Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS has been very consistent with respect to showing a solid W-E hit across the region. The Euro is starting to latch onto the idea as well. However the GGEM shows what could potentially happen if the polar vortex is too strong, as it suppresses the storm south and is weak too. It all depends upon the polar vortex location and strength as to how far north this can end up for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Atta boy. My favorite thread starter. 18z GFS was a several day spread the wealth beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I knew boring wouldnt last long lol. I guess its a nice thing that Im more worried about suppression that mixing issues in March A little bit of fresh snow would do wonders for the current deep but icy/crusty snowpack. Looks like someone in this forum may get a nice snowstorm out of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is what I posted in the med/long range thread. I don't see any reason to change the outlook at this time. At this time of the year the cold sinks to far south on the GGEM vs climo. "I've been watching the GGEM and GFS operational vs their ensemble mean forecast. As we approach the 8-10 day period, their ensemble means show a southeastern ridge that is stronger than the operational runs. The operational GFS up to the 23/0z run has been to slow to break down the ridge giving us up here a good snowfall. The GGEM operational has been to fast to break down the ridge thus taking the storm track well to the south of this subforum. The 23/0z run of the GFS now shows a big hit over the IA area, and I think that is close to reality. After all, when we have had a cold dome of air over us this winter the track has favored ORD, LAF etc. I don't think it will be any different this time around." I think this is way to far south... Edit this is a hot link and will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Atta boy. My favorite thread starter. 18z GFS was a several day spread the wealth beauty. 4 18z gfs ensembles had 1+ qpf for Chicago. 4 had .25-.5 and 4 had .1-.25 that's not including the stuff on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Since Chicago storm started this it will trend nw and be a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 miss south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 With the Euro acting like it wants to play ball with the GFS, Joe as the thread starter, and Alek zzzzzzzzzzzzing the pattern, this could be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Appears ice could also be in play and an issue for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 With the Euro acting like it wants to play ball with the GFS, Joe as the thread starter, and Alek zzzzzzzzzzzzing the pattern, this could be epic. Lock of the century, everyone get their shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Lock of the century, everyone get their shovels ready. o/u: 1.5 ft for ord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system With this being a prolonged potential, someone is going to get a lot of snow, northern fringes will certainly have some good ratios too considering how cold it could be. It really looks like a good share the wealth type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'm up for one last hooray. That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'm up for one last hooray. That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt. We don't need this to go negative tilt, if that happens it will miss most of us to the northwest, this is more of a flat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We don't need this to go negative tilt, if that happens it will miss most of us to the northwest, this is more of a flat wave. this, flat wave just north of baroclinic zone, or along it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gotcha - Was thinking a flat wave wouldn't be much better than a glorified frontal passage. Last two winters that's what we didn't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gotcha - Was thinking a flat wave wouldn't be much better than a glorified frontal passage. Have you looked at the maps? I mean maybe you should before assuming something incorrect... It is a west to east moving wave, it isn't a stretched vort along a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system this storm will cause powerball to raise his winter grade to an A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Congrats Chicago and south, LAF will probably get blitzed. I'll hold onto the last thread that is the 18z GFS Ensembles before these next several runs dash those last hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Have you looked at the maps? I mean maybe you should before assuming something incorrect... It is a west to east moving wave, it isn't a stretched vort along a front. I've looked at them, but I didn't see it as a weak wave really. At least from a precipitation perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I've looked at them, but I didn't see it as a weak wave really. At least from a precipitation perspective. It isn't a weak wave either... A decent wave can be flat as well, think of a bowling ball setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like a good potential for someone in the Midwest. I might have jury duty next week...I wonder if not wanting to miss a snowstorm would be a valid excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hour 144 @ 500 mb notice the vorticity over the area. Than look at the baro zone at 700mb Now look at the strong diffluence at the 850mb level. looks like a very strong mid level disturbance to me, as a matter of fact, the models may be under doing the reaction at the surface to a certain degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yes, we don't need a wave to go super negative tilt. This is a series of waves rippling through the flow over the baroclinic zone with WAA up and over it to start which could produce several E-W bands of high ratio snows. Then the last one could have a little more potential as it ejects out feeding off the thermal gradient as it moves ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Congrats Chicago and south, LAF will probably get blitzed. I'll hold onto the last thread that is the 18z GFS Ensembles before these next several runs dash those last hopes. This is getting annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is getting annoying. Especially when the GFS showed 6+ for his area last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 taking a closer look at that area of difluence over Il and IN, the atmosphere is out of balance as the winds are separating over that area, in order for the atmosphere to remain in balance it has to replace that air from some where and that comes from the surface. I wished the COD site had the 925mb maps and the Vertical Velocities, as I would suspect they would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 If this was a different year, I would assume this storm would miss Toledo or disappear. This year it feels like everything hits us, even storms 7 days out. As long as we get half an inch to break the seasonal record I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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