RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 22z HRRR 23z HRRR 00z HRRR Total snowfall thru 13z on all three maps. Clearly it is getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The HRRR is starting to get nice. 4-6 on there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 [quote name="RowanBrandon" post="2850243" timestamp=" Total snowfall thru 13z on all three maps. Clearly it is getting better. Thanks Better SNJ and philly worse further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2z RAP brings moderate/heavy snow southern NJ up to about Mt Holly 12 hour qpf. 6 and 15hr qpf. 75 unless I am reading it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2z RAP brings moderate/heavy snow southern NJ up to about Mt Holly 12 hour qpf. 6 and 15hr qpf. 75 unless I am reading it wrong WOW. That's amazing. o.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This reminds me of the December 8, 2013 system with a death band. One will likely setup shop somewhere with this waa/overunning system. If you look at a current radar you can see some banding forming down near Dover. I'm wondering if that's the jackpot zone tonight across the Delaware Bay into Cape May. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2z RAP brings moderate/heavy snow southern NJ up to about Mt Holly 12 hour qpf. 6 and 15hr qpf. 75 unless I am reading it wrong Not sure that's completely accurate, though it is trending better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You aren't reading the models wrong "TOM" The radar returns will continue to fill in. I was praying for a march bust, but I still see a significant snowfall from Wilmington, DE through a line to slightly above Atlantic City, NJ. I'm new on the site, but have said this from 2 days out. The Quant. Prec. will conceivably override enough to lay out a nice dumping over SE Jersey. I moved from SW Salem County, so I'm still getting use to BARNEGAT, NJ being called "SOUTH JERZ" I consider this central....but who knows.... People will do better than expected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not sure that's completely accurate, though it is trending better How accurate is this model? Seems very good here. 0.70-0.80 QPF here. This would be an 6-12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 0 gfs is not to promising for more than 1 to 3 inches for the immediate Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not sure that's completely accurate, though it is trending better This reinforces my earlier post regarding the banding feature just starting to fill in where the heaviest qpf is shown on the above map. Matches up well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 From reading the MA thread there seems to be a definite slight northward trend with qpf in the most recent HRRR, RAP, NAM, and now GFS runs. Good news for those of us in the southern part of the PHL region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yes we got that impression from your prior 5 posts. 0 gfs is not to promising for more than 1 to 3 inches for the immediate Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 From reading the MA thread there seems to be a definite slight northward trend with qpf in the most recent HRRR, RAP, NAM, and now GFS runs. Good news for those of us in the southern part of the PHL region. I don't see it. Dryer for Philly. Newark, de looks okay to my eyes for 6 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How accurate is this model? Seems very good here. 0.70-0.80 QPF here. This would be an 6-12 storm. It's decent but the HRRR is better, and that shows less precip. I'd go with 3-6 for you, 6-12 is really pushing it, I think you'll have to go close to the Delaware Bay to see those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yes we got that impression from your prior 5 posts. Its going to be SOO close for us down here in Wilmington/Newark. I honestly don't know what to think. Its looks like models want to use C and D canal as a cutoff point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's decent but the HRRR is better, and that shows less precip. I'd go with 3-6 for you, 6-12 is really pushing it, I think you'll have to go close to the Delaware Bay to see those totals. Oops. I misread the model name anyways. I thought it said the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2z RAP brings moderate/heavy snow southern NJ up to about Mt Holly 12 hour qpf. 6 and 15hr qpf. 75 unless I am reading it wrong (oops, I thought this was the NYC thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm not sure the arctic front is making much progress right now. Looks like it is hung up in northern de.precip Could come north a little. Radar is firing things look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 FYI this is the round where Philly may see the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I really hate saying this for fear of being chastised but.. The radar returns and infrared cloud trajectory Are looking very good at this hour for SE pa on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I really hate saying this for fear of being chastised but.. The radar returns and infrared cloud trajectory Are looking very good at this hour for SE pa on south. I concur! No chastisement forthcoming from this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Radar certainly looks to be filling in over N MD, hopefully it maintains its current trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS is definitely, absolutely, and unequivocably a bit south. All-around compared to 18Z, mainly Philly north compared to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I really hate saying this for fear of being chastised but.. The radar returns and infrared cloud trajectory Are looking very good at this hour for SE pa on south. A risky, yet honorable prediction, I think thats a fair, defendable stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I concur! No chastisement forthcoming from this direction.Phew..lol!!Thinking I should have traveled back to NH this weekend to bring back another truck load for area wide delivery... that trip back in January got us all off to a good streak around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakeNBake22z Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS is definitely, absolutely, and unequivocably a bit south. All-around compared to 18Z, mainly Philly north compared to 12Z. Yes but the RAP nowcasting model has been looking better and better with each run. At this point I'd rather have the RAP NORTH AND GFS SOUTH RATHER THAN RAP SOUTH AND GFS NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Phew..lol!! Thinking I should have traveled back to NH this weekend to bring back another truck load for area wide delivery... that trip back in January got us all off to a good streak around here Yeah, that worked out pretty well didn't it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, that worked out pretty well didn't it Going to have to settle for mental imagery and meditation this time around to make it happen!Ommmmmm Ommmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Going to have to settle for mental imagery and meditation this time around to make it happen! Ommmmmm Ommmmmmm I'll give it a couple of minutes before I go back outside and see if we changed over to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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