RedSky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 PHL was 36.4, 33.2, 31.8 for 09-10 monthly averages. ABE was 31.4, 28.8, 29.0. PHL is 38.7, 28.3, 33.3 for 13-14 monthly averages, so far. ABE is 31.7, 22.6, 26.4. Where the snow fell makes a differences. Thanks for the stats much colder for Allentown jan/feb the philly numbers totally surprise me wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z gfs is a good hit much colder and a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hurricane says "another winter storm in the 7 day" we'll see when he elaborates a bit later on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z gfs game still on. some light snow early sunday, break in afternoon then kicks into high gear. very long duration event for the area per this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 fwiw well..that would do it for the Philly record I was debating about last week in the vendor thread.. we shall see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is REALLY wacky at 500mb, it almost tries to develop a secondary late in the run because the PNA spikes and a 500mb ULL dives down...Long way to go guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Those maps have ratios. So.... toss 'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The 850 0 line is really close to Philly, so I don't think that map is that accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 for anyone looking at those snowfall maps thinking it will be even remotely that much, you are foolish. The rates for the entire event are quite low to moderate and in March, that will not equate to 16-18". Sorry, but just keeping it real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ray (as we all know)..it's still just fantasy anyway at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 SV maps that use a 10-1 has 12+ from se PA-nyc…obv i think for phl most of that comes on the 2nd wave, yet they still get snow on the first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Are the people worried about the snow "sticking" on march 3rd talking about the streets? its cold before and during, There would not be much problems with stick-age on non paved surfaces if that run was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is colder and more suppressed. I'm almost wondering how far that trend goes as it has been trending this way for several runs. Anyway, its March, and its a long duration snow. You won't get good ratios on a long duration March snowfall. It'll compact over that long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 for anyone looking at those snowfall maps thinking it will be even remotely that much, you are foolish. The rates for the entire event are quite low to moderate and in March, that will not equate to 16-18". Sorry, but just keeping it real I dont know how this storm will turn out, but the March thing is killing me. The storm is taking places during the first few days of March. If the temps are cold enough, it will stick. Light snow stuck to everything here this morning. Do you really think 4-5 days later that ceases to happen? I will agree that there will be more melting because of the sun angle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is colder and more suppressed. I'm almost wondering how far that trend goes as it has been trending this way for several runs. Anyway, its March, and its a long duration snow. You won't get good ratios on a long duration March snowfall. It'll compact over that long time. agreed that the ratios wont be fantastic. Maybe slightly better when snow intensity increases. My point is that even light snow can stick on March 3 with a cold airmass ,that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is colder and more suppressed. I'm almost wondering how far that trend goes as it has been trending this way for several runs. Anyway, its March, and its a long duration snow. You won't get good ratios on a long duration March snowfall. It'll compact over that long time. I love you Ray, but you're never positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is colder and more suppressed. I'm almost wondering how far that trend goes as it has been trending this way for several runs. Anyway, its March, and its a long duration snow. You won't get good ratios on a long duration March snowfall. It'll compact over that long time. The euro had temps falling into the teens as the event unfolds for at least up here. Look at what happen today? The airmass is not exactly early march temps for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I dont know how this storm will turn out, but the March thing is killing me. The storm is taking places during the first few days of March. If the temps are cold enough, it will stick. Light snow stuck to everything here this morning. Do you really think 4-5 days later that ceases to happen? I will agree that there will be more melting because of the sun angle.. I bolded this part for a reason. The snow fell during early morning hours. This next event (as modeled) is a long duration event that will have snow falling during daylight hours. With low rates during those hours, it will be tough to accumulate unless the rates are higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I bolded this part for a reason. The snow fell during early morning hours. This next event (as modeled) is a long duration event that will have snow falling during daylight hours. With low rates during those hours, it will be tough to accumulate unless the rates are higher. but also falling during two nights as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 2m temps are in the teens and 20's at 18z Monday 12z gfs. Horrible for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I bolded this part for a reason. The snow fell during early morning hours. This next event (as modeled) is a long duration event that will have snow falling during daylight hours. With low rates during those hours, it will be tough to accumulate unless the rates are higher. Here's the key: Even if you get good ratios for a while... then the snow will stop. Or get really light. And it tends to compact when it does that, any time of year but especially in March. So, good ratios will get defeated by the long duration. Even if 6-hour measurements might add up to, say, 14-15", at the end of the storm you'd probably have more like 10-12" new on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I love you Ray, but you're never positive Someone has to be a negative nelly, because otherwise you guys just pile on the positivity and get crazy expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Here's the key: Even if you get good ratios for a while... then the snow will stop. Or get really light. And it tends to compact when it does that, any time of year but especially in March. So, good ratios will get defeated by the long duration. Even if 6-hour measurements might add up to, say, 14-15", at the end of the storm you'd probably have more like 10-12" new on the ground. well...I'll just have to live with that then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 IWM Maps have a very good algorithim actually that calculates ratios based off of modeled atmospheric conditions. They have been far better than WX Bell, SV or any other service people pay lots of money for that just do 10:1 and call it a day. They also don't factor in sleet or other mixed precip as snow like the other maps do. When the bulk of the precip falls Monday night into Tuesday/Wednesday temps at all levels as modeled by the GFS verbatim support higher ratios. It's all conjencture at this point but summarily dismissing a map without knowing anything about it is kind of foolish especially for a meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I agree that the ratios won't be great but just a simple looks out the window today shows me that the snow will have no problem sticking to even paved surfaced if the air mass that's being modeled for this storm holds true. It was snowing very lightly this morning with temps in the mid 20's and the roads were covered. The sun angle won't change that dramatically in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Todays snow was heavy not light....what if rates are only 1/4 inch an hour monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Also, this is just a weenie saying, but how often has it steered anyone wrong: "Never good to be bullseyed 5 days out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I agree that the ratios won't be great but just a simple looks out the window today shows me that the snow will have no problem sticking to even paved surfaced if the air mass that's being modeled for this storm holds true. It was snowing very lightly this morning with temps in the mid 20's and the roads were covered. The sun angle won't change that dramatically in 4 days. sun angle is a bigger issue as the day progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Todays snow was heavy not light....what if rates are only 1/4 inch an hour monday We had two hours of light snow in PHL that stuck to everything. the rates were right around 1/4 inch an hour. The heavy snow only took place the last 30 min of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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