Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For fun, C DE on the 4km NAM @ 18z was in the .25-.5 range, now they're in the 1-1.25 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR looking a little better in latest run Not better, just another hour of snowfall. Previous run ended at 13Z this one ends at 14Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We're getting OT here, but I do think long range models have value. They are more likely to get the overall pattern right, than not. At least out 7-10 days. But people were harping on the details of this one 5 days ago. That was a mistake. Sorry Ray but going overall pattern accuracy is without details is awfully JBish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Nam got wetter on its northern side, ticked a bit, but is such a sharp cutoff its crazy. If you draw a line from Hagerstown to Paul's house to Long Branch... north of there, NAM is drier. South of there, NAM is wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I would be shocked if Philly airport gets more than 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If you draw a line from Hagerstown to Paul's house to Long Branch... north of there, NAM is drier. South of there, NAM is wetter. overall this run was poor for snow if you live north of Wilmington DE if I am looking at the correct model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 overall this run was poor for snow if you live north of Wilmington DE if I am looking at the correct model. Well, if by poor you mean 3 inches or less, you are, essentially correct. Points due east of Wilmington on the Jersey shore will do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 0 Z NAM precip. Not a snow run for anyone north of Wilmington DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not better, just another hour of snowfall. Previous run ended at 13Z this one ends at 14Z You can compare at 13z on each of them and it is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 New nam not good for Philly imop. Less qpf. Time to drop the warnings. Hard to drop the warnings only because a shift of 20 miles puts PHL back into the heavy snow for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 0 Z NAM precip. Not a snow run for anyone north of Wilmington DC i don't think anyone in those locations was expecting a snow run at this point. At least I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mt. Holly bagged the warning north of Philly and the advisory north of Mercer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hard to drop the warnings only because a shift of 20 miles puts PHL back into the heavy snow for a time. But, looking at radar trends it is quite easy to drop the warnings at this point when combined with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mt. Holly bagged the warning north of Philly and the advisory north of Mercer. that sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 0 Z NAM precip. Not a snow run for anyone north of Wilmington DC This statement is confusing. Clarify please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mt. Holly bagged the warning north of Philly and the advisory north of Mercer. There you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 But, looking at radar trends it is quite easy to drop the warnings at this point when combined with the models. well i guess the NWS didnt think it was quite easy, as they kept the warnings for PHL for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 well i guess the NWS didnt think it was quite easy, as they kept the warnings for PHL for now. Cause philly criteria is 4", which is still a small possibility. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Updated map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mt. Holly just caved, dropping the warnings from Mercer/Monmouth (now advisories for 2-4") and dropping all of the advisories north of there (1-2"). Pretty soon, I'll just be getting flurries. NWS-NYC did the same, dropping all advisories. Maybe 1-2" at best. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So Glenn said ON AIR Thursday late AM that there is no way this doesn't happen, that it's not one of those storms that can miss us. He emphasized MAJOR SNOWSTORM repeatedly and in his graphics. He is the best but what failed him? The LR models or his depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Good luck SE Jersey!! You guys down there deserve it! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR continues to look better FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So Glenn said ON AIR Thursday late AM that there is no way this doesn't happen, that it's not one of those storms that can miss us. He emphasized MAJOR SNOWSTORM repeatedly and in his graphics. He is the best but what failed him? The LR models or his depiction? Simply put, no one nails them all, who cares? Almost all of the models except the GGEM had good hits just 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Simply put, no one nails them all, who cares? Almost all of the models except the GGEM had good hits just 2 days ago. And lots of people said "ignore it, its the GGEM", remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Simply put, no one nails them all, who cares? Almost all of the models except the GGEM had good hits just 2 days ago.Thanks for making my point about the wastes of time that are the LR models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR continues to look better FWIW Why does everyone keep saying this??? Please show me a side by side of the same end time that shows it "better". Everyone seems to be missing the fact that it is still snowing between 13, 14 and 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Why does everyone keep saying this??? Please show me a side by side of the same end time that shows it "better". Everyone seems to be missing the fact that it is still snowing between 13, 14 and 15Z HRRR near the end of its run shouldn't be given that much weight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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