RedSky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 0z ECM is colder though initial overrunning may start as light rain, coastal off the delmarva. Not as long an event as GFS but good amount of snow from the coastal. End result is about as much snow as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Anyone who takes a peek at the 500mb evolution on the GFS should know better than waste their carpel tunnel on it tonight. Show me the same result 24hr out and I'll still doubt it plays out as progged. It's going to be a long 3 days with some sort of frozen precip for the mid-Atlantic Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro starts as rain at PHL, changes to sleet, and then to a few inches of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 What did it show for TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 What did it show for TTN? A little colder overall but essentially the same. So a bit more sleet, a bit more snow, a bit less rain, but not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If you want numbers... maybe 2-4" snow at PHL, 3-5" at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Mt Holly long term AFD this morning leaves the door wide open for the Philly snow weenie. Also to note are some facts on cold ytd and mtd. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ok folks, how reliable are the Instant Weather Maps snowfall "forecasts" compared to some of the others. Here, I put together the 48 hour qpf map and the 48 hour total snowfall for the 6z GFS. Based on standard 10:1, they seem somewhat off, especially if you look at Eastern PA where it appears that it's depicting 1.2 to perhaps 1.5 inch of liquid, yet the total snowfall is 14-18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ok folks, how reliable are the Instant Weather Maps snowfall "forecasts" compared to some of the others. Here, I put together the 48 hour qpf map and the 48 hour total snowfall for the 6z GFS. Based on standard 10:1, they seem somewhat off, especially if you look at Eastern PA where it appears that it's depicting 1.2 to perhaps 1.5 inch of liquid, yet the total snowfall is 14-18 inches. Untitled-1.jpg Snow map is high there Steve, 6z GFS is 1.2" qpf at ABE and 1.12" at AVP (Wilkes barre) It's all snow but that snowmap would be suggesting 15:1-20:1 ratios, which seem to be pretty high Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Snow map is high there Steve, 6z GFS is 1.2" qpf at ABE and 1.12" at AVP (Wilkes barre) It's all snow but that snowmap would be suggesting 15:1-20:1 ratios, which seem to be pretty high That's pretty much what I was thinking too. This may be more banter, but I feel this is where some of the problem lies with the social media forecasters. They don't look at the qpf, just the snow maps. Then they post them, and then the frenzy starts when their followers (the general public) see the high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's pretty much what I was thinking too. This may be more banter, but I feel this is where some of the problem lies with the social media forecasters. They don't look at the qpf, just the snow maps. Then they post them, and then the frenzy starts when their followers (the general public) see the high totals. That's the whole problem with social media. Social media has little to do with distributing good information. It has everything to do with r getting people excited, getting themselves attention, and thereby attracting new followers/likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 With all the potential sleet/ice the city might see, I sense a disaster on the roads. When it rains and goes to sleet that always makes the road extremely slick, add snow on top of that and you got a full on nasty situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's the whole problem with social media. Social media has little to do with distributing good information. It has everything to do with r getting people excited, getting themselves attention, and thereby attracting new followers/likes. Yup. 8-12 just doesn't sell like 14-18 does. Anyway, back on topic. Despite the snow maps, after the 18z run which basically whiffed and had most of the snow north of I-80, the 0z and 6z have come south considerably. I suppose, especially if the 12z shows a similar scenario, that we are starting to trend toward a snowier solution farther south as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pretty good modeling consensus from euro, gfs and ensembles for heavy snow accross Pa and N NJ. Snow ice boundary somewhere accross extreme SE Pa and C NJ sinking south into De +S NJ by end of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Due to the timing I wouldn't be surprised if kids had off Monday and then delayed/off Tuesday as well, going to be a long spring for them lol... This kind of mix is terrible on the roads. Sleet loves to form a nice sheet of ice after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Due to the timing I wouldn't be surprised if kids had off Monday and then delayed/off Tuesday as well, going to be a long spring for them lol... This kind of mix is terrible on the roads. Sleet loves to form a nice sheet of ice after a while. I heard schools may add 5-10 minutes each period/class (longer days) to make up for lost time rather than extending the year. Monday looks messy...really don't feel like losing my power again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If this storm pans out, then I agree that this winter will be going into the record books. I think 2010 was one of the best because of the amount of snow we got. Thats the one thing were missing, a 12"+ snowfall for everyone. My hope is that the 12z models hold today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 If this storm pans out, then I agree that this winter will be going into the record books. I think 2010 was one of the best because of the amount of snow we got. Thats the one thing were missing, a 12"+ snowfall for everyone. My hope is that the 12z models hold today. It melted quickly which I wouldn't consider a "winter"....brief happiness. IMO this winter w/o a future storm kills 2010 in just about every aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Current Wxsim with 6z data has our 2nd blockbuster snow event of the season for NW Chesco It has light snow arriving Sunday AM becoming heavy late in the day with heavy snow continuing occasionally mixing with sleet during Monday before ending overnight into Tuesday AM - Total snow accumulation 16" to 20" temps remaining in the 20's during the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This winter is one of the best in my 40+ years of wearing snow goggles. 2010 was great due to snowfall/frequency, but this year has been IMO a slightly colder version. With the exception of 2 notable warmups, it has felt like true winter since December. With the prospects of march looking rather Lionish....lots of icing on a great cake. Enjoy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Due to the timing I wouldn't be surprised if kids had off Monday and then delayed/off Tuesday as well, going to be a long spring for them lol... This kind of mix is terrible on the roads. Sleet loves to form a nice sheet of ice after a while. Schools in my area are just eliminating holidays like MLK day and Presidents Day and even shortening their spring breaks now instead of adding days at the end of the year, which is still possible if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Current Wxsim with 6z data has our 2nd blockbuster snow event of the season for NW Chesco It has light snow arriving Sunday AM becoming heavy late in the day with heavy snow continuing occasionally mixing with sleet during Monday before ending overnight into Tuesday AM - Total snow accumulation 16" to 20" temps remaining in the 20's during the entire event Hey Now!!! at least for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It will no doubt change at 12z and probably be a driving rain storm.....and we still need to have the GFS out to sea solution on Friday before it comes back to reality on Saturday at 12z Hey Now!!! at least for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikerep Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I heard schools may add 5-10 minutes each period/class (longer days) to make up for lost time rather than extending the year. Monday looks messy...really don't feel like losing my power again. Gotta get permission from the state before that happens. Delaware schools have already done it, PA Dept. of Ed. doesn't allow for it, yet. School year based on # of days in, not necessarily hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I like 2010 becuase of the 3 "blizzards", during Feb. Thundersnow, really wet snow. Lots of assist EMS calls during that time, no access to a lot of the roads. I would say the call volume we have had this winter must be close to all time(not sure on the #s back in 94). Another ice storm would kill us, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This winter is one of the best in my 40+ years of wearing snow goggles. 2010 was great due to snowfall/frequency, but this year has been IMO a slightly colder version. With the exception of 2 notable warmups, it has felt like true winter since December. With the prospects of march looking rather Lionish....lots of icing on a great cake. Enjoy. Nut Actually it is MUCH colder than 2010 with january/ february in the running for the coldest two winter combo months in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Actually it is MUCH colder than 2010 with january/ february in the running for the coldest two winter combo months in history At PHL, through the 25th, average is 33.4 this year, 33.8 in 2010. At ABE, the difference is much larger... 27.0 this year versus 29.7 in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 At PHL, through the 25th, average is 33.4 this year, 33.8 in 2010. At ABE, the difference is much larger... 27.0 this year versus 29.7 in 2010. How is that even possible Ray. What was December 2009 it must have been very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Current Wxsim with 6z data has our 2nd blockbuster snow event of the season for NW Chesco It has light snow arriving Sunday AM becoming heavy late in the day with heavy snow continuing occasionally mixing with sleet during Monday before ending overnight into Tuesday AM - Total snow accumulation 16" to 20" temps remaining in the 20's during the entire event Now this would be cool if it panned out. It would refresh my front yard stick or maybe bury it . fyi, don't post this on FB or twitter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 How is that even possible Ray. What was December 2009 it must have been very cold PHL was 36.4, 33.2, 31.8 for 09-10 monthly averages. ABE was 31.4, 28.8, 29.0. PHL is 38.7, 28.3, 33.3 for 13-14 monthly averages, so far. ABE is 31.7, 22.6, 26.4. Where the snow fell makes a differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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