Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That kid needs to really chill and dial it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Interesting forecast soundings across the area...there's a double DGZ being progged...one in the low levels and another in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Interesting forecast soundings across the area...there's a double DGZ being progged...one in the low levels and another in the mid levels. Yep GFS has been showing that for days with a warm layer below the DGZ around 700-800mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Still waiting and seeing....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Anybody else notice the consistecy the models are showing for a major ice storm to hit Kentucky? Amazing. I remember the models in 2009 did the same thing. I was a sophomore in college and it showed an insane amount of ice for five or six consecutive days on the models. This is almost a repeat. I can only hope that we end up with more sleet than ice. Don't want to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sorry man, I've just been really pumped for all this. Meteorology's something I really have been into all my life, and I've always wanted to see a huge snowstorm like that. My bad, dialing it back. Great. Now Chistorm is going back to his old personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS flying solo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro looks substantially south to me with the precipitation shield... a bit too much. 15 inches in northern Kentucky is not likely as they will see sleet and freezing rain. If we're going to see numbers like that, I'd expect it north of the river at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Great. Now Chistorm is going back to his old personality. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro looks substantially south to me with the precipitation shield... a bit too much. 15 inches in northern Kentucky is not likely as they will see sleet and freezing rain. If we're going to see numbers like that, I'd expect it north of the river at least... 8-10 in cmh. Wayyy colder. Sig shift south congrats cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS flying solo LOT has been unimpressed in a season where they have been pretty good. I trust thier thoughts on this event. Downplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro looks substantially south to me with the precipitation shield... a bit too much. 15 inches in northern Kentucky is not likely as they will see sleet and freezing rain. If we're going to see numbers like that, I'd expect it north of the river at least... That got to be freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The 2009 ice storm had a run 60-72 hours out with parts of KY getting 30 inches of snow. We all know that didn't happen. Although, I will say it looks like I need to be ready for ice Sunday at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't like seeing the Euro waffle so much. With the Feb 4th storm it was dead bang on run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Tim's go to model, the JMA, still looks like a huge hit. Even big for Chicago and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Who really knows at this stage, the main wave is still way out in the Pacific and wont be sampled till Saturday afternoon when it comes ashore CA/Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What? Just busting your balls. All in fun. I thought you might have been posting as Ryan. Sorry for the OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 PV lobe dropping into the Great Lakes on the ECMWF just crushes this thing. I'm sure that feature is modeled well...(sarcasm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That got to be freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The 2009 ice storm had a run 60-72 hours out with parts of KY getting 30 inches of snow. We all know that didn't happen. Although, I will say it looks like I need to be ready for ice Sunday at this point. Ya, I agree. Buckle down and get gas for your generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Tim's go to model, the JMA, still looks like a huge hit. Even big for Chicago and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 PV lobe dropping into the Great Lakes on the ECMWF just crushes this thing. I'm sure that feature is modeled well...(sarcasm). I forget which storm it was back in January, but the Euro did the same thing then, and was dead wrong. At this point with that storm we were congratulating Ohio and by the time the storm hit, you and I were cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Tim's go to model, the JMA, still looks like a huge hit. Even big for Chicago and Detroit. Might need to lean on Tim's #1 guy.. Saying the biggest totals will be from LAF and north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I forget which storm it was back in January, but the Euro did the same thing then, and was dead wrong. At this point with that storm we were congratulating Ohio and by the time the storm hit, you and I were cashing in. Euro has been performing much better than the garbage it was churning out back in January but I guess we're back in a similar setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro has been performing much better than the garbage it was churning out back in January but I guess we're back in a similar setup Yeah, this is similar to January when it was failing hard. More than likely Euro is overdoing the strength of the troughing in Canada, which tends to happen pretty regularly now. Not saying to discount the Euro completely as there are a lot of moving parts but the strength of the polar vortex is going to dictate how far north this system can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You can poke around http://forecast.io/raw/ to figure the sources they use out. They've got a pretty accurate precip modeler for short term stuff and I believe their algorithm tries to correct locally for whatever model has been most accurate lately. It looks like it's averaging out the GFS, the Canadian, and the Navy's model with a preference given to the GFS for the long range at the moment. Whatever averages they are using it has been creeping up all day to an lol worthy 15-23 inches of snow over 2 days for CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Graphics Skilling just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The general thought this winter has been that the GFS has modeled the northern stream better overall than the ECMWF, so we'll see if that applies here. Also as mentioned by others, with the southern stream feature not coming ashore til Saturday, there's likely to be higher than normal uncertainty until pretty late in the game. My overall take is that the GFS has been somewhat more consistent so far in handling this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like now even more of the 12z GFS ensembles, probably about 75-80% of them show .50" liquid here with about 5 of them getting .75" liquid up to I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The UKMET looks like it's in the northern camp along with the JMA. Not what you would call major models (especially JMA) but the GFS at least has some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just to prove how that forecast.io page is a bit suspect, it just changed from 2-4" Saturday and 1" Sunday to 2-4" Saturday and 9-13" Sunday for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just to prove how that forecast.io page is a bit suspect, it just changed from 2-4" Saturday and 1" Sunday to 2-4" Saturday and 9-13" Sunday for Detroit. WxUnderground is doing the same thing.. Today's number's are up to 12-20'' from Sat night - Sun night LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.