OHweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sort of aggravating that such a subtle difference with the shortwave trying to move into the Lakes Sunday night will make potentially a large difference with where the southern storm tracks. The GFS been consistent with not crushing everything to the SE while the Euro and CMC kind of waffle. There's no real -NAO and some higher than normal heights over the eastern US so if that PV gets out of the way (which I think it may given the lack of a -NAO) a GFS or even slightly north solution isn't impossible. For CLE that may be the difference between a 4" or so event and possibly up to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Last 11 GFS 180 hour snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Last 11 GFS 180 hour snow totals Time to windshield wipe back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 nice gif, south trend obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 nice gif, south trend obvious Yeah but besides today's 6z run, the bleeding stopped about halfway through. It's shown 6" here every run on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 interesting look to the SREF plumes at ORD, massive cluster <1", mean of 3.2 with a fan spread up to 8" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 First call, 1-2" for here, 3-5" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So in the what can go wrong camp, the 2 scenarios that I'm thinking about are 1) we get missed north initially and then the main storm misses or skirts south and 2) things shift north and we're sweating precip type. I think either one of these has about an equal chance of happening but concerns aside, I don't hate where I'm sitting right now. 12z Euro ENSM match the op. #1 looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 what a waste of a quality thermal gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 what a waste of a quality thermal gradient 40 degree gradient at 850mb from CDS to the KS/NE border, haven't seen that since GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 40 degree gradient at 850mb from CDS to the KS/NE border, haven't seen that since GHD. yep, easily the best we've seen all winter. pisser of a waste 18z NAM took a step in the right direction for C. IL into IN...should be a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 4 inches here on the NAM. That'd be good enough to break the 70" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just to prove how that forecast.io page is a bit suspect, it just changed from 2-4" Saturday and 1" Sunday to 2-4" Saturday and 9-13" Sunday for Detroit. Yep. It's showing some crazy stuff from the SREF for that time frame. Report it to the developers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 4 inches here on the NAM. That'd be good enough to break the 70" mark. all with saturday night, final piece is a total miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yep, easily the best we've seen all winter. pisser of a waste 18z NAM took a step in the right direction for C. IL into IN...should be a good hit Lots and lots of pingers. Interestingly, 15z SREF is a super duper torch for IND. Rain the favored p-type. Must be have jacked solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Lots and lots of pingers. Interestingly, 15z SREF is a super duper torch for IND. Rain the favored p-type. Must be have jacked solutions. yeah, they're real weird, MKE higher than ORD, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Seems like the 2nd wave (sat/sun) is farther north on the SREF hence why MKE and here have higher totals than ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yeah, they're real weird, MKE higher than ORD, etc MKE probably does better than ORD with the first piece? These multi-wave scenarios are kinda annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 MKE probably does better than ORD with the first piece? These multi-wave scenarios are kinda annoying. yep, definite miss N & S option on the table, either way the NAM/SREF is in catch up mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All that being said, highest probabilities...if you want to call it that...for 8"+ and 12"+ run from STL through LAF at 87 hours. Multiple pieces, multiple whacky models FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Heard the EURO ensemble mean was north of the OP fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So which way will the wagons be heading ?? By the above maps I'm thinking north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ugh, this is a well known TV met who grew up in the area, and thought it would be a fantastic idea to show the EURO snowfall map on twitter. Yes, I've already received multiple text messages, and even a phone call panicking about the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 wxbell is such a trash product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 wxbell is such a trash product Excluding the snow maps...Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 sounds like LOT is ignoring the ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Excluding the snow maps...Not really. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41962-ban-weatherbell-snow-maps/page-2? weenie maps by weenies for weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I predict the 3rd storm "wagons" north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is south with the 3rd wave, but still brings 6+ into the ORD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ugh, this is a well known TV met who grew up in the area, and thought it would be a fantastic idea to show the EURO snowfall map on twitter. Yes, I've already received multiple text messages, and even a phone call panicking about the situation. Embarrassing to see that from a met. Everybody and their mother should know by now that those maps have problems dealing with mixed precip which there will be plenty of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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