jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 Starting to like the 10 day range for something good.Both the GEFS members and the EPS look cold and during this time the NAO is going -.The Euro 0z last night is showing a Miller A.The EPS has the 850's 10- for most of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 On the 11th the Euro today is shows some insane K- 42,TT'S-56,this starts is W parts of the valley then extends east.Severe threat is really starting to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS OZ is so close but i really think its catching on to the Euro,just cant get the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS OZ is so close but i really think its catching on to the Euro,just cant get the phase I think it is safe to say that we have something else to track near the middle of the month; a good snow would be great before we get into severe weather season. I heard a local weather personality commenting yesterday that Atlanta has again had more than double the snowfall this year than Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The 12z Euro is at it again...a nice Apps running bomb with a swath of trailing snow...More anticipation agony for the MidSouth..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The 12z Euro is at it again...a nice Apps running bomb with a swath of trailing snow...More anticipation agony for the MidSouth.....Everyone has given up in the Midsouth- well, at least Memphis and Nashville have. Sent from my SCH-L710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Everyone has given up in the Midsouth- well, at least Memphis and Nashville have. Sent from my SCH-L710 Not a very impressive run from last night into today with the system now being shown in the OV on the Euro.Probably good though for some light snow on the back end and a impressive 200-300mb winds at 130 kts other than that..blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The Mr. Bob storm is back again on the 12z Euro. Crazy how it seems to be only on the 12z run...at least at that strength. Looks like a pretty good upslope event to be driven by the storm's wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Bowling ball low late on the Euro. Have to watch those. Definitely agree that chances are slimming down now to just elevation snows. At this time of year, totally expected and right on time. You know what is interesting the CPC only shows above normal temps on their long range maps....Those maps totally missed what was one of the coldest Januarys on record from this time last year. Absolutely no way that we do not have a month in the long range that won't be colder than normal somewhere in the lower 48(outside of the coming month).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Bowling ball low late on the Euro. Have to watch those. Definitely agree that chances are slimming down now to just elevation snows. At this time of year, totally expected and right on time. You know what is interesting the CPC only shows above normal temps on their long range maps....Those maps totally missed what was one of the coldest Januarys on record from this time last year. Absolutely no way that we do not have a month in the long range that won't be colder than normal somewhere in the lower 48(outside of the coming month).... Agree,climatology we get the best storms in March.I'm not writing this ofF yet but the key is where the boundary sets up for this one IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 As for next winter...reeeeealllly hope this verifies....weak El Nino. Would be like loading the bases with no strikes and no outs w/ the bottom of the order up to bat. And some really cool words that I WILL be using just to impress all of you - whether I know what they mean or not. Think "Catch Me if You Can". I concur. #HybridCoupledModel #MaxPlankInstitutefuerMeteorlogie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 0z Euro was significantly different in the long range. Colder and stormier. Let's see if it holds or if it is just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 0z Euro was significantly different in the long range. Colder and stormier. Let's see if it holds or if it is just a hiccup. Weird looking run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The models have hinted that a more active pattern may be arriving. Looks to me like a window from Thursday to Thursday is opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 that another system for the ten valley mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Wondering about the 12z Euro. This is the monster the 00z showed last night. Keep in mind, March can produce monster snows. Most of the snow records for the entire Valley came in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Wondering about the 12z Euro. This is the monster the 00z showed last night. Keep in mind, March can produce monster snows. Most of the snow records for the entire Valley came in March. The 2 largest snows in Memphis history came in March.... both of them about 18 inches. Fun fact, except it doesn't actually snow in Memphis anymore. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 John, basically same deal again on 12z Euro. Another nice low with snows somewhere in the interior SE. Powerhouse. Typical for this time of year and well within climo. May be something. May be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 yup 00Z and 12Z euro very similar with a storm during the time frame. the GFS has also been playing around with this. I wonder if the board will perk back up or everyone is already on spring break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Real dynamical storm.But i'm not excited about the snow chances.On the teleconnections today the AO is +3 during this time and some of the esm has it at +4. NAO is still positive.Not sure where this cold air is coming from other than the -epo but this is around mid March we are talking about, not Jan.Storm will continue to trend N and this will be a severe threat in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Telling you guys this is gonna be one hell of a severe weather event.Seeing the GFS is throwing the 300 mb winds at 140 kts in middle MS and contines to show this N each run,the Euro is to far S with this and this will continue to trend N.Neither model has a grasp on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Telling you guys this is gonna be one hell of a severe weather event.Seeing the GFS is throwing the 300 mb winds at 140 kts in middle MS and contines to show this N each run,the Euro is to far S with this and this will continue to trend N.Neither model has a grasp on this storm Except the instability is pitiful with the 10˚C H85 isotherm south in the Gulf. Strong upper level winds aren't the only thing needed for a significant severe weather event, and there is nothing at this junction to suggest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Except the instability is pitiful with the 10˚C H85 isotherm south in the Gulf. Strong upper level winds aren't the only thing needed for a significant severe weather event, and there is nothing at this junction to suggest one. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Watch the trend,0Z EURO is showing the tt's at 54 in Arkansas,this will shift towards the Valley.The euro no longer shows a snow threat which i thought would soon wouldnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Watch the trend,0Z EURO is showing the tt's at 54 in Arkansas,this will shift towards the Valley.The euro no longer shows a snow threat which i thought would soon wouldnt What trend? Just because the TTs are high doesn't mean a severe weather threat is likely, I'm still seeing nothing to indicate anything more than a marginal threat (if any at all, which seems more likely at this point). You seem to be cherry-picking indices and making up the meteorology as you go. What is to suggest that the higher indices (if any) will spread into the TN Valley when there is hardly any certainty about what the actual synoptic setup will look like in the first place? LL winds are relatively weak in both cases and there is very little/no instability whatsoever or even a favorable upper level pattern especially with the southern stream shortwave to the south of the region in the first case (48-72 hrs) and the trough is becoming increasingly sheared with time if we are talking about the 168-216 hr period and is also south of the region (not to mention the area will likely be completely socked in with clouds in both cases). The way the latter system develops (168-216 hrs) really does not appear conducive to a widespread severe weather event in any part of the country. In addition, don't forget that suppression has been common recently. Also I'm not sure what that D8-10 composite is supposed to suggest, but you're not going to see severe in the TN Valley with a 500 mb look like that. Please indicate what timeframe you are talking about in your posts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z Euro suggests 3 to 5 inches of snow on west TN around hour 200. Probably a long shot but worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 What trend? Just because the TTs are high doesn't mean a severe weather threat is likely, I'm still seeing nothing to indicate anything more than a marginal threat (if any at all, which seems more likely at this point). You seem to be cherry-picking indices and making up the meteorology as you go. What is to suggest that the higher indices (if any) will spread into the TN Valley when there is hardly any certainty about what the actual synoptic setup will look like in the first place? LL winds are relatively weak in both cases and there is very little/no instability whatsoever or even a favorable upper level pattern especially with the southern stream shortwave to the south of the region in the first case (48-72 hrs) and the trough is becoming increasingly sheared with time if we are talking about the 168-216 hr period and is also south of the region (not to mention the area will likely be completely socked in with clouds in both cases). The way the latter system develops (168-216 hrs) really does not appear conducive to a widespread severe weather event in any part of the country. In addition, don't forget that suppression has been common recently. Also I'm not sure what that D8-10 composite is supposed to suggest, but you're not going to see severe in the TN Valley with a 500 mb look like that. Please indicate what timeframe you are talking about in your posts as well. Is it that boring in BC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z Euro suggests 3 to 5 inches of snow on west TN around hour 200. Probably a long shot but worth noting. Longshot? Depends on where you're talking about. Definitely not going to happen in Memphis or Nashville. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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