Radioman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro also equally as fun. 12-14 + in E. IN and OH. 8-10 for LAF area it looks like and about 5-8 for Chicago on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Or it could be 20F below normal like this week Let's hope for the lesser! Otherwise it is suppression city for both of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro also equally as fun. Nice. Still relatively far out there...but it would be amazing to tack on another 6"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Beginning of LOT"s afternoon AFD THERE ARE SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT SPECIFICS ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS RANGE. Then at the end of the AFD RIDAY AND BEYOND...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE ALASKA RIDGE LEADING TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE SOME PHASING OF EXISTING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH ENERGY FROM THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM. THE DEGREE WITH WHICH THIS OCCURS IS UP IN THE AIR BUT DO HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER TROUGH COMING DOWN THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM CONNECTION MAY BE KEY IN GETTING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE PRECIP LATER FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD PHASING OCCUR THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER HYBRID PACIFIC/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH WE HAVE SEEN A FEW TIMES THIS WINTER. MANY VARIABLES NEED TO PLAY OUT FIRST BUT A SHIFT TO THE MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS REASONABLE SUPPORTING SOME MODERATING OF TEMPS BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I concur Cyclone, what a tease of a winter if that came to fruition, and I guarantee the next major storm after that would cut into Wisconsin lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Judging by the Euro...looks like the cold air splits with a chunk heading west and another chunk heads east... So now it looks like the coldest air will move in next week, with the weekend being a hair (?) warmer... Love the Rocky Mtns doing their thing with the shallow arctic air: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Judging by the Euro...looks like the cold air splits with a chunk heading west and another chunk heads east... So now it looks like the coldest air will move in next week, with the weekend being a hair (?) warmer... Love the Rocky Mtns doing their thing with the shallow arctic air: A banana high sets up actually. It really doesn't move any further south (the pool of coldest 850s). We do stay chilly, Monday and Tuesday before the 850's start moderating later in the week. Jet stream become more zonal with more troughiness south of Alaska as ridging is pushed east and south. One map of 500mb wind speed and streams at 216 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Chilly? Its almost criminal how cold the 12z GFS looks for next week. After day 7 it looks a little warmer...temps near freezing. Still with norms near or at 40F....still below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Chilly? Its almost criminal how cold the 12z GFS looks for next week. After day 7 it looks a little warmer...temps near freezing. Still with norms near or at 40F....still below normal. The first week of March looks brutal. It would help if we can get a fresh snowpack but either way some places are going to put up huge departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah...i looked at it and my eyes about bulged out of my head. Not right. I can handle cold air, but this year its unrelenting. We should come close to 50 subzero days when next week is over... Just wait. Next winter will be a complete torch and Saukville will cancel winter by New Years Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Clouds quickly moving in from the north, while south winds have kicked the temp to 12F at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah...i looked at it and my eyes about bulged out of my head. Not right. I can handle cold air, but this year its unrelenting. We should come close to 50 subzero days when next week is over... Just wait. Next winter will be a complete torch and Saukville will cancel winter by New Years Day Without lake influence, you probably average 3 times as many sub zero days as does an equal latitude in Michigan. Probably 3 times as many sunny days. We have had quite a string of sunny cold days in Michigan since Feb 1st, nearly unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah...i looked at it and my eyes about bulged out of my head. Not right. I can handle cold air, but this year its unrelenting. We should come close to 50 subzero days when next week is over... Just wait. Next winter will be a complete torch and Saukville will cancel winter by New Years Day Haha. Well only have to wait another 3 hours for the next run. GFS is always squirrely after day 5. Lol, at the -30°s in northern MO on the 5th! Up to double digits now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I was looking back at the March thread from last year, and you had some great analysis in the last week of February...about what might be in store for March 2013. Just a tip of the cap from me to you. Here's the March 2013 temp departures map. A fairly impressive month for cold. It was of course very snowy for some too. If LAF could repeat that...we'd break 80" for the season. Not counting on that of course. March 2013 temperature departures.png Thanks for the kind words. CPC has a better handle this year painting below normal chances over the lakes but I think the negative departures will be more widespread in the eastern half to two thirds of the CONUS than what they predicted. Given the consistency of the CFS and its good performance with February I'd say any pattern flip this month will occur after we've built up negative anomalies that are too much to overcome and that any big pattern flip probably won't occur til close to or even after the equinox. The MJO also appears it will quickly go through phases 1-2 which are favorable for cold in the subforum. The forecasted dip in the AO will help with the very cold first week of March and since daily averages rise pretty quickly this time of year, it won't take much to build up impressive negative departures. Regarding the snow, all we need is this weekend to produce well and one or two more events and it'll be yet another above normal snow month. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pretty amazing loop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Obviously it's not quite in our subforum...but the forecast high in Cut Bank MT on 3/1 is -16. The normal high for that date is 38...which would be a -54 departure. Billings MT is similar...normal high 45 on 3/1, forecast high -6, departure -51. Also, Billings may break their seasonal snowfall record. They have 81.5" so far. Record is 98.7" in 1996-97. But due to their Chinook climate, they can't maintain a snow cover. Their snow depth of 14" on 2/25/2014 is the highest depth since 3/5/1985. The cold air won't give up without a fight as the calendar turns to March. After the bitter cold here tomorrow, another cold shot may hit early next week...and if we have a decent fresh snow cover, we could go sub-zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Anyone have any insight if we (I) should expect a 50F day in the next 20 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Anyone have any insight if we (I) should expect a 50F day in the next 20 days? You have a better chance than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ugh. anyone thinking this pattern will just flip is in store for a long Spring. It will slowly fade away into May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 anyone thinking this pattern will just flip is in store for a long Spring. It will slowly fade away into May/June. Sounds fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There certainly will be enough cold air so that when warm air does intrude the lapse rates should be great for svr wx. We're certainly not going to have a March 2012 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Perhaps after the 12th, between the 12th and 19th? Not really any chance before then. Yeah...I'm having some major doubts on any warmth anytime soon. Really depressing. I guess if we can just get to avg, it would be better then single digits that we've been dealing with as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We need to get past these next two big snow systems, then moderate enough to get the southern snowpack that is going to get laid down melted off, so when we do get that inevitable warm shot, its longer lasting and comes right in vs being modified by southern snowpack. I was looking at temps day by day from last spring here in RFD, we never really broke the 30s and 40s by any meaningful amount and for any meaningful duration until the last week of April. Then we shot right into summer in May. I would hope for moderation in late March, and then a real spring this year in April with 50's and the occasional 60's, lows above freezing. Best case scenario imo, but total wishcasting. Everybody seems to think they understand the current pattern to an extent, but I don't know. Western ridge like this is unprecedented. Analogues are hard to use for forecasting at this point because there are so few to use. MJO changes and transition to El Nino are clues to the late spring and early summer, but I think we're really pretty helpless at this point in any guess as to what the long range holds, just have to wait it out. PS I hope the CPC deep blue maps are as useful as their red maps have been. Exact opposite of what will actually happen. the warm gulf of Alaska is goin nowhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We will break into a more consistent above average regime at some point but it's anybody's guess as to when. If El Nino eventually develops as forecast then it may mean better odds of cooler weather down the road. Perhaps there will be a window in April or May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 We need to get past these next two big snow systems, then moderate enough to get the southern snowpack that is going to get laid down melted off, so when we do get that inevitable warm shot, its longer lasting and comes right in vs being modified by southern snowpack. I was looking at temps day by day from last spring here in RFD, we never really broke the 30s and 40s by any meaningful amount and for any meaningful duration until the last week of April. Then we shot right into summer in May. I would hope for moderation in late March, and then a real spring this year in April with 50's and the occasional 60's, lows above freezing. Best case scenario imo, but total wishcasting. Everybody seems to think they understand the current pattern to an extent, but I don't know. Western ridge like this is unprecedented. Analogues are hard to use for forecasting at this point because there are so few to use. MJO changes and transition to El Nino are clues to the late spring and early summer, but I think we're really pretty helpless at this point in any guess as to what the long range holds, just have to wait it out. PS I hope the CPC deep blue maps are as useful as their red maps have been. Exact opposite of what will actually happen. Biggest thing to do is get rid of the snow cover to the south once we get past the next 4 days. With the March sun the way it is, it should not take real long, especially if it is higher ratio like it is forecast to. Then we just need milder and sunny days to work away at our glacier here. Even 30s would be good enough to make a serious dent in it. Skilling showed temps in the 30s and even 40° the last half of next week! Once we get rid of the old snow cover, then any other time it snows it will have a harder time covering the ground for any great length of time. The sun angle always wins out. Of course the troughiness can last much longer! I think by the lake here, there will be quite a few foggy days when the milder air tries to advance its way in. the warm gulf of Alaska is goin nowhere fast. Need to get some troughs and storms to upwell some colder deeper water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I do think i'll keep an eye on the 168-240hr Euro... at least something showing some milder temps. Need to get out ice fishing, but don't want to get frostbite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 if this happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 if this happens... But, but the snow cover... Joking aside, even if we maintained the same pattern we are in, the snow will be going away. It was under 20 all day today but sunny so we were melting all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 But, but the snow cover... Joking aside, even if we maintained the same pattern we are in, the snow will be going away. It was under 20 all day today but sunny so we were melting all day. Nothing crappier than freezing your butt off while the only good part of cold weather slowly fades into a grey filthy crust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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