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March 2014 General Discussion


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With a fresh/decent new cover of snow on top of the old crust it will be interesting to see how cold we get the next few nights. NWS already has the point at -9 tomorrow night, and -2 Mon night.  Can't remember the last time we had subzero temps in March.  Gonna have to do some digging.

 

I can't remember any March's that produced anything sub zero.

 

Having said that my point has -1° Monday AM.

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With a fresh/decent new cover of snow on top of the old crust it will be interesting to see how cold we get the next few nights. NWS already has the point at -9 tomorrow night, and -2 Mon night.  Can't remember the last time we had subzero temps in March.  Gonna have to do some digging.

 

 

Check 2002...that might be a good candidate as there was a pretty big snowstorm in the early days of March and I recall some very cold temps afterwards.

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I can't remember any March's that produced anything sub zero.

 

Having said that my point has -1° Monday AM.

 

 

Check 2002...that might be a good candidate as there was a pretty big snowstorm in the early days of March and I recall some very cold temps afterwards.

 

The DVN site only goes back to March 2009.  No subzero readings in March between 2009-2013.

 

I looked around on the NCDC page but can't find where the specific monthly summaries are.  Hopefully some of the climate gurus on this site have some quick links. 

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The DVN site only goes back to March 2009.  No subzero readings in March between 2009-2013.

 

I looked around on the NCDC page but can't find where the specific monthly summaries are.  Hopefully some of the climate gurus on this site have some quick links. 

 

 

This is a good one.  I checked Moline Quad City Airport and they indeed went below zero in March 2002.

 

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php

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sorry, the call has already been made. look at 120hr guidance and nod your head. That doesn't mean you won't have troughs move through, all patterns do.

 

lol...Angry has been poo pooing the cold and snow on the models since November in what has turned out to be a top 3 historically cold and snowy winter for the entire subforum.

 

only question left is whether he's a troll or an idiot...  

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This is a good one.  I checked Moline Quad City Airport and they indeed went below zero in March 2002.

 

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php

Also this:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/scripts/localdata.php?loc=products&data=CHIMARREC&format=nomenu

 

Looks like Moline was -9 on 3/4/2002.

 

Also, Dubuque was -6 on 3/8/1996 and -5 on 3/10/2003...so it's possible Moline could have been slightly below zero on those days.

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Check 2002...that might be a good candidate as there was a pretty big snowstorm in the early days of March and I recall some very cold temps afterwards.

 

Glad you mentioned that year. Found 2 days! -2° on the 3rd and -9° on the 4th!

Had a low of 11° on the 22nd. ...Talk about least season cold.

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Ahh, thanks.  Bookmarked.  Now gonna go do some digging. :thumbsup:

 

Better one here: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

 

You have to register, but it's free. Can search by threshold, such as all sub-zero temps (or number of times per month) for MLI going back to when records started.

 

Number of March sub-zero days per month/year for Moline. March 1960 was very impressive.

 

1934: 1

1943: 3

1948: 1

1952: 1

1960: 8

1962: 2

1978: 2

1980: 1

1996: 1

2002: 2

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sorry, the call has already been made. look at 120hr guidance and nod your head. That doesn't mean you won't have troughs move through, all patterns do.

The -EPO looks like it might relax some this week and then reload by mid month, but while it relaxes it appears we'll be in a pretty strongly positive PNA, so I'm not sure where that big warm up is coming from. Also some signs on some guidance for the development of a west based -NAO. Your warm up call also flies in the face of the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sure we'll have some milder days, it's March after all, but the overall signal is colder than normal.

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The -EPO looks like it might relax some this week and then reload by mid month, but while it relaxes it appears we'll be in a pretty strongly positive PNA, so I'm not sure where that big warm up is coming from. Also some signs on some guidance for the development of a west based -NAO. Your warm up call also flies in the face of the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sure we'll have some milder days, it's March after all, but the overall signal is colder than normal.

 

How about the MJO effect? It is in phase 7 now.

 

I'd consider 30s mild at this point!  :lol:

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The key is the connection to the arctic is broken. In March, that is huge.

 

 

Why don't you go on record with something.  Is March going to be near average, a little above average, a little below average, well above average, well below average?  Some numbers would be even better as that is easy to verify.

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Better one here: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

 

You have to register, but it's free. Can search by threshold, such as all sub-zero temps (or number of times per month) for MLI going back to when records started.

 

Number of March sub-zero days per month/year for Moline. March 1960 was very impressive.

 

1934: 1

1943: 3

1948: 1

1952: 1

1960: 8

1962: 2

1978: 2

1980: 1

1996: 1

2002: 2

 

Nice.  Thanks for the info. 

 

Yeah subzero days in March are even more rare than I had previously thought.  Makes the potential subzero days coming up all the more impressive.

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Why don't you go on record with something.  Is March going to be near average, a little above average, a little below average, well above average, well below average?  Some numbers would be even better as that is easy to verify.

 

March 2012 on steroids. You know the drill.

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How about the MJO effect? It is in phase 7 now.

I'd consider 30s mild at this point! :lol:

Well there's some pretty big variance on the forecast plots but from what I can see doesn't appear the MJO will remain in phase 7, maybe go to phase 8 and try to shift toward 1 even 2 or just into the COD. Phase 7 temp correlations are not working well right now anyway.

True about 30s lol, that'll be shorts weather, but still below normal for March.

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The key is the connection to the arctic is broken. In March, that is huge.

With the deep snow cover over the area or just upstream across the subforum and extremely cold air that will remain over Canada, and the Great Lakes frozen over, the lack of an Arctic connection won't be as important as it normally would be. And if the -EPO reloads around or a bit after the 10th, the Arctic connection will be restored.

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MJO has been bootleg this winter. Can't find it right now, but there was a great article about how the RMM plots gave a sort of false signal to what "normally" occurs per phase. We saw that when some posters were all over model predicted warm phases, back in January and February.

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GFS still looks like bollocks in the long range, anything that tries to make it past the Rockies gets sheared to pieces by the northern stream (essentially the opposite of 2012 where nothing could make it past the Plains because of the ridge in the east).

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Why don't you go on record with something.  Is March going to be near average, a little above average, a little below average, well above average, well below average?  Some numbers would be even better as that is easy to verify.

Not a chance in hell will angry make a call, he'd rather make passing posts that have absolutely no chance of verifying

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GFS still looks like bollocks in the long range, anything that tries to make it past the Rockies gets sheared to pieces by the northern stream (essentially the opposite of 2012 where nothing could make it past the Plains because of the ridge in the east).

Speaking of opposite, this tweet sums up that nicely:

 

Dan Michaud @danmichaudNY 46h - @RyanMaue Traverse City is cold... but up the road in Pellston currently -33F. 23 months ago their lows were above their record highs...

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Speaking of opposite, this tweet sums up that nicely:

 

Dan Michaud @danmichaudNY 46h - @RyanMaue Traverse City is cold... but up the road in Pellston currently -33F. 23 months ago their lows were above their record highs...

Simply insane. That was a month I will never forget and even cherish just for the insanely beautiful weather and all the spring flowers blooming at once in union.

This month appears to be literally becoming the polar opposite, which if that includes lots of snow, I'll also be happy with. We're off to a good start already.

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Simply insane. That was a month I will never forget and even cherish just for the insanely beautiful weather and all the spring flowers blooming at once in union.

This month appears to be literally becoming the polar opposite, which if that includes lots of snow, I'll also be happy with. We're off to a good start already.

You echo my sentiments exactly, March 2012 was my favorite "March" that I've lived through by the widest of margins. It was like a dream, something so insanely awesome with the beauty of the environment and everything just turning into summer instantly like that; is impossible to re-create without traveling far away. The Great March Heatwave was the weather event that made me feel the happiest out of all others if I were going by that basis. I still think about it frequently and its right at the top of events that I would do major research and in-depth analysis on.

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