DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It wouldn't surprise me to kinda suck with this one. We seem to have a knack for doing ok with sneaky events but then weaking out with the more advertised events. We might have used up our lucky chips today. Or atmospheric memory and a winning season prevails. My bar Is another clean inch. Despite the lack of scientific prevalence in that theory, its one I share with you. It just always seems that way. One would think this could deliver 2-4" in spots, but I'm with you, 1"+ makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hi-res is pretty weak sauce...still probably good for 1" in city, 2" North and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 34 DCA at 9pm... good sign IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hi-res is pretty weak sauce...still probably good for 1" in city, 2" North and West HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 34 DCA at 9pm... good sign IMO 28 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm willing it south for the DC crowd. You can have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm willing it south for the DC crowd. You can have it I'm willing it to the me, me, me crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm willing it south for the DC crowd. You can have it Just will it a bit south near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z RGEM is prob just over 0.1 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z RGEM is prob just over 0.1 QPF it's falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 it's falling apart Yeah just hope for an inch. The reverse bust of today that Bob and I feared looks to be starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 1-2 was always the sane expectation... This morning was a nice treat, let's be happy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Radar trends indicate a band might set up right across Richmond. However much of the state will get hit tonight and tomorrow morning. You can bet I will be GLUED to that radarscope all night long. Radar trends indicate snow coverage is increasing with time. Northern Virginia and DC are right on track for 1-2 inches of snow. No need to update headlines at this time Another plus is that the dewpoints are fairly close to the ambient dry bulb temps. We wont waste much snow on moistening up this column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 it's falling apart Nah... I think 1-2 was always the correct choice... true LWX could be covering after the mistake today... but lets see how it plays out later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Eh, models are consistent with the duration. Today's win came from unexpected rates and ratios. Precip looks more widespread tomorrow. Rates and winners tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 0-3 is my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hey guys, weather question. What are the physical processes that cause a precip forecast like the NAM I saw earlier. Why does the precip seem to skip the 81 corridor and develop east? Just curious as it seems to happen a couple times each winter. BTW congrats on the snow today. It didn't do much out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Nah... I think 1-2 was always the correct choice... true LWX could be covering after the mistake today... but lets see how it plays out later tonight 0z GFS shows like 0.09?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hey guys, weather question. What are the physical processes that cause a precip forecast like the NAM I saw earlier. Why does the precip seem to skip the 81 corridor and develop east? Just curious as it seems to happen a couple times each winter. BTW congrats on the snow today. It didn't do much out here downsloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 0z GFS shows like 0.09?.. looks right to me... RGEM/NAM/GFS ~0.1" QPF... 1", as you would say, seems doable... perhaps 2" if someone gets lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I didn't pay much attention last night for today's event. About the same depiction leading in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The NCEP 1.33 km NAM fire weather nest tonight was run over the DC area. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ The 1 km reflectivity loop is kinda interesting. It starts as a swath of light precip that overspreads the entire area and then breaks into some WNW-ESE oriented heavier bands with gaps of lighter precip in between. Each of the bands generates over 0.1" of liquid; in areas that don't get under one of the bands it's generally just under 0.1". The HRRR runs this evening also suggest a banded structure, although the RAP/HRRR are little later with the timing of the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 An area of returns has formed over northern Virginia and is developing. It is similar to what I observed last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The NCEP 1.33 km NAM fire weather nest tonight was run over the DC area. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ The 1 km reflectivity loop is kinda interesting. It starts as a swath of light precip that overspreads the entire area and then breaks into some WNW-ESE oriented heavier bands with gaps of lighter precip in between. Each of the bands generates over 0.1" of liquid; in areas that don't get under one of the bands it's generally just under 0.1". The HRRR runs this evening also suggest a banded structure, although the RAP/HRRR are little later with the timing of the heavier bands. Cool model-- any comparison to other Hi res for viability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 0.1" qpf events are a pain. Westminster philosophy in play.. hopefully we can broom it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Looks a lot like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pretty awful RAP run coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Cool model-- any comparison to other Hi res for viability? The fire wx nest is very viable if you believe that the parent NAM has a handle on the current synoptics. It's a one-way nest, meaning that the parent model synoptics are feeding into the nest (but the 1.33 km details are not feeding back to the parent). It's basically the same model as the parent but with explicit convection. The evolution of precip can vary significantly from the parent in a convective environment, but it often follows the parent in non-convective events like this; it just resolves the structure within the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pretty awful RAP run coming. looks fine to me.. 3z at least. the models look better liquid wise than they did for this morning. the rest may be nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The fire wx nest is very viable if you believe that the parent NAM has a handle on the current synoptics. It's a one-way nest, meaning that the parent model synoptics are feeding into the nest (but the 1.33 km details are not feeding back to the parent). It's basically the same model as the parent but with explicit convection. The evolution of precip can vary significantly from the parent in a convective environment, but it often follows the parent in non-convective events like this; it just resolves the structure within the precip shield. Thanks for the explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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