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March 2014 General Discussion


Geos

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Its almost a lock that this year will feature substantially more record lows than highs. 

 

 

Only one way to go next year..... I remember last winter having such a great ending, I thought there was no way that would be topped this year, but this winter was good from start to end. Front, Middle and Back loaded winter with a bit of "Overtime Bonus".

 

ha ha. Last year IMBY, it snowed several times in April, and also on May 1st. That brought us to 79" here in 2012-2013 at the foot of the Rockies.

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Forget that it's weatherbell, forget that it's 10 days out...and yes it's probably crap. 

 

...but it's just the point that we are still seeing this kind of crap....   Unreal.   (btw, that's the 12z ggem run)

 

I've got to admit their maps are pretty silly. Especially when it lumps sleet and freezing rain as all snow.

 

Probably end up being a sub 4" storm, if it survives on the models.

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I use the CoCoRaHS method. If 1/2 or more of the ground is covered, average depth is used. If less than 1/2 of the ground is covered, report a trace.

 

However, I had a few days this winter where even though more than half the ground was bare, there was so much depth in places where snow covered remained, that I reported an inch of depth. This is because if the remaining snow was spread evenly across the ground, that would be the depth. It is a combination of measuring, estimation, and experience.

 

 

Thanks for the info.  Based on that criteria,  the snowcover streak started Nov 23rd and is still going strong - 123 days and counting.   Backyard is at least 90% covered and the front still has 100% coverage.

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For those who are still holding out for that record, did you see DTX's latest aviation update?

 

 

 

000

FXUS63 KDTX 270356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1156 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY LOWERING
CEILING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THURS MORNING. SO WHILE SFC
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE ONSET OF
PRECIP LATE THURS MORNING IS LIKELY TO COME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW.
 A RAPID CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED AROUND 18Z AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS SE MI AND SFC TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THURS WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

FOR DTW...THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO METRO DETROIT /EXPECTED IN THE 15
TO 18Z TIME FRAME/ WILL EITHER BY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW FOR A
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OCCURS.
 CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A LITTLE LOW AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW TO COAT
SURFACES PRIOR TO THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL RAIN AFTER 18Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 15Z.

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They probably only need 6 or 7" now.

Active pattern in place so maybe a few sneaky

Wet snows in the next couple weeks.

Impressive snow this morning

I would be surprised for them not to break it (but then again not surprised in the same breath :lol: ... I have lived in MI too long).  But given the amount of cold air available well into April I would think northern MI and the UP will have a few decent storms to pad those numbers!!

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I would be surprised for them not to break it (but then again not surprised in the same breath :lol: ... I have lived in MI too long).  But given the amount of cold air available well into April I would think northern MI and the UP will have a few decent storms to pad those numbers!!

 

I hope so. We're going to the UP for a few days snowmobiling Easter weekend and maybe even a weekend or two after that if the snow holds out.

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You know it's a sh***y spring when you are in the south flow ahead of a low and it's still only 40 degrees, and the high temp will likely remain below normal.

 

So far here it has been nothing but thick clouds and a little drizzle.  If we're lucky we may catch a decent shower tonight, but instability is zero.

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