weatherbo Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The lake ice needs to break up around you, so these air masses can get modified! http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/html/modis/modis.php?region=m&page=1&template=subℑ=a1.14075.1822.LakeMichigan.143.250m.jpg Awesome shot! That northern Lake ice has been there in some cases since late December. It's pretty thick, 3-4' in areas. with prevailing west winds, I don't see the far north losing ice cover completely until early May. a few high southerly winds/waves would definitely chip away at it. Local news guy said L MI wouldn't be swimmable until August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Another crap March day on tap... Still see no 50Fs in our extended.. Day 6 and 7 look laughable... Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 -8.4º at LAF for this March so far. I guess the "number to beat" is 33.5º or -7.3º, which was the average temperature/departure of last March here. Payback for Morch 2012 has been a.... 6z GEFS 6-10 and 11-15 day temperature departures say we finish the rest of the month "in style". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Even below freezing the sun does its dirty work this time of year. While the snow in shaded areas remains a brick (this is where most of the snow was anyway), whatever snow is left in the sun goes more and more each day. Depth will be down to a T tomorrow morning...which stops the 1"+ snowcover streak at 77 consecutive days. However....tomorrow will also be the 100th consecutive day with a T+ of snowcover, and that T wont be going anywhere for a bit (quite a few hardpacked drifts, but definitely less than 50% coverage now). Through March 17th...season stats on snowcover...104 days with T+ snowcover...93 days with 1"+ snowcover....75 days with 5"+ snowcover....52 days with 10"+ snowcover! Yes, we have had MORE days at 10"+ snowcover (52) than we average 1"+ snowcover days in a winter (47). Took this comparison shot of backyard...it isnt a perfect alignement for a comparison shot because I took the shot too close on Feb 18th, but it shows the snowpack on Feb 18th (deepest day of winter, called avg depth 21" that day) versus March 16th. Took these leaving work today...there is a road under that lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 March 18th will be our 100th Consecutive Day with Snow Cover (1 inch or greater). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 March 18th will be our 100th Consecutive Day with Snow Cover (1 inch or greater). Congrats! --- High of 32° here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 March 18th will be our 100th Consecutive Day with Snow Cover (1 inch or greater). Had some snow on Dec 8th. 0.8" and bunch of 0.1"-0.3" following days but not a consistent depth of 1"+...actually the 11th began 1"+ depth to me at least some could argue the 8th but here is a snow squall that dropped almost two inches in a short time that started this streak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Congrats! --- High of 32° here today. Thanks. If the models are close to correct I have two more records at Flint that will fall ... 1.2" to break the snowfall record and 3 more days to break the most temps 32 or below. We'll see (seem easy but I have learned that you never know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Had some snow on Dec 8th. 0.8" and bunch of 0.1"-0.3" following days but not a consistent depth of 1"+...actually the 11th began 1"+ depth to me at least some could argue the 8th but here is a snow squall that dropped almost two inches in a short time that started this streak... According to that records web page being updated by DTX today is the 99th day for Flint. I believe we got a bit more LES near US23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I dont think they were lake squalls...rather....little disturbances in early December. We started 1"+ depth by morning of Dec 9th here. Tomorrow will be day #100 in a row of snowcover here (T+). In those 100 days, 93 had 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 NAM showing a good soaking here tomorrow night. 0.40" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 SE Michigan folks...wanted to mention a minor observation I made yesterday. I occasionally am up in Macomb (25 mile area - best friend lives there)....and this is the 2nd time I have noticed this. First time was December, and I noticed it again yesterday. Did some Christmas shopping after our big Dec storm, we had upwards of 9" OTG here and Id say they had 5, maybe 6" tops. Then was back up there for a party during the rain/ice storm Dec 21st and while it was seemingly 33F and rain in both places, yet Id say they were holding a good 1, perhaps 2" more cover at the time than I was. Fast forward now to March. I was up there a few weeks ago, and while the snow was really too deep to eyeball depth, it was CLEARLY deeper downriver. Was back again yesterday, and while the ancient, remaining snowpack now is really dependent on layout of subdivisions, trees/openness, etc....it appeared there was more snow left there. Obviously 35-40 miles north should be enough said, but without any major gradient storms cutting through, and when snow consistently starts out deeper here, its kind of funny to think that a few degrees in temp, few mph in wind, or slightly lower elevation makes a huge difference in eating away at the snow faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 SE Michigan folks...wanted to mention a minor observation I made yesterday. I occasionally am up in Macomb (25 mile area - best friend lives there)....and this is the 2nd time I have noticed this. First time was December, and I noticed it again yesterday. Did some Christmas shopping after our big Dec storm, we had upwards of 9" OTG here and Id say they had 5, maybe 6" tops. Then was back up there for a party during the rain/ice storm Dec 21st and while it was seemingly 33F and rain in both places, yet Id say they were holding a good 1, perhaps 2" more cover at the time than I was. Fast forward now to March. I was up there a few weeks ago, and while the snow was really too deep to eyeball depth, it was CLEARLY deeper downriver. Was back again yesterday, and while the ancient, remaining snowpack now is really dependent on layout of subdivisions, trees/openness, etc....it appeared there was more snow left there. Obviously 35-40 miles north should be enough said, but without any major gradient storms cutting through, and when snow consistently starts out deeper here, its kind of funny to think that a few degrees in temp, few mph in wind, or slightly lower elevation makes a huge difference in eating away at the snow faster. I noticed this as well last weekend when I was in Ontario, they have a lot more snow or did at the time than we did, especially from Sarnia to London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Mississippi River continues to open back up rapidly.... this cool weather should really help slow the amt of runoff into the river. Went hiking....better have a good orthopedic surgeon if you want to hit the bluffs around here. Still spots with a lot of snow, but its thinning fast. Ice everywhere on the walking trails...dangerous. Had to hike in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Have some thunder in the forecast for tonight. Hope to hear a few rumblers out there this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 A really frosty morning out there. Thunder in my forecast as well after 10pm. Up to a 0.5" for parts of the region now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 SE Michigan folks...wanted to mention a minor observation I made yesterday. I occasionally am up in Macomb (25 mile area - best friend lives there)....and this is the 2nd time I have noticed this. First time was December, and I noticed it again yesterday. Did some Christmas shopping after our big Dec storm, we had upwards of 9" OTG here and Id say they had 5, maybe 6" tops. Then was back up there for a party during the rain/ice storm Dec 21st and while it was seemingly 33F and rain in both places, yet Id say they were holding a good 1, perhaps 2" more cover at the time than I was. Fast forward now to March. I was up there a few weeks ago, and while the snow was really too deep to eyeball depth, it was CLEARLY deeper downriver. Was back again yesterday, and while the ancient, remaining snowpack now is really dependent on layout of subdivisions, trees/openness, etc....it appeared there was more snow left there. Obviously 35-40 miles north should be enough said, but without any major gradient storms cutting through, and when snow consistently starts out deeper here, its kind of funny to think that a few degrees in temp, few mph in wind, or slightly lower elevation makes a huge difference in eating away at the snow faster. Grew up in Macomb and the best response I can say is YEP notice which county I do not live in now!!! The NW part near Romeo/Almont does ok. I love where I live now by multitudes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Mississippi River continues to open back up rapidly.... this cool weather should really help slow the amt of runoff into the river. Went hiking....better have a good orthopedic surgeon if you want to hit the bluffs around here. Still spots with a lot of snow, but its thinning fast. Ice everywhere on the walking trails...dangerous. Had to hike in the woods. Yes I've notice this as well. Despite the large, dense snowpack, thick river ice and deep frost, we've managed to avoid even minor flooding to this point, and the snowpack is nearly toast now. Conservation Authorities around here have had this spring pegged as the higest in years for potential of a big spring flood, but the sluggish transition to spring has prevent that from happening. Still, the ground is quite frozen, river ice remains and the water table is slowly rising. A few big soakers passing by and things could turn on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Grew up in Macomb and the best response I can say is YEP notice which county I do not live in now!!! The NW part near Romeo/Almont does ok. I love where I live now by multitudes!!! its interesting because my friend used to live in Bloomfield now Macomb, and it seemed he was usually saying more snow in Bloomfield than I had, now its usually less. Of course, different winters have different storm tracks (and im relying on my friends eyeball method most storms ). But what i DONT get is why the snow starts deeper here but in the end melts faster. Its not as if theres some crazy temp difference. Who knows. Hell for all I know we probably had 20 more inches there this winter, certainly a deeper peak depth...but in the end they will have a few more 1"+ snowcover daysm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yes I've notice this as well. Despite the large, dense snowpack, thick river ice and deep frost, we've managed to avoid even minor flooding to this point, and the snowpack is nearly toast now. Conservation Authorities around here have had this spring pegged as the higest in years for potential of a big spring flood, but the sluggish transition to spring has prevent that from happening. Still, the ground is quite frozen, river ice remains and the water table is slowly rising. A few big soakers passing by and things could turn on a dime. good points. I've seen street flooding but it hasn't been a disaster by any means and we had 4" water locked in our snowpack 2 weeks ago (I know as I did core samples). Most of the snow is gone, I mean most people still have some nice drifts and patches in their yards but the majority is melted. And there are a tons of huge piles still. But disaster seems to have been avoided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Interesting look to the national radar today. Dat snowband: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The streak is over... Will finish with 100 consecutive days of 1"+ snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Josh, I noticed less snow at DTW on Sunday compared to Howell. We consistently had more water content all winter, mainly because of SE warm air surges during 2 events. The more NW, the less of an impact those events have. You can see it all winter in the water content maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Just reached 40* despite a SE wind off the ice box called Lake Michigan. Pretty sunny out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Grew up in Macomb and the best response I can say is YEP notice which county I do not live in now!!! The NW part near Romeo/Almont does ok. I love where I live now by multitudes!!! South Central Macomb is arguably the worst spot in Michigan for snow maybe except extreme South St.Clair county and Eastern Wayne they might be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 South Central Macomb is arguably the worst spot in Michigan for snow maybe except extreme South St.Clair county and Eastern Wayne they might be worse. What was interesting is south of M59 especially toward 16 mile in Macomb is a pretty good area for t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro showing low to mid 60s in northern IL on Friday now. Upper 60s/Low 70s south of I-70 and west of the IN/OH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro showing low to mid 60s in northern IL on Friday now. Upper 60s/Low 70s south of I-70 and west of the IN/OH border. GFS MOS showing upper-50's/low-60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Josh, I noticed less snow at DTW on Sunday compared to Howell. We consistently had more water content all winter, mainly because of SE warm air surges during 2 events. The more NW, the less of an impact those events have. You can see it all winter in the water content maps. True. We peaked at about 4" water content in our snow Im sure you had 5"+. But Howell probably had as deep or deeper snow than DTW much of feb/mar anyway (outside of the open fields up there). Im talking NE of me in Macomb. Maybe it WAS the SE wind, because we clearly had more snow on the ground most of the winter here yet Sunday it would appear there was more left up there. Whats a few extra days of dirty snow though . BTW...LOVE the sig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 South Central Macomb is arguably the worst spot in Michigan for snow maybe except extreme South St.Clair county and Eastern Wayne they might be worse. My sister lives in St Clair Shores (this was her first winter there) and a couple times my parents would go there to see the baby and do their snow and would comment it seemed deeper in Wyandotte. Of course...this was a bad winter to gauge whos better than what because everyone had snowcover all the time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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