuisance snow threat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Skilling is wagons north Intere[/size]stingly, the latest GFS, ECMWF, Can & Navy model runs take Sun system south. There are contradictory indications from models for Sunday---NOT an unusual situation at this distance ahead of the event. Model jet stream structure forecast suggests sending snow south may be the wrong forecast solution. We're forecast to be under the right-rear entrance region of a jet stream wind max--a region in which air is lifted and cooled[/size] Not sure if its posted yet, but felt that was also the change in LOT's PM AFD vs. prior: THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS HUNG UP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE AREA WILL ALSO BECOME ORIENTED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET DURING THIS TIME...LIKELY SUPPORTING DEEP ASCENT THROUGH THE DGZ. MODEL BUFFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER HIGH RATIO SNOW... This was a change from prior assessments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Today's recap (so you don't have to read pages) - Alek punted (shocker?) - Someone called this wave a cornfield storm - Everyone complained of a southward shift - Some dude went hardcore weenie and posted a lot of smileys and thought there would be a foot of snow or more - Some site called forecast.io popped up and changed snow totals for Detroit 3 times today - WXBell got called a weenie site with a lot of weenies and weenie related content - The above point about WXBell was then refuted - Someone misspelled non-sense Other than that, no one really has any grasp on totals...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://forecast.io/#/f/40.4599,-90.6695 Uh...and we're back, ladies and gentlemen. Telling me 11-18 inches. COME ON BABY, CRIPPLE MACOMB!!!!!!! Just as an FYI, when posting links like that in the future, be sure to remove your address... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just as an FYI, when posting links like that in the future, be sure to remove your address... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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