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February 25th-26th snow threat disco and obs


attml

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I'm sorry to offend anyone, but they are the worst. It's really bad.

 

CWG from an hour ago:

 

"Some "conversational" or "mood" snow has developed inside Beltway. Shouldn't stick much."

 

this might beat LWX's twitter update from either 4:57 or 2 hours ago

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No of

 

CWG from an hour ago:

 

"Some "conversational" or "mood" snow has developed inside Beltway. Shouldn't stick much."

 

this might beat LWX's twitter update from either 4:57 or 2 hours ago

 

no offense to Matt Rogers who is a talented met, but all he really cares about is if it is 75 and sunny...this happened to CWG late in the season last year....they stopped caring much, because they wanted it to be 20 degrees above normal everyday

 

I am guessing LWX is the same...just indifference

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Hate to continue the LWX ribbing, but even ignoring the fact that it appears they ignored short range guidance last night, they actually downgraded as things became even more obvious this morning. My zone fcst from 3:30 had 40% POPS. Then at 6:30, as radar clearly showed the entire area would see a few hours of light snow, they downgraded to "scattered flurries this morning." Now, at 9:30, when places are reporting accumulation and we could conceivably hit an inch, they updated to "snow likely...little or no accumulation."

Forgetting this event and going back to Sunday nights clearly all rain event, my zone fcst read "snow accumulation around an inch likely."

...WTF? I mean, this is basic nowcasting stuff...pull up a radar, or simpler yet, look out the window. Really odd stuff from LWX.

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No of

 

 

no offense to Matt Rogers who is a talented met, but all he really cares about is if it is 75 and sunny...this happened to CWG late in the season last year....they stopped caring much, because they wanted it to be 20 degrees above normal everyday

 

I am guessing LWX is the same...just indifference

 

yeah little surprise events are fun for picking on anyone -- i've given up being disappointed with LWX it's just expected at this point

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Eh, people often play the odds in borderline anti-climo events. Not sure anyone was calling for a DC area bullseye with this.

 

I'm willing to cut them some slack.  they had snow in the forecast.  Being able to pinpoint exactly who would see a bit more is always a roll of the dice.

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yeah little surprise events are fun for picking on anyone -- i've given up being disappointed with LWX it's just expected at this point

 

it's not even that big of a surprise...models started to hone in 36 hours ago and all showed measurable in the 0.05" range..not sure why "flurries".  It was clear we would get at least some steady light snow...and the short range guidance confirmed that last night...that we would see a few hours of snow....in the end, snow really isnt a big deal, so I kind of like that they arent making a big deal out of it

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i've given up being disappointed with LWX it's just expected at this point

The thing is...it's not even ignoring models or something. It's ignoring radar/your eyes. "Sctd flurries" at 6:30 when radar was lighting up?

Maybe the shades are down on the windows at LWX or something because the update 15 minutes ago is even more head-scratching.

Again, I have all the respect in the world for NWS mets, and I consider them the best of the best. But this is some incompetent nowcasting, for sure.

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