Geos Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 I never put much stock in the long range GFS. 38° now. Warm air charging across Iowa - up to 56° at DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Long range GFS is pretty brutal. Those snowcover records, if it's right, are going to be obliterated. It will be interesting. Because the dense snowpack thats left will still take a lot of warmth to melt. Obviously its melting a bit every time the temp is in the mid-30s or higher or the sun is out, and obviously near heavily traveled roads and freeways there is already plenty of grass showing, but thats par for the course in urban and suburban. Right now the snowpacks ratio is about 3-1. Snow depth is an average of snowcover in the undisturbed measuring/weather station vicinity (for most people, their backyards, for the official weather stations an undisturbed area away from the runways and concrete of the airports, etc). Even once grass patches appear, snow depth will still be a number (like it says in the snow measuring guidelines, if 50% of the ground is 6" snow and 50% is bare, the snow depth is 3"). Not until the snowcover is less than 50% does depth go down to a T, so we have a long ways to go. Some melting is coming the next two days, but very well so may be more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 It will be interesting. Because the dense snowpack thats left will still take a lot of warmth to melt. Obviously its melting a bit every time the temp is in the mid-30s or higher or the sun is out, and obviously near heavily traveled roads and freeways there is already plenty of grass showing, but thats par for the course in urban and suburban. Right now the snowpacks ratio is about 3-1. Snow depth is an average of snowcover in the undisturbed measuring/weather station vicinity (for most people, their backyards, for the official weather stations an undisturbed area away from the runways and concrete of the airports, etc). Even once grass patches appear, snow depth will still be a number (like it says in the snow measuring guidelines, if 50% of the ground is 6" snow and 50% is bare, the snow depth is 3"). Not until the snowcover is less than 50% does depth go down to a T, so we have a long ways to go. Some melting is coming the next two days, but very well so may be more snow. I was wondering about that criteria too. Was thinking it was more like 60-70% coverage. Due to the uneven snow surface here, it will be interesting to see if it drops below 50% tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I was wondering about that criteria too. Was thinking it was more like 60-70% coverage. Due to the uneven snow surface here, it will be interesting to see if it drops below 50% tomorrow. No, its 50%. Which makes perfect sense actually. Say you have 70% of your yard covered to an average depth of 10" and 30% 0, how on earth can you call that a trace of depth? Of course, usually the state of our current snowpack is one seen in the up north snowbelt in spring, not down here. I still have 100% coverage in my yard here, average depth 11-12". You talking you may go down to 50% coverage in your yard? Hmm I thought you had more snowcover than that still. Remember...taking grass patches into account along heavily traveled, salted roads is about as honest as taking into account a man-made snow pile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 No, its 50%. Which makes perfect sense actually. Say you have 70% of your yard covered to an average depth of 10" and 30% 0, how on earth can you call that a trace of depth? Of course, usually the state of our current snowpack is one seen in the up north snowbelt in spring, not down here. I still have 100% coverage in my yard here, average depth 11-12". You talking you may go down to 50% coverage in your yard? Hmm I thought you had more snowcover than that still. Remember...taking grass patches into account along heavily traveled, salted roads is about as honest as taking into account a man-made snow pile Mine is 90% I'd say. In town just east of me I'd say it's about 80%. The lowest area locally is Kenosha (70%) north of me and I'm sure they will melt out mostly tomorrow. They have less old snow left. 7-8" on average here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Streak of snow depth above 12" here will likely come to an end tomorrow at 37 days. Nuts. Also the streak of depth above 4" is at 68 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Melting has kicked up a notch. Temperature rise close to the grid projection - now 41°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Raw 00z NAM output has LAF dipping below zero at the end of the run. Someone shoot me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Raw 00z NAM output has LAF dipping below zero at the end of the run. Someone shoot me. Yeah I noticed the Euro was looking chilly for Wednesday night locally too. DTX already going with 6 for Wednesday night and barring fresh snow cover, that might be a touch high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah I noticed the Euro was looking chilly for Wednesday night locally too. DTX already going with 6 for Wednesday night and barring fresh snow cover, that might be a touch high. Well, if the NAM somehow verifies it would be one of the latest below zero readings on record here. There were back to back below zero temps on March 16/17, 1900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Probably one of the warmest nights in quite some time. Still 42 after midnight. Snow continues to wither away slowly, even in the dark of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 healthy snow melt overnight. should be gone by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Glacier is still holding on here in the residential areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hung around 40° all night here. Definitely lost more snow. Street has scattered puddles on it. Will see if the snow cover streak officially ends today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Glacier is still holding on here in the residential areas.yeah we lost maybe a half inch overnight. Depth about 11". We hung at 36-37F all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm guessing the 4" left at Pearson is mostly glacier from before the December icestorm. That hopefully will make it more resistant to these temps progged to get into the 40s today and tomorrow. Otherwise, the consecutive days with snowcover streak may come to an end at 93 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 At 9:45am we are within a couple degrees of yesterday's high temp. If the high clouds can remain thin we have a shot at mid 50s. There are a few grassy spots appearing, but there is still a lot of snow that needs to be melted. My backyard snow is several inches deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Had to help unbury a car stuck in a snow bank last night. There's a slab of ice a few inches thick at the bottom of the deepest areas that I wouldn't wish upon my worst enemies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Today we'll breach the 50 degree mark for the first time since way back on Dec 4th when we hit 52. Looks like we'll do about 55 here. Just south of here where the ground is bare they should easily make the low 60s. Still about 2-3" of grungy cement out there. There are a few bare spots appearing now near buildings, and around some trees where the snow had been blown away more than other areas. Looks like we'll finish out the winter with 38 subzero days. DEC: 9 JAN: 14 FEB: 13 MAR: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 52 on the bank clock, might make a run at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wow, only 1° difference between Cyclone and I. Yet there is more snow up wind of my area. Large puddles appearing everywhere, resembling small ponds. Rivers will definitely be heading towards bankful today. Lake MI this morning from Racine. The ice in back of the snow bank across the sidewalk is on the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not hard to tell where the models have resolved the snow cover lol. This is the HRRR, which is probably the most extreme at keeping surface temps colder over snow cover. The RAP and NAM are pretty bad too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 52 on the bank clock, might make a run at 60 mid-springlike temps followed 36 hours later by a snowstorm. My fav. setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Leg drenchers at every corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not hard to tell where the models have resolved the snow cover lol. This is the HRRR, which is probably the most extreme at keeping surface temps colder over snow cover. The RAP and NAM are pretty bad too though. That's horrible! Just hit 50° here in downtown Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It's up to 50 here. First 50+ temp since 12/4 (54). Snow depth is still 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Snow depth is still 10"+. lol, brutal essentially 0 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Im one of the few saying this...YUCK to the sun lol. I cannot remember a time when there were so many patches of grass showing along heavily traveled roads and the snow was still so deep in residential areas. the plow piles are clearly staying WELL into April at minimum. We have a snocone glacier out there and it feels so warm. Starting to get excited about snowstorm potential tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 You must have more old snow Chicago Storm. When I got up this morning at 6:30 I was reading about 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol, brutal essentially 0 here I noticed this sort of difference locally as well. Downtown Detroit has like 3-5" where as out in the neighborhoods away from the wind and where there is more shade the depth is around 12-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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