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February 25th-26th snow threat disco and obs


attml

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Jackpot! OK , it's only the nickel slots, but it's still a jackpot.

Also lol at the string of lows to our northeast. Looks like a bunch if geese flying in formation.

MDstorm

Amazing the models are showing 1-2" and nobody even cares. During the last 3 winters this thread would be 10 pages long.

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I care but it's a nowcast event. Too easy to bust with this setup to get invested. If we can get a couple hours of decent rates then this thread will bloom.

45 hours is a long time to gather over .10" liquid.

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RAP2 is all in for the Parkton to Winchester deck pic bonanza. Mostly light probably generally non accumulating snow for me.

 

post-1615-0-82467100-1393301523_thumb.pn

 

It would be interesting just to get snow from both batches.. they are combined about the least likely one-two punch to get to work out well around here.  #1314magic

 

Though, at the same time, it's probably worth keeping in mind if/when Wed looks very little like it did on the runs people were excited about that maybe half an ounce less mid-long range model guidance obs might be good for everyone.

 

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RAP2 is all in for the Parkton to Winchester deck pic bonanza. Mostly light probably generally non accumulating snow for me.

 

attachicon.gifrap_ref_ecentus_14.png

 

It would be interesting just to get snow from both batches.. they are combined about the least likely one-two punch to get to work out well around here.  #1314magic

 

Though, at the same time, it's probably worth keeping in mind if/when Wed looks very little like it did on the runs people were excited about that maybe half an ounce less mid-long range model guidance obs might be good for everyone.

 

it never really looked good verbatim...there were maybe 1 or 2 runs that gave us 0.2", but otherwise it looks pretty similar to what the models had been showing off and on for a week..which was never very impressive....there was some, now lost, hope on my part that it could materialize into a 2-4".....that clearly isn't going to happen.....I agree with your point about models of course, but the Wednesday event is not the best example of why we should be cautious as it never looked good..The models handled it pretty well.....12/10 and particularly 1/2 and 1/21 are the best cautionary tales we have this year....especially 1/2, which came back at the end, but the euro showed that monster solution pretty close to the event and then lost it....1/21, you and Wes were all over it as being BS when the Euro showed 0.05" the day before the event....It's funny..we swing like pendulums, but even 24 hours before an event, we don't really know the final solution...I remember on New Years day most of us threw in the towel once the euro came back to reality....it wasn't a big event, but the collective consensus was that we would get 1" or less

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it never really looked good verbatim...there were maybe 1 or 2 runs that gave us 0.2", but otherwise it looks pretty similar to what the models had been showing off and on for a week..which was never very impressive....there was some, now lost, hope on my part that it could materialize into a 2-4".....that clearly isn't going to happen.....I agree with your point about models of course, but the Wednesday event is not the best example of why we should be cautious as it never looked good..The models handled it pretty well.....12/10 and particularly 1/2 and 1/21 are the best cautionary tales we have this year....especially 1/2, which came back at the end, but the euro showed that monster solution pretty close to the event and then lost it....1/21, you and Wes were all over it as being BS when the Euro showed 0.05" the day before the event....It's funny..we swing like pendulums, but even 24 hours before an event, we don't really know the final solution...I remember on New Years day most of us threw in the towel once the euro came back to reality....it wasn't a big event, but the collective consensus was that we would get 1" or less

yeah you're probably right. i didn't really track wed until like 3 days ago.. perhaps near the peak of its intrigue.. since then it's flattened back out again particularly on the gfs which i guess i shouldn't favor anyway.

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yeah you're probably right. i didn't really track wed until like 3 days ago.. perhaps near the peak of its intrigue.. since then it's flattened back out again particularly on the gfs which i guess i shouldn't favor anyway.

 

you saw it for what it was...garbage :(.....maybe we can get a stats padder...I just need 0.2" since I round ;)

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