KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 My thoughts are, let the snow get here, I'll worry about the stickage, ratios, total accumulations, etc. then. Yes, it's March, with the sun angle and average temps much different from January or early February, with all the differences that can mean during an event, but I 'm not going to fret over those details as long as we can get snow. I shoveled my driveway over the last hour, the residual snow is all melted off of it, some grassy areas will likely reappear this afternoon, but I thoroughly enjoyed the snowfall and it looks great out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Also, this is just a weenie saying, but how often has it steered anyone wrong: "Never good to be bullseyed 5 days out". I wanted to say that. It's a kiss of death like the radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 IWM Maps have a very good algorithim actually that calculates ratios based off of modeled atmospheric conditions. They have been far better than WX Bell, SV or any other service people pay lots of money for that just do 10:1 and call it a day. They also don't factor in sleet or other mixed precip as snow like the other maps do. When the bulk of the precip falls Monday night into Tuesday/Wednesday temps at all levels as modeled by the GFS verbatim support higher ratios. You must be focused on the areas southeast, because along I-95 and certainly NW, the bulk of the snow is earlier than Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Someone has to be a negative nelly, because otherwise you guys just pile on the positivity and get crazy expectations I think being stuck in Elko has influenced your frame of mind. Bet your posts would be different overall if you were back in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Good thing the clocks haven't changed yet with this pending event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Also, this is just a weenie saying, but how often has it steered anyone wrong: "Never good to be bullseyed 5 days out". Can't disagree with that, but at least the bullseye is shifting slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Todays snow was heavy not light....what if rates are only 1/4 inch an hour monday Not out here it wasn't. Anything but heavy. Maybe a 5 minute burst of moderate but the snow was on the road by then. sun angle is a bigger issue as the day progresses Thanks for that. Riveting. You guys are acting like we are talking March 30th with the precip foretasted to only fall between 11-4 during the day. From what I'm hearing the moderate pricip falls Sunday night through Monday night. Again, I'm not saying we are going to get anything better than 10:1 ratios but with temps falling into the 20's and possibly teens this snow is not going to melt on contact.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think being stuck in Elko has influenced your frame of mind. Bet your posts would be different overall if you were back in NJ. This is quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Someone has to be a negative nelly, because otherwise you guys just pile on the positivity and get crazy expectations I disagree with nothing you have said, but hey if you had to pick a winter to be positive, this is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM shows a big storm as well, a little warmer, especially on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Do I need to start a march accumulation thread in this subforum also? Cmon philly folks we're better than this banter....keep on topic please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM looks like a BIG hit...don't have precip for 144 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Do I need to start a march accumulation thread in this subforum also? Cmon philly folks we're better than this banter....keep on topic please. It is on topic, it is an issue people are discussing related to the storm. It isn't banter, it is a fair disagreement regarding possible accumulation regarding the storm. Didn't you cancel winter two days ago anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This is quite possible but will you come back east IF it turns out to be a doozy storm????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM looks like a BIG hit...don't have precip for 144 though it also looks like a more realistic progression than the GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 My thoughts are, let the snow get here, I'll worry about the stickage, ratios, total accumulations, etc. then. Yes, it's March, with the sun angle and average temps much different from January or early February, with all the differences that can mean during an event, but I 'm not going to fret over those details as long as we can get snow. I shoveled my driveway over the last hour, the residual snow is all melted off of it, some grassy areas will likely reappear this afternoon, but I thoroughly enjoyed the snowfall and it looks great out there. Thank You!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It is on topic, it is an issue people are discussing related to the storm. It isn't banter, it is a fair disagreement regarding possible accumulation regarding the storm. Didn't you cancel winter two days ago anyway?jokingly I did and I will eat crow for it. Whenever Ji or I cancel winter we end up with a storm to track lol. Ggem is light on the waa snows but seems to have a decent hit at 144. Would like to see that wave hug the coast just a hair closer though. Maybe it will trend that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 jokingly I did and I will eat crow for it. Whenever Ji or I cancel winter we end up with a storm to track lol. Ggem is light on the waa snows but seems to have a decent hit at 144. Would like to see that wave hug the coast just a hair closer though. Maybe it will trend that way? I agree with the WAA part but I would say based on 144 is better than a decent hit. we shall see. moving really slow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM 850mb and 925mb temps are cold for all snow for everyone north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Great 12z trends, especially with the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I agree that the ratios won't be great but just a simple looks out the window today shows me that the snow will have no problem sticking to even paved surfaced if the air mass that's being modeled for this storm holds true. It was snowing very lightly this morning with temps in the mid 20's and the roads were covered. The sun angle won't change that dramatically in 4 days. But look outside your window now. That snow is long gone now the sun is at its highest. In January, that stuff would still be swirling around on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If you guys want something positive out of me (which is totally non-meteorological)... I've got that "sinking feeling". That feeling that I'll be watching yet another east coast storm from far away. So you can cheer on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Great 12z trends, especially with the coldDoctor yes or Doctor no today? I'm going with 'yes'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'd love a Pros thoughts on the accumulation issue. We already heard from Ray (sort of), but we know he is a pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If you guys want something positive out of me (which is totally non-meteorological)... I've got that "sinking feeling". That feeling that I'll be watching yet another east coast storm from far away. So you can cheer on that.You haven't flown out for one in a while? You r overdue Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 But look outside your window now. That snow is long gone now the sun is at its highest. In January, that stuff would still be swirling around on the roads. I'm not arguing the fact that when the sun comes out after the storm is gone the snow will melt much faster than it would in January. All I'm saying is that during the storm, with the clouds, the cold ground from this air mass, and temp in the low 20's to possibly teens, the snow will stick. That's it. I'm not even buying the 15"+ amounts because of how long of a duration the "15" falls. But I think verbatim 10"+ is easily obtainable. Especially in the N & W burbs where mixing is less of an issue during the onset of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If you guys want something positive out of me (which is totally non-meteorological)... I've got that "sinking feeling". That feeling that I'll be watching yet another east coast storm from far away. So you can cheer on that. Not arguing the details, which can and will change, but the signal is pretty strong for a storm Sunday-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 But look outside your window now. That snow is long gone now the sun is at its highest. In January, that stuff would still be swirling around on the roads. agreed, but that isnt how accumulation works. I dont think anyone is arguing that compaction will keep the amounts on the ground lower than the amount that actually falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not arguing the details, which can and will change, but the signal is pretty strong for a storm Sunday-Tuesday. I could still envision a course alteration which would either swing PHL to mainly rain or mainly miss south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 agreed, but that isnt how accumulation works. I dont think anyone is arguing that compaction will keep the amounts on the ground lower than the amount that actually falls. Well, you might want to review the new snow measurement guide. Its on the main forum page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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