cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With a fresh/decent new cover of snow on top of the old crust it will be interesting to see how cold we get the next few nights. NWS already has the point at -9 tomorrow night, and -2 Mon night. Can't remember the last time we had subzero temps in March. Gonna have to do some digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 With a fresh/decent new cover of snow on top of the old crust it will be interesting to see how cold we get the next few nights. NWS already has the point at -9 tomorrow night, and -2 Mon night. Can't remember the last time we had subzero temps in March. Gonna have to do some digging. I can't remember any March's that produced anything sub zero. Having said that my point has -1° Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With a fresh/decent new cover of snow on top of the old crust it will be interesting to see how cold we get the next few nights. NWS already has the point at -9 tomorrow night, and -2 Mon night. Can't remember the last time we had subzero temps in March. Gonna have to do some digging. Check 2002...that might be a good candidate as there was a pretty big snowstorm in the early days of March and I recall some very cold temps afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I can't remember any March's that produced anything sub zero. Having said that my point has -1° Monday AM. Check 2002...that might be a good candidate as there was a pretty big snowstorm in the early days of March and I recall some very cold temps afterwards. The DVN site only goes back to March 2009. No subzero readings in March between 2009-2013. I looked around on the NCDC page but can't find where the specific monthly summaries are. Hopefully some of the climate gurus on this site have some quick links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The DVN site only goes back to March 2009. No subzero readings in March between 2009-2013. I looked around on the NCDC page but can't find where the specific monthly summaries are. Hopefully some of the climate gurus on this site have some quick links. This is a good one. I checked Moline Quad City Airport and they indeed went below zero in March 2002. http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I may be certifiable, but you guys can celebrate. I will be giving up all things weather except the daily forecast in the news and YouTube weather videos for Lent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 sorry, the call has already been made. look at 120hr guidance and nod your head. That doesn't mean you won't have troughs move through, all patterns do. lol...Angry has been poo pooing the cold and snow on the models since November in what has turned out to be a top 3 historically cold and snowy winter for the entire subforum. only question left is whether he's a troll or an idiot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is a good one. I checked Moline Quad City Airport and they indeed went below zero in March 2002. http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php Also this: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/scripts/localdata.php?loc=products&data=CHIMARREC&format=nomenu Looks like Moline was -9 on 3/4/2002. Also, Dubuque was -6 on 3/8/1996 and -5 on 3/10/2003...so it's possible Moline could have been slightly below zero on those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is a good one. I checked Moline Quad City Airport and they indeed went below zero in March 2002. http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php Ahh, thanks. Bookmarked. Now gonna go do some digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I may be certifiable, but you guys can celebrate. I will be giving up all things weather except the daily forecast in the news and YouTube weather videos for Lent. Yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Check 2002...that might be a good candidate as there was a pretty big snowstorm in the early days of March and I recall some very cold temps afterwards. Glad you mentioned that year. Found 2 days! -2° on the 3rd and -9° on the 4th! Had a low of 11° on the 22nd. ...Talk about least season cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ahh, thanks. Bookmarked. Now gonna go do some digging. Better one here: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ You have to register, but it's free. Can search by threshold, such as all sub-zero temps (or number of times per month) for MLI going back to when records started. Number of March sub-zero days per month/year for Moline. March 1960 was very impressive. 1934: 1 1943: 3 1948: 1 1952: 1 1960: 8 1962: 2 1978: 2 1980: 1 1996: 1 2002: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Local news just reported a jack knifed semi on 65... Imagine that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 sorry, the call has already been made. look at 120hr guidance and nod your head. That doesn't mean you won't have troughs move through, all patterns do. The -EPO looks like it might relax some this week and then reload by mid month, but while it relaxes it appears we'll be in a pretty strongly positive PNA, so I'm not sure where that big warm up is coming from. Also some signs on some guidance for the development of a west based -NAO. Your warm up call also flies in the face of the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sure we'll have some milder days, it's March after all, but the overall signal is colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 The -EPO looks like it might relax some this week and then reload by mid month, but while it relaxes it appears we'll be in a pretty strongly positive PNA, so I'm not sure where that big warm up is coming from. Also some signs on some guidance for the development of a west based -NAO. Your warm up call also flies in the face of the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sure we'll have some milder days, it's March after all, but the overall signal is colder than normal. How about the MJO effect? It is in phase 7 now. I'd consider 30s mild at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The key is the connection to the arctic is broken. In March, that is huge. Why don't you go on record with something. Is March going to be near average, a little above average, a little below average, well above average, well below average? Some numbers would be even better as that is easy to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Better one here: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ You have to register, but it's free. Can search by threshold, such as all sub-zero temps (or number of times per month) for MLI going back to when records started. Number of March sub-zero days per month/year for Moline. March 1960 was very impressive. 1934: 1 1943: 3 1948: 1 1952: 1 1960: 8 1962: 2 1978: 2 1980: 1 1996: 1 2002: 2 Nice. Thanks for the info. Yeah subzero days in March are even more rare than I had previously thought. Makes the potential subzero days coming up all the more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why don't you go on record with something. Is March going to be near average, a little above average, a little below average, well above average, well below average? Some numbers would be even better as that is easy to verify. March 2012 on steroids. You know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Shame that wisconsinwx won't be on the board for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How about the MJO effect? It is in phase 7 now. I'd consider 30s mild at this point! Well there's some pretty big variance on the forecast plots but from what I can see doesn't appear the MJO will remain in phase 7, maybe go to phase 8 and try to shift toward 1 even 2 or just into the COD. Phase 7 temp correlations are not working well right now anyway. True about 30s lol, that'll be shorts weather, but still below normal for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The key is the connection to the arctic is broken. In March, that is huge. With the deep snow cover over the area or just upstream across the subforum and extremely cold air that will remain over Canada, and the Great Lakes frozen over, the lack of an Arctic connection won't be as important as it normally would be. And if the -EPO reloads around or a bit after the 10th, the Arctic connection will be restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 MJO has been bootleg this winter. Can't find it right now, but there was a great article about how the RMM plots gave a sort of false signal to what "normally" occurs per phase. We saw that when some posters were all over model predicted warm phases, back in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS still looks like bollocks in the long range, anything that tries to make it past the Rockies gets sheared to pieces by the northern stream (essentially the opposite of 2012 where nothing could make it past the Plains because of the ridge in the east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 0z GEFS are cold, door-to-door, through the middle of the month. Fairly active at times, in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 0z GEFS are cold, door-to-door, through the middle of the month. Fairly active at times, in the medium to long range. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.weather.com/news/spring-milestones-when-will-it-heat-20140226?pageno=5I thought this was interesting to read as the subforum is being hit by widespread snow and with no end to the cold on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why don't you go on record with something. Is March going to be near average, a little above average, a little below average, well above average, well below average? Some numbers would be even better as that is easy to verify. Not a chance in hell will angry make a call, he'd rather make passing posts that have absolutely no chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS still looks like bollocks in the long range, anything that tries to make it past the Rockies gets sheared to pieces by the northern stream (essentially the opposite of 2012 where nothing could make it past the Plains because of the ridge in the east). Speaking of opposite, this tweet sums up that nicely: Dan Michaud @danmichaudNY 46h - @RyanMaue Traverse City is cold... but up the road in Pellston currently -33F. 23 months ago their lows were above their record highs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Speaking of opposite, this tweet sums up that nicely: Dan Michaud @danmichaudNY 46h - @RyanMaue Traverse City is cold... but up the road in Pellston currently -33F. 23 months ago their lows were above their record highs... Simply insane. That was a month I will never forget and even cherish just for the insanely beautiful weather and all the spring flowers blooming at once in union. This month appears to be literally becoming the polar opposite, which if that includes lots of snow, I'll also be happy with. We're off to a good start already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Simply insane. That was a month I will never forget and even cherish just for the insanely beautiful weather and all the spring flowers blooming at once in union. This month appears to be literally becoming the polar opposite, which if that includes lots of snow, I'll also be happy with. We're off to a good start already. You echo my sentiments exactly, March 2012 was my favorite "March" that I've lived through by the widest of margins. It was like a dream, something so insanely awesome with the beauty of the environment and everything just turning into summer instantly like that; is impossible to re-create without traveling far away. The Great March Heatwave was the weather event that made me feel the happiest out of all others if I were going by that basis. I still think about it frequently and its right at the top of events that I would do major research and in-depth analysis on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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