Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EarthSat has the 0.05" QPF line out by eastern LI for the 132-138 period. At 132 the 850 0C line is just crossing south Jersey. So, if there is any snow, its not much. My rookie eyees per SV snow map has maybe 1-2" phl, ttn, bucks, mont. in the end. Scranton into Central PA. is jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Thanks for the objective analysis now off to the nyc forum to see the spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 My rookie eyees per SV snow map has maybe 1-2" phl, ttn, bucks, mont. in the end. Scranton into Central PA. is jackpot zone. With crazy ratios maybe, but its pretty clear that less than 0.05" actually falls as snow on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If the Euro works out we must congratulate Mitch who already called this threat's biggest potential problem being an inland cutter. I ignored Mitch's post (in a nice way ) but yeah he would score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Real curious what the ensembles will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Real curious what the ensembles will show. I'm gonna bet colder. Just because that's what they've been showing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Omg dont go ovet there.....serious infighting between yanks and allsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EURO/GFS show a -AO, neutral to neg NAO, PNA to neutral and a -EPO/-WPO. I would be shocked if we don't get any snow with this storm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It is on topic, it is an issue people are discussing related to the storm. It isn't banter, it is a fair disagreement regarding possible accumulation regarding the storm. Didn't you cancel winter two days ago anyway? That was me too, while I shop for crow. Edit: after fully reading the thread, I may not have to eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro ens colder no surprise. Burbs get a decent hit. Philly proper s and e still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro ens colder no surprise. Burbs get a decent hit. Philly proper s and e still warm. just stopped in to post the same. as expected. sounds slushy per others posting. 0z euro will probably will be a nice snow hit, hopefully i will avoid looking at 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Storm must be in the future...SQL error kicking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 mysql errors already...5 days before the storm ? ohh boy. anyway, are these news guys borderline-slow or what. 12z Euro shows rain , not snow. http://hudsonreporter.com/bookmark/24644155-BREAKING-European-weather-model-predicts-New-Jersey-in-path-of-massive-snowstorm-on-Monday article published 2 hours ago, so they couldn't of been dumb enough to use 0z...or could they? BREAKING: European weather model predicts New Jersey in path of massive snowstorm on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 just stopped in to post the same. as expected. sounds slushy per others posting. 0z euro will probably will be a nice snow hit, hopefully i will avoid looking at 18z runs. Too bad 18z- went colder. Pretty good hit for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Too bad 18z- went colder. Pretty good hit for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Too bad 18z- went colder. Pretty good hit for the region not looking, 0z next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 not looking, 0z next Your constitution is better than mine. I want to keep peeking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 mysql errors already...5 days before the storm ? ohh boy. anyway, are these news guys borderline-slow or what. 12z Euro shows rain , not snow. http://hudsonreporter.com/bookmark/24644155-BREAKING-European-weather-model-predicts-New-Jersey-in-path-of-massive-snowstorm-on-Monday article published 2 hours ago, so they couldn't of been dumb enough to use 0z...or could they? Its really scary that they based that on the Severe Weather NJ page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 mysql errors already...5 days before the storm ? ohh boy. anyway, are these news guys borderline-slow or what. 12z Euro shows rain , not snow. http://hudsonreporter.com/bookmark/24644155-BREAKING-European-weather-model-predicts-New-Jersey-in-path-of-massive-snowstorm-on-Monday article published 2 hours ago, so they couldn't of been dumb enough to use 0z...or could they? thats is crazy. hopefully many dont follow that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 thats is crazy. hopefully many dont follow that site. I follow the site....it was just model discussion which he makes clear but he does drop the big adjectives if the model shows something significant.......his forecast is made clearly separate from the discussion......I think he is alright fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Your constitution is better than mine. I want to keep peeking lol. Yes, it's part of the, ahem, affliction. There are times when I have an "enforced" hiatus away from forum reading/model watching (sometimes even sleep intervenes), and when I get back onto the computer there is that mixed anticipation, not sure whether it's going to be that Christmas morning as a kid feeling, or something not quite as enjoyable. From what I understand the biggest uncertainty at this point has to do with the placement of the PV in Canada. The Euro has it farther west in Canada. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Something to keep an eye on before the 00z runs is the position of the ULL over Canada. This is the most important feature for this storm. It helps usher in the cold air, and surpresses the low enough so we don't get too warm. Note the differences on the EURO vs. the colder GFS.... When looking at the 00z models roll in tonight, root for this ULL to be stronger and farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Something to keep an eye on before the 00z runs is the position of the ULL over Canada. This is the most important feature for this storm. It helps usher in the cold air, and surpresses the low enough so we don't get too warm. Note the differences on the EURO vs. the colder GFS.... Great info. Seems like a fine line on the PV placement and this feature will help tell the tale. When looking at the 00z models roll in tonight, root for this ULL to be stronger and farther SE. EURO1.gif GFS1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z gfs, very nice thru 114 for many in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 many receive 24hrs+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 32 line never gets north of the city, there may be some sleet in there as 925 gets pretty close, but a GREAT run, NAM/GFS trended better with the PV, lets see if GGEM holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Leaving out the sun angle, sub-surface magma melting factor etc banter.... ~10" seems reasonable based on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The sleet line is dangerously close to Philly this run, surface is uber cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Meh run of the mill high end SECS/low end MECS this isn't going to get my snow depth to 40" j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It does sleet in Philly mid-day Monday on this run. Even so, its still probably 8-10" there. ABE suffers from decreased QPF (less than an inch). Overall I'd say that the GFS spits out a general 8-12" storm from PHL to ABE. Maybe a bit less Pocs though ratios might help more. South definitely less with more mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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