jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Possible winter storm the first week for the Valey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Impressive cold high pressures into NA toward the first week of March. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z Euro keeps the cold air just out of reach and, up to hour 150, not even much QPF to work with. After 150 two nice juicy storms roll through back to back. We'll have to keep an eye on those. 12z GGEM is looking friggin fantastic. Got a storm around hour 174 that lays down between 2 and 5 inches across the TN Valley then a statewide big dog at hour 216 giving a huge swath of middle TN 7 to 8 inches of fantasy lollipop lovin (most of TN gets at least 4 to 6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah the Euro was crap,total flip from good to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Models are flopping like a fish again. They've shown everything from gulf coast snow storms to warmer and dry over the last few days. Not sure what's causing so much madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 EPS held ground,keeps all three little systems.Think right now if you can squeeze though 2" out of any you should consider your self lucky,we'll see if anything changes the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I didn't see much on the 0z runs to get excited about. GFS has us making a run for the teens a couple of nights this week with a possible dusting Friday night. It has a juicy storm around hour 150 but the cold can't catch it in time. GGEM backed off the big dog it was showing yesterday but still shows snow potential around hour 150 especially north middle TN and a more widespread light event at hour 222. Euro op run was meh and it's control run backed up the meh-ness. They show a cold chasing moisture deal around hour 150 not unlike the GGEM and GFS. I suppose this could pan out but I'm not getting my hopes up. The good news is Euro ensembles are still showing some decent possibilities across the region. From Memphis to Bristol there are about 12 out of 51 members showing greater than 2 inches of snow and at least one big dog (in the hour 150-240 range). The mean snow totals are between 1 and 2 inches. Also the AO seems to stay fairly negative and PNA will be making a run at positive. At least we have that going for us. Edit: Robert is noting that the models are trending warmer in the short/medium range. Doesn't think they have a good handle on specific systems beyond a few days out but to keep an eye on the Euro in the longish range as it is showing some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z Euro has enough cold air in place to give part of the region some snow on the Monday/Tuesday storm. Some very heavy rain elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Stove, The period just beyond 192 looks like it could produce. Let's see where it goes. Nice stout shortwave coming east across the southern plains, low pressure getting organized in the gulf and a 1040+ HP just to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 At 216 it's trying to become something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 What I take out of the upcoming pattern is that models are going to struggle quite a bit and with two separate streams anything is going to be possible. Looks like a nice snowstorm for some in the Carolinas toward day 8-9, with another healthy shortwave rolling across the southern plains and a 1035 high in a similar position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 What I take out of the upcoming pattern is that models are going to struggle quite a bit and with two separate streams anything is going to be possible. Looks like a nice snowstorm for some in the Carolinas toward day 8-9, with another healthy shortwave rolling across the southern plains and a 1035 high in a similar position. The total snow through 240: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The total snow through 240: Looks like the same crap. Middle TN gets the shaft again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pattern is still remarkably good considering the time of year, almost March. But...and a big but...there is nada in terms of snow. Still hints of a storm somewhere Apps westward next week. I still don't see the ice set-up the GGEM is brewing, unless it is just pumping cold air down the plains w/ the big high. Overall, still a decent shot at winter weather...but every day we go into March things get that much tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Well, I may be having trouble seeing it...but Robert sees it. Here you go west and middle folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 0z Euro control run has a huge snow storm starting around hour 240 (Sunday week). The clown map looks like a unicorn barfed cotton candy all over the TN Valley. 3 to 7 inches statewide with a huge swath of west and middle TN getting a solid 6. The op run also has a miller A that almost gets us into the action but buries NC instead. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I just spewed coffee all over the keyboard when I read "looks like a unicorn barfed cotton candy all over". Definitely stealing that line for later use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 0z Euro control run has a huge snow storm starting around hour 240 (Sunday week). The clown map looks like a unicorn barfed cotton candy all over the TN Valley. 3 to 7 inches statewide with a huge swath of west and middle TN getting a solid 6. The op run also has a miller A that almost gets us into the action but buries NC instead. Something to watch. Can you share maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Storm was there for a couple days now, but now the EPS is taking it west of Memphis,something to watch anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Storm was there for a couple days now, but now the EPS is taking it west of Memphis,something to watch anyways Yeah the control run backed off that big dog but the ensembles still keep some hope alive. We're running out of time to play with these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah the control run backed off that big dog but the ensembles still keep some hope alive. We're running out of time to play with these scenarios. Noticed today the -NAO is going - around this time frame,its a storm to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC ..GUIDANCE EVALUATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY CONVERGING FOR THE WAVESFC/ALOFT THAT SHOULD GENERATE QUITE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW...ANDTO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITIONAL ZONE OFDANGEROUS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS RELATIVE AGREEMENT UPON ANELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TN VALLEY/S-CENTRALAPPALACHIAN AS OF EARLY MON TRACKING OFFSHORE MON NIGHT. PLEASECONSULT SHORTER RANGE PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED INFO ON THIS SYSTEMTHAT IS CROSSING INTO SHORT RANGE TIME SCALES. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH A MODERATELY VIGOROUS SHRTWVREACHING THE WEST COAST WED-THU AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OFLOCALLY HVY RNFL/HIGHER ELEV SNOW TO THE NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF THEWEST. ENERGY REACHING THE WEST AROUND TUE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFYINTO THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AND SUPPORT LOW PRESSURE NEARTHE GULF/SOUTHEAST COASTS BY DAYS 6-7 THU-FRI. INCREASEDAGREEMENT TOWARD THE TREND TOWARD AMPLITUDE WITH THISFEATURE...ESPECIALLY IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GFSAND 00 UTC ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...HASIMPROVED CONFIDENCE A LITTLE IN THE IDEA THAT THE AMPLIFYINGPLAINS/SE ENERGY MAY SEPARATE FROM NRN STREAM FLOW. COLD LOW LVLAIR IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES INSURROUNDING FLOW ALOFT FAVOR A RECENT TREND FOR A SOMEWHAT MORESUPPRESSED SFC TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. WPC PROGS GO ALONG WITHTHIS POTENT TREND BUT FALL SHORT OF DETERMINISTIC GFS/EC GUIDANCEIN LUE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONSIDERING LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME HVY RNFLOVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND A POTENTIALLY QUITESIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN THREAT IN THE MORE NRN PART OF THE MSTRSHIELD. IN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CNTRL-ERN STATES...EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF ANOMALIES REACHING 20-35F BELOW NORMAL ONMON... ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME ON TUE... AND 10-20F BELOWNORMAL BY THU. AT SOME LOCATIONS MIN/MAX TEMP READINGS WILLLIKELY APPROACH OR REACH CALENDAR DAY RECORD COLD VALUES. WELCOMETO MARCH? IN LIKE A LION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, just WOW at the bomb being dropped on the Carolina's by the 12z Euro, starting day 6ish. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, just WOW at the bomb being dropped on the Carolina's by the 12z Euro, starting day 6ish. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Widespread foot+ snow depth with some areas getting 19 inches haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Did the 12Z show anything for anyone in TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Did the 12Z show anything for anyone in TN? 1 to 5 inches (west to east gradient) in east TN with the mountains getting 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks Stove...you come through as usual!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hello everyone, This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area. East Asia is showing a volatile weather pattern in the next 10 days. We have no fewer than 3 systems that will be impacting Japan. Look for stormy conditions on March 3rd and 4th, 8th and 9th, and then the 11th and 12th. In between these systems we will have quick cold shots with moderation following. My severe weather thoughts on the last storm will be in the TN/OH Valley. The Bering Sea is showing a mixed bag of what’s going to happen. We first see the ridge that was over Alaska retrograde over the Bering Sea for a few days. This happens on the 4th and 5th of March, so look for a quick warm up roughly around March 24th and 25th. However, this high pressure continues to retrograde over to the East Siberia Sea of Northern Russia and, combined with a few sub-Aluetian lows, will bring the cold air back for the end of the month. Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere. Rossby wave correlation,we'll have to watch this mid month of March or around this time frame http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20131117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Controlled burns around the area today resulted in a "Smoke" OBS at KCHA today. I'm not sure if I've ever seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 12z Euro continues to advertise a coastal storm for 3-6/7. Looks like the TRIAD east. But every storm in that spot has come back northwest this winter. Might be a bit late for that trend to be honest. CFS2 continues to paint a cold March. The pattern that we have been in all winter looks to perpetuate itself long term, +PNA. Next storm chance? Looks about ten days out. Climo will begin to limit everyone outside of the mountains very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.