ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://forecast.io/#/f/40.4599,-90.6695 Uh...and we're back, ladies and gentlemen. Telling me 11-18 inches. COME ON BABY, CRIPPLE MACOMB!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT.HOWEVER...WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED IS A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATESNOW EVENT.SUNDAY ON...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOCHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND PIECE OFENERGY MAKING UP THE STORM SYSTEM. FOR SOME AREAS THE SNOW WILLLIKELY BE NEAR CONTINUOUS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAYNIGHT. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE SNOW BETWEEN THE TWOPIECES OF ENERGY. Manwhile, Weather.gov takes a big old *honk* on my hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z GGEM kind of a grazer for here. IND and CMH do well with the first piece, then the second is focused farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://forecast.io/#/f/40.4599,-90.6695 Uh...and we're back, ladies and gentlemen. Telling me 11-18 inches. COME ON BABY, CRIPPLE MACOMB!!!!!!! Never seen that site...who is that/what is that based off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z GGEM kind of a grazer for here. IND and CMH do well with the first piece, then the second is focused farther south. It was a step up from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It was a step up from the 00z run. In some respects, yes. Not as generous as the GFS, but still looks like 6" or so for us...going off the b/w maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://forecast.io/#/f/40.4599,-90.6695 Uh...and we're back, ladies and gentlemen. Telling me 11-18 inches. COME ON BABY, CRIPPLE MACOMB!!!!!!! On a scale of 1 to , where are we at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z vs 6z GFS difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well, firstly @Hoosier I'm not actually sure. Found it randomly online so it could be unreliable. @huronicane This storm's got me feeling full-on I've never seen a full-on 1-foot storm and I'd really love to. But watch the models go on my hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z vs 6z GFS difference 90hr vort.gif gfsUS_500_avort_096.gif One of the things that's noticeable is less northern stream influence on the 12z, i.e. more room to creep north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 One of the things that's noticeable is less northern stream influence on the 12z, i.e. more room to creep north. I can live with a northern "creep" as long as it's just a little bit. I want RIGHT IN THE BULLSEYE of this sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 One of the things that's noticeable is less northern stream influence on the 12z, i.e. more room to creep north. Exactly. Nice little shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Exactly. Nice little shift How far? I'm starting to get a little queasy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The last few posts literally made me laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So in the what can go wrong camp, the 2 scenarios that I'm thinking about are 1) we get missed north initially and then the main storm misses or skirts south and 2) things shift north and we're sweating precip type. I think either one of these has about an equal chance of happening but concerns aside, I don't hate where I'm sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So in the what can go wrong camp, the 2 scenarios that I'm thinking about are 1) we get missed north initially and then the main storm misses or skirts south and 2) things shift north and we're sweating precip type. I think either one of these has about an equal chance of happening but concerns aside, I don't hate where I'm sitting right now. A lot of confluence across the Great Lakes...thinking scenario #1 has a much better chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 looks like 3 or 4 12z GEFS are north of the OP with the main band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Never seen that site...who is that/what is that based off of? You can poke around http://forecast.io/raw/ to figure the sources they use out. They've got a pretty accurate precip modeler for short term stuff and I believe their algorithm tries to correct locally for whatever model has been most accurate lately. It looks like it's averaging out the GFS, the Canadian, and the Navy's model with a preference given to the GFS for the long range at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The last few posts literally made me laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 looks like 3 or 4 12z GEFS are north of the OP with the main band I'd actually argue that only 3 or 4 are south especially with the precipitation on the northern fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd actually argue that only 3 or 4 are south especially with the precipitation on the northern fringes. I'm not trying to make a point Stebo, all i'm saying is that 3 or 4 are noticeably north, a couple are more or less in line with the OP, and 3 or 4 are south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd actually argue that only 3 or 4 are south especially with the precipitation on the northern fringes. Mr. Perfect was AWESOME. Anyway, forecast.io's got me up to 12-18. 3-6 Saturday night, 8-12 Sunday, and maybe even an inch Monday. This is killing me!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 time to pump the brakes^ custom final call, 5.9" for Macomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 time to pump the brakes^ custom final call, 5.9" for Macomb NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! DON'T SAY THAT!!! Edit: My original call was 4-8. It's always 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! DON'T SAY THAT!!! It is probably best if you dial it back... We don't need over the top weenies in a storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It is probably best if you dial it back... We don't need over the top weenies in a storm thread. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 time to pump the brakes^ custom final call, 5.9" for Macomb Since you do Custom work what about MBY? lol Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It is probably best if you dial it back... We don't need over the top weenies in a storm thread. Sorry man, I've just been really pumped for all this. Meteorology's something I really have been into all my life, and I've always wanted to see a huge snowstorm like that. My bad, dialing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 time to pump the brakes^ custom final call, 5.9" for Macomb seriously? you couldn't give the kid a tenth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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