Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,916
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    alia9
    Newest Member
    alia9
    Joined

February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 992
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 2/25/2014 at 7:42 AM, IthielZ said:

I feel pretty good too considering this winter all someone has to do is sneeze at a high enough altitude and we get significant snow.

:lmao:  And with a crusty foot of snow already on the ground..it would be scenes that no one alive in this region has EVER seen in March. Only happened one other time, March 1900, with 26" snow depth (Detroits record depth). Not putting the cart before the horse though...consensus is growing, but this is still in model land...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 1:00 PM, KokomoWX said:

Indy would be a mess looking at the 6z GFS.  Cobb data shows 5" snow, 1.4" of sleet, and 1/2" of ice.  On the other hand, just to my north at Grissom, no ice, 1/3" of sleet and 17" of snow!  :snowing:

 

14.7", with some taint, for LAF. Sign me up. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of surprised at Tracy Butler's forecast for this week, showing snow for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Last forecast I had seen, showed "some snow" for Saturday. 

 

Looks like GFS keeps a bulk of the precip south, but the long duration could be good for at least 6" across N IL. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 2:44 PM, TimChgo9 said:

Kind of surprised at Tracy Butler's forecast for this week, showing snow for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Last forecast I had seen, showed "some snow" for Saturday. 

 

Looks like GFS keeps a bulk of the precip south, but the long duration could be good for at least 6" across N IL. 

 

You really need to start looking at the models you quote.

 

pwrq.gif

 

That TOTALLY keeps the bulk precip south.   :facepalm:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 3:30 PM, MidwestChaser said:

You really need to start looking at the models you quote.

 

pwrq.gif

 

That TOTALLY keeps the bulk precip south.   :facepalm:

 

Tim is probably looking at the QPF maps and leaving it at that. Doing that though will give you a false notion that the snow amounts are lower when in fact this will be a decent ratio event which is why we are seeing widespread 12"+ amounts being pumped out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 3:39 PM, A-L-E-K said:

15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland

 

60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day

 

winter 2013/2014, never forget

 

 I don't even know if 12/26/09 had this deep of a DGZ, even if it's borderline in that layer around 750mb

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 3:39 PM, A-L-E-K said:

15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland

 

60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day

 

winter 2013/2014, never forget

 

 

I never get excited about ratios for that reason. I care about QPF and that's it... In the end the ratio always ends up being around 8:1 after settling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 3:49 PM, Stebo said:

Tim is probably looking at the QPF maps and leaving it at that. Doing that though will give you a false notion that the snow amounts are lower when in fact this will be a decent ratio event which is why we are seeing widespread 12"+ amounts being pumped out.

 

6z GFS wants to spit out almost 1" of QPF at ORD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 3:39 PM, A-L-E-K said:

15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland

60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day

winter 2013/2014, never forget

Actually pixie dust snow doesn't have a high fluff/settle factor so 12" would settle into about 9 after 2 days or so.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 4:24 PM, A-L-E-K said:

a much lamer solution than 6z and similar to more of the GEFS members

Based on winter trends...we will probably see a January 1-5 repeat. Only makes sense, been snowless here in excess of seven days. Scratch that, snowed on the back end of the rainstorm last week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/25/2014 at 3:49 PM, Stebo said:

Tim is probably looking at the QPF maps and leaving it at that. Doing that though will give you a false notion that the snow amounts are lower when in fact this will be a decent ratio event which is why we are seeing widespread 12"+ amounts being pumped out.

Yeah, that's what I am looking at is the QPF.  And, the heaviest QPF is south.  N IL stays with lower QPF,  but given the duration of the event, we stand to gain, and I did say  "at least 6".  Could we stand to get more? I am sure a 4"-12" range is a safe bet at this point.

 

So, I apologize for my apparently mis-informed post. .  I'll shut up now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...