bricktamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 FWIW, 3z RAP came north, bringing .5" line up to PHL. Interestingly, it showed a 35-40 dbz band over N VA, but current radar shows that band roughly 25-30 miles north, over WV and N MD. Just grasping at straws here, and Ray you're probably right, but I don't want to give up just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on here, as if it should've been easy to predict 1-2" for NYC and 3-4" for Philly 2 days ago or even yesterday. Sure, there was a trend south, but extrapolating to where it looks like we're going to end up would've been an unusual and risky call. Assuming things play out as currently expected now (I won't say it's over till it's over), I don't think there was a professional meteorologist out there, with real forecast responsibilities, who was predicting less than 4-6" for NYC or less than 6-8" for Philly more than 24 hours ago (or even 12 hours ago) and certainly not 48 hours ago. That, to me, says that while, on the surface, this is a bust, if it was so obvious, how come it took so long for all of the pros to lower their forecast accumulations, especially in the last 12 hours? Was there some sort of weird groupthink going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on here, as if it should've been easy to predict 1-2" for NYC and 3-4" for Philly 2 days ago or even yesterday. Sure, there was a trend south, but extrapolating to where it looks like we're going to end up would've been an unusual and risky call. Assuming things play out as currently expected now (I won't say it's over till it's over), I don't think there was a professional meteorologist out there, with real forecast responsibilities, who was predicting less than 4-6" for NYC or less than 6-8" for Philly more than 24 hours ago (or even 12 hours ago) and certainly not 48 hours ago. That, to me, says that while, on the surface, this is a bust, if it was so obvious, how come it took so long for all of the pros to lower their forecast accumulations, especially in the last 12 hours? Was there some sort of weird groupthink going on? Well I suppose in any job of public service you have to protect against any real, worst-risk scenario. I think they were exercising their role in protecting the public, even if so to their determinant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on here, as if it should've been easy to predict 1-2" for NYC and 3-4" for Philly 2 days ago or even yesterday. Sure, there was a trend south, but extrapolating to where it looks like we're going to end up would've been an unusual and risky call. Assuming things play out as currently expected now (I won't say it's over till it's over), I don't think there was a professional meteorologist out there, with real forecast responsibilities, who was predicting less than 4-6" for NYC or less than 6-8" for Philly more than 24 hours ago (or even 12 hours ago) and certainly not 48 hours ago. That, to me, says that while, on the surface, this is a bust, if it was so obvious, how come it took so long for all of the pros to lower their forecast accumulations, especially in the last 12 hours? Was there some sort of weird groupthink going on? It probably had a lot to do with model instability (i.e., flip flopping) that was going on. Hard to trust them enough to make changes when there were a lot of fluctuations, though the overall trend was definitely obvious on Saturday. Also, no one wants to flip flop their forecast like the models do... you don't want to go 6-10, then drop to 3-6, then go back up to 4-8 or 5-9. You lose trust for that, and it also makes us feel stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 FWIW, 3z RAP came north, bringing .5" line up to PHL. Interestingly, it showed a 35-40 dbz band over N VA, but current radar shows that band roughly 25-30 miles north, over WV and N MD. Just grasping at straws here, and Ray you're probably right, but I don't want to give up just yet That northern high reflectivity band is bright-banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That northern high reflectivity band is bright-banding. Yeah, you're right. Still, radar looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 02UTC HRRR snowfall through 17UTC (noon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sleeting pretty good here (tell Rib) - a coating on top of the glaze of ice now. Temp. 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 03UTC HRRR snowfall through 18UTC (1PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I actually like those HRRR accumulations maps. Haven't really had much time to dig into the models too much tonight but from a couple quick glances it did seem like the hi res models were ticking a tad (and I mean a TAD) northward this evening. Told the fam and friends 3-6" for delco after checking the 12Zs today, which is still looking like a reasonable call, though prob in the lower half of the range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The latest one is a bit further north with the higher accums, but drier in the north... essentially a tighter gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 03UTC HRRR snowfall through 18UTC (1PM) Wow. Looks very nice with the 6-8 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Gradient continues to tighten around Philly... 04UTC HRRR snowfall through 19UTC (2PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Gradient continues to tighten around Philly And Philly is oh so close to the 6"...within a few pixels anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Radar looking decent, nice backbuilding of heavier stuff just to our west. Snow is a tad heavier then light, don't want to say moderate - as the visibility is down but I believe it's the wind. Everything getting covered at this point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 And it continues, the gradient is even tighter around Philly... 05UTC HRRR snowfall through 20UTC (3PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 And it continues, the gradient is even tighter around Philly... 05UTC HRRR snowfall through 20UTC (3PM) Close to the 8-10 there. o.o The gradient is very tight there. 2-10 in just one county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Latest RAP a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Than its previous few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Updated Mt. Holly map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Round 2....fail .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Super bust here; just a coating to an inch. Well, it's the only one that disappointed this winter, so can't complain much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 .7" Well, at least it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on here, as if it should've been easy to predict 1-2" for NYC and 3-4" for Philly 2 days ago or even yesterday. Sure, there was a trend south, but extrapolating to where it looks like we're going to end up would've been an unusual and risky call. Assuming things play out as currently expected now (I won't say it's over till it's over), I don't think there was a professional meteorologist out there, with real forecast responsibilities, who was predicting less than 4-6" for NYC or less than 6-8" for Philly more than 24 hours ago (or even 12 hours ago) and certainly not 48 hours ago. That, to me, says that while, on the surface, this is a bust, if it was so obvious, how come it took so long for all of the pros to lower their forecast accumulations, especially in the last 12 hours? Was there some sort of weird groupthink going on? The southward trend started on my last midnight shift on Friday. But, its tough enough to forecast conditions as is, then to start forecasting where the models will trend to 24 to 48 hours from now and base your forecast on what you think they will show. This is especially true before the 00z run Sunday when the last short wave was still offshore. This one was the opposite of most this winter where there was the perpetual northwest trend. Its nice to have stability, but the truth is most winters are not 2009-10 and most of the time the busts in March have to do with unfavorable accumulation parameters which knock ratios down, not being in so deep in the cold air. As Ray posted I am personally loathe to whipsawing a forecast downward until there is over 90% certainty that there is no way a mistake has been made. This first week of March has had its share of busts over the last 10 to 15 years, not the same causes, but seems to be a tough time of year to get it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well said. Thank-you for the info from Gloucester County and some really fantastic photos that you let us share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Gradient continues to tighten around Philly... 04UTC HRRR snowfall through 19UTC (2PM) well shows you how good the HRRR model was in this case 2.3" here in Media... think that scale had us at like 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For a bit of comic relief....find the video on Fox 29 with Steve Keely nearly getting killed by a plow. This guy is a real clown. http://www.myfoxphilly.com/video?&clipId=9904292&autostart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thank-you for the info from Gloucester County and some really fantastic photos that you let us share. You're very welcome. And thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For a bit of comic relief....find the video on Fox 29 with Steve Keely nearly getting killed by a plow. This guy is a real clown. http://www.myfoxphilly.com/video?&clipId=9904292&autostart=true I heard Preston and Steve talking about it this morning and had to see it. It did not disappoint. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2FpSbWoVUQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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